2050
- Projected car population = 2.5 B. Estimated oil per 1B cars = 60 mbpd
2040
2030
- World oil production shortfall = 18 MBD (demand = 118 mbpd)
2021/22
- Germany to close 6 (2021) + 3 (2022) nuclear power stations
- China car pop = 200m; gas shortage=90 bcm/yr
> oil & gas price up
2018
- World energy demand proj = 140% of 2014
- RUS gas supply to CHN starts; 38+30bcm/yr @$350/kcm = $700b (EU Turkey 170bcm, UKR 70)
- CNY to be fully convertible
2017
- EU banks to reduce assets by EUR3.2T & raise cap 50B to comply with Basel III
- US Next big credit refinancing due to start
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-05/another-looming-credit-crunch
> reduced money supply, deflation?
2016
- IND, PAK joins SCO??
- UK EU exit (Brexit) referendum: YES (vs Scotland N Ireland NO) > UK Breakup, Euroland
- NATO declare cyber-attack will trigger collective defense!
- interest rate of 10-year Bund goes NEGATIVE!
- Swiss referendum on free USD2,500/month per person: voted NO
- FRA to lead study on incr use of IMF SDR
- SPIMEX plan to trade oil in Ruble
- COMEX paper gold to physical ratio 300-1 (vs 30-1 n 2013)
- Deutsche Bank admit fixing gold/silver (2013 US CFTC said no fixing after 5-yr investigation!)
- 2nd senior GER reporter say 'fix' by CIA (also see Operation Mockingbird)
- 37 countries setup Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
- BRICS Devt Bank start ops (BRICS Africa investment $67b vs 80b total)
- CHN ICBC-Standard join LME gold fix, buy Barclays & DB London gold vaults
(HSBC, BOE vaults only others in London)
- CHN Fosun buy NY Chase Plaza with JPM gold vault (world largest, >football field)
2015
- EU LTRO; US QE expire??
> liquidity crunch & rate hikes (unless extended) > EMkts collapse!!
- World oil production shortfall = 10 mbpd
> oil price = USD 200?
- FSB agreement to limit stock margin to 50% > reduce stock, incr bond holdings
- CHN sold $250b UST in 2015 (after shifting holdings to Belgium)
- CHN-SA to settle 40% of $100B trade using CNY
- CNY included in IMF SDR (11% weighting came mostly from Euro and GBP's share)
- BRICS Development Bank start ops ($100b); BRICS hold 50% global currency reserve
- SEP UN approve Palestine & Vatican flag in UN
- MAY FIFA corruption cases erupt (weeks aft FIFA drop 2014 Palestine request Israel sanction)
- JAN FRA Charlie Hebdo attack < DEC 14 FRA Lower Hse YES to Palestinian state
2014
- World energy consumption: 500b Mbtu/yr = 2.5 oil consumption
CHN 120b Mbtu (2001 50b) = 1.4 US (88b), 3.6 IND, 4 RUS, 7 JPN, 10 GER/BRA
- Global GDP $75T, stocks $60T, bond $100T, Derivs $700T, CB b/s $22T, FX $5T/day
Global Debt $200T (US 58T, CHN 28T)
- 36m people with >$30m wealth (holdings: EU $6.4T, Asia $5.9T, NA $5.5T)
- NOV Holland say repatriated 122t gold from US < Jul 14 MH17 shot down in Ukraine?
- NOV UK & US fine 6 banks for FX fixing > GDP, USD up?
- RUS change South Stream pipeline via Bulgaria to Turkey (aft US pressure)
- CHN & RUS plan international payment system (SWIFT alternative)
< US, EU sanction on RUS re UKR civil war
- CHN Union Pay (CUP) transaction volume surpass Amex
- CHN announce gold fix in CNYuan
- CHN complete South-North water transfer project (since 2002)
- Vatican bank close 8% a/cs (mafia etc), profit drop 97%
- US fine UK, FRA, GER banks for gold silver fixing
- US FATCA goes into effect, US drops munis from allowed bank liquid asset list!
- US states legalise marijuana > increase GDP!
- UK, ITA etc include drug & prostitution in GDP!
- FEB Ukraine govt toppled (Maidan) > civil war in east UKR, Crimea joins RUS, 40t gold to US
2013
- World oil demand 90m bbl/day: DM 38m, rest 52m
- CHN propose One Belt One Road idea (land and sea new Silk Road)
- UK fine banks for LIBOR fixing > 2014 DB quit libor fix
- AUG JPN public debt JPY1 Quadrillion < 'Abenomics'!
> huge money printing > Yen carry > inflation?
- JUL US change GDP calculation method and GDP increased by $500B!
> to reduce debt/GDP ratio
- JUN CME raise gold future margin 25% (2nd time in 2 months; $7,200 to $8,800)
US claim banks manipulate commodity prices via warehouse etc (JPM close biz)
EU claim banks control OTC swaps mkt & refuse to develop swaps exchanges
Urakali pull out of international potash cartel
- MAY US close Costa Rican e-money exch Liberty Reserve for $laundering
> suppression of alternate money
- MAY Targus closed gold fund due to 'customer redemptions'
Rothschild's HKMEx closed (aft 2 yrs); settled gold in cash > gold default
- MAY Turkey Riots
- MAY EU to consider limiting re-hypothecation behind $80T shadow banking market
> drop in credit pool/expansion
- MAY CHN to limit commodity financing deals (re-hypos) to control capital inflows
> reduced EUR/CNY supply & credit > deflation?
- MAY EU investigate oil price manipulation by publisher Platts (McGraw Hill)
- MAY US to 'investigate millions of commodity swaps'
> WHY? oil/commodity price suppression?
- APR Goldman: sell gold @ $1520 > 2 days later plunged 15% over few days
COMEX gold stock ultra low; raise future margin 18.5% ($5,900 to 7,200)
> raid of GLD gold holdings, gold/silver price suppression
- APR US,UK investigate ISDAFix manipulation
- MAR ABN Amro stopped gold deliveries > gold default
- MAR Texas to repatriate gold from FED > no gold?
- MAR BRICS announced plan to setup BRICS Development Bank
- MAR Cyprus confiscate bank deposits (Gazprombank, RUS-CHN oil deal affected?)
- MAR Abenomics: BOJ to buy $70B/month JGBs, equities > carry trade, inflation
- JAN FRA attack Mali 'rebels' ('ex-Libyan mercenaries'); Mar2012 US supported coup
- JAN GER to repatriate 450t gold fr FRA & 20% of 1,500t fr US over 7 yrs > US no gold?
- JAN Egan-Jones ban fr rating US bonds, MBS for 18 mths (downgraded US 3x fr Jul 11)
2012
- Central bank balance sheet of US,UK,EU,JPN&CHN incr fr 2007 $7T to $15T
- US monetary base at 2.6T (vs 0.8T Jul 08); national debt=101% of $14T GDP;
unfunded liab=$116T > inflation
- EU public debt refinancing needs for 2012 = 23% GDP (about $3T)
- NOV IND bans bank financing of gold after doubling import tax to 4%
- NOV CHN change leadership (to Xi JinPing, Le KeQiang etc)
- OCT CHN & RUS jointly formed Universal Credit Rating Group
- OCT SGP ends GST on gold
- SEP 6 CHN ann 'ready' to trade oil in CNY, RUS joins > PetroDollar impact
- SEP 5 JPN 'buy' Senkaku islands from 'private owner'
- SEP RUS-EU Nord Stream 2nd gas pipeline live (total 55 bcm/yr)
- SEP EuroZone target date for banking regulatory union
- SEP US Egan-Jones downgrade US from AA to AA-
- SEP US FED purchase of $85B/mth bonds & MBS indefinitely ('QEternity') till 2015
FED buys 90% of new T-Bonds > rate & Dollar manipulation
> reduction of eligible collaterals in mkt > credit mkt contract > deflation?
- JUL CHN JPN start trade settlement in Yuan/Yen
- JUL Venzuela joins MERCOSUR
- JUN US goes after Barclays (LIBOR fixing), HSBC (drug$ laundering),
Standchart (Iran $laundering) in succession > UK MP: 'attack on City's agenda'
- JUN HKSE buys LME
- JUN Basel III upgrade gold to tier 1 capital by Jan 2013 (vs tier 3 @ 50% discount)
Total tier 1 cap (4%) = US$4T; tier 1 cap to be raised to 6% by 2013
- MAY Spain's Bankia asked for US$24B state help (after reporting $2B profit for Q1!)
- MAY JP Morgan reported US$2B loss from 'hedges' & Europe related
(reports: IRS related losses caused by spike in UST rates in Mar can be hundreds $B)
- APR CHN announced plan to use SIBS for international Yuan payments
- MAR Iran Oil Bourse starts trading oil in non-USD
- MAR IND propose setup of New Development Bank (BRICS Development Bank)
- FEB-MAY Iran selling $20-30B oil to China for Yuan; $12B to India for gold/INR
- MAR IND RBI cut CRR by 75 bp (50bp in Jan)
- MAR JPN allowed to buy CNY bonds; UK to prepare plans for 'Euro Collapse'
- MAR Greece default sovereign bonds @ 74% haircut using retroactive CAC
> cut 107B from 350B debt (160% gdp) > ISDA $3.2B CDS triggered
- FEB EU ECB rate cut & LTRO2 (EUR 550B)
> credit squeeze vs liquidity pump > inflation
- FEB CHN to setup USD 1B + 0.2B CNY fund for LatAm infra & trade loans
- FEB CHN reduced reserve requirement 50bp x 2 (Nov & Feb)
> QE vs CNY internationalisation & reserve ccy status
- FEB EU ann June stop import IRN oil; same day IND say buy using gold; Brent $120
- FEB JPN closed 52/54 reactors (30% elec) for inspection > gas import +70%, oil 13%
- JAN RUS WTO entry (application since 1993 held back by Georgia)
- JAN Venezuela complete repatration of 160 ton gold from UK/US (started Nov 2011)
- JAN EU (minus UK) New fiscal pact adopted: ESM, Tobin Tax
> increased Euro fiscal integration, reduced bank fin speculation, UK out
> unwind USD 8T US holdings by EU banks?
- JPN savings Y5T vs debt issue Y33T (total Y900T); pension funds net sellers
- JPN total financial asset $15T (global total 120-200T), GDP 5.9T, debt 235% gdp
- JPN budget: interest @1%=18% budget; deficit=56%; JAN record trade deficit $19B
> repatriation of FX > higher Yen > end of Yen Carry Trade?
> Yen devaluation > support Yen carry?
> price deflation in other asset classes incl. UST?
> borrow overseas > all rates go up
- proj IND silver consumption = 5k to ?
- World oil production (90 mbpd) surplus = 0
2011
- DEC BRA becomes 6th largest economy (displacing UK)
- DEC CHN PAGE starts RMB spot gold trading in Yunnan
- DEC ECB rate cut & start LTRO1 to EU banks (EUR 500B 3-yr @ 1%)
- NOV RUS-EU Nord Stream gas pipeline 1 LIVE 30 bcm/yr
- NOV Start of Syrian Civil War supported by Turkey, Qatar, Saudi, Israel
- NOV EU ECB starts buying SPA & ITA bonds
> defacto quantitative easing > inflation
- NOV MF Global collapse (Greek debt leveraged 100x?, $1.5B customer$ lost to JPM);
customers long silver but COMEX could not deliver > Silver suppression?
- OCT GER rating co Feri downgraded US bonds fr AAA to AA
- OCT HK Chinese Gold & Silver Society starts RMB gold trading
- OCT China bot a lot of gold @ $1,585-1,605 (11Q4 or 12Q1 import exceed India)
- SEP US,UK,CAN,JAP start swap lending to EU banks ($300 B) > prevent systemic collapse
- SEP US FED: 'Operation Twist' ($400B) to push 10-yr Treasury yield to <2%
- SEP CHN sign swap deals with 12 countries; allows RMB bond issue in HK
- AUG Brent hit $85; CME lowered oil futures margin by 5% (after raising 4 times in 2011)
- AUG S&P downgraded US credit rating (after new Indian CEO took over; 'left' soon after)
- AUG Venezuela to repatriate 211t gold fr US/UK, move $10B USD/Euro reserves to BRICS
- JUL-OCT Greek Crisis start, stock mkts @ yr low (S&P=1150; Brent=$100; Gold=$1800)
- JUL Egan-Jones downgrade US rating from AAA to AA+
- JUL Iran/Iraq/Syria gas pipeline plan announced (to deliver gas to Mediterranean)
> threat to LNG export by Qatar & Exxon (Iran shares same gas field w Qatar)
- MAY HKMEx opens with USD gold & silver futures deliverable in HK
- MAY CME raised silver margins 5 times in 2 weeks!
- MAY GER closed 7 nuclear stations (another 9 by 2021/22)
- APR US 2nd ARM reset peak ($500B till 2012) http://www.cotohousingblog.com/?p=9563
- APR US Fed selling UST put options > keep UST price up & rates down
- APR JPN earthquake: closed 4 Fukushima nuclear reactors
Money base = 122T (vs 88T in 2008); G-7 buy Yen after surge to 76/USD
> Yen repatriation vs devaluation > higher vs lower Yen > Yen carry trade??
- MAR IMF 'suggest' add CNY to SDR currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY) if CNY 'free floating'
- MAR NATO attacks Libya > Oct Gadaffi killed; 100t gold in London & $70B SWF?
> Libya LIA sue SocGen, GS for fraud
- JAN African Monetary Fund start; 2/3 funded by Libya (opposed by IMF/US since 2003)
- JAN US FED announced rates will be kept low till end 2014 (Fed Fund rate = 0.25%)
> high money supply & inflation
- HK Y/Y Yuan growth: trade settlement 5x; Bond issue 3x; Deposits 90%
> Yuan strength & internationalisation
- CHN increased bank reserve requirements throughout year (reversed in 2012)
- UK low fin regulation: Lehman, AIG, Madoff, MF GLobal scams all done via UK
- CHN Q4 gold purchase 191t > India 173t (world prod = 2.3kt; total stock=165kt)
- CHN silver consumption 5-6k ton? India 1-2k ton? (world prod=21+7k ton, China 3+5k?)
- World car pop 1B; US250m CHN80m+27% IND40m+10% BRA30m+15%
- Oil consumption = 87 mbpd; CHN +2m; US/EU -2m (vs 08)
2010
- Money supply growth: CHN M2 17%, IND M3 15%
- ETF size in US: 900 ETFs with assets = $890B
- DEC Start of Arab Spring; Jan Tunisia; Feb Egypt
- DEC JPM cuts silver short position
- NOV RUS-CHN to stop using USD for bilateral trade; start direct Ruble-CNY trade
- NOV Malaysia KLSE accept CNY as margin collateral
> internationalisation of CNY, drop of USD/EUR
- OCT CHN become 2nd largest economy (displacing Japan)
- JUL World stock markets at lowest for yr (S&P=1050; Brent=$75; Gold=$1200)
- JUN BP Gulf of Mexico deep sea oil spill with multiple uncontrollable leaks
> halt to deep sea drill? > oil price up
- APR-OCT 10Y UST fell fr 4% to 2.4% due to big IRS book expansion by US banks
(Morgan Stanley alone added $8T) > rates manipulation
- APR BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill start (70k-140k barrels/day vs 1k/day BP reported)
> gulf stream 'dead', low flow to east Atlantic > cold west EU & drought Eurasia
- APR Moody's downgrade Irish debt to junk ('Irish Debt Crisis')
- MAR US Start of 1st ARM reset peak ($400B of $1T over 1 yr) based on 6-mth LIBOR
- MAR US introduce FATCA > US citizens to report foreign assets by 2014
2009
- World trade settlement using USD=70% (vs 90% before 2000 & Euro)
- World debt $140T, CHN $7T, CB b/s $6T
- UN change formula for GDP calculation > world GDP increased by 3.5%!
- US 140 banks failures; FASB drops FAS157 on MTM for banks > no more mark-to-market!
- NOV Central Asia-CHN gas pipeline LIVE 30-40 bcm/yr (1/2 China's needs?)
- JUL Khazakhstan-CHN oil pipeline LIVE 200k bpd
- JUN BRA nego with CHN & IND to end using USD for trade settlement
- APR US FASB 'relaxes' fair-value or mark-to-market accounting rules to allow 'judgement'
(US banks claim that MTM doesn't work 'when markets are inactive')
> companies books may not be real anymore!
- MAR Stock markets at lowest (S&P=700; Brent=$40; Gold=$950)
- JAN CHN become 3rd largest economy (displacing Germany)
- JAN Gulf GCC countries to setup regional currency by 2013-2020 (& end USD peg?)
2008
- DEC-MAR CHN sign 3-yr ccy swaps w Argentina, Belarus, Malaysia, Indon, S Korea, HK
- DEC CHN ann no CNY devalue & others should not; start regional CNY trade settlemnt
- DEC CHN car output exceeds US (10m, 20m by 2012, 35m 2025); oil price=$90-130
- DEC US Fed Fund rate lowest at 1%; Failures: 1,100 hedge funds 25 banks
- NOV Goldman: sell gold @$845 > drop to $700 by Sep08 then straight to $1900 by Mar11
- JUL Goldman: oil to reach $250 > collapse few days later to $40 by Dec08
- JUL Oil price peak (S&P=900; Brent=$150; Gold=$990)
- Bear Stearns issues CDOs & rated as 'most admired bank'
2007
- World OTC derivs = $500T, IRS 300T, CDS 45T (vs GDP 65T, fin assets 120T)
- US Monetary base=$800B, GDP $14T
- Silver: CHN became net importer
- DEC Iran stops selling oil in USD
- OCT Stock markets peak (S&P=1550; Brent=$90; Gold=$780)
- US Start of 'Subprime Crisis'; US mortgage debt $5T; Failures: 49 hedge funds, 3 banks
> EU banks & foreign buyers of CLOs lost big
> UK: Run on Northern Rock when??
http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/great-recession-of-2008.html
2006
- RUS & Kazakhstan setup Eurasian Development Bank
- World current a/c: net negative; US&UK 90% of all with -ve (=2% world $60T GDP)
> US/UK sovereign debt crisis
- Venezuela nationalise oil fr Exxon & Conoco-Philips; start oil trade in non-USD??
- AUG Gas shock drop 20% (Amaranth held 60% Sept futures) ????
- JUL US Fed Fund rate peak at 6.75%
- APR 1st Silver ETF (i-Share SLV); US stop publish US M3 money supply figures
- FEB Syria switched all foreign reserves into Euro; Iran when?
- JAN US Alan Greenspan retire; US Housing Bubble peak (mortgage debt $5T)
> getting out before end-game: Dollar Bluff & housing bubble cannot be sustained
2005
- World oil demand 82m bbl/day: DM 41, rest 41m
- Peak Oil production (30 B barrels/yr) reached; oil price = $50
- Asian Monetary Fund (was opposed by IMF & US in 1998)
- NOV Dubai Gold & Commodity Exch start gold futures (silver Mar06, oil May07)
- SEP UK stopped publication of UK M0 money supply figures
2004
- JPN buys $500B US Treasuries < After 2002 S&P downgrade??
2003
- First Gold ETF in American Stock Exch (GLD Nov04; UGL Nov 08)
- JUL CHN announce switch part of USD reserves into Euro & liberalisation of gold market
- MAR US attacks Iraq (despite objection fr Japan, Germany & France)
2002
- World car population = 600m; oil price = $25
- NOV US Fed Fund rate lowest at 3/4%!
- OCT Shanghai Gold Exchange start spot gold trading
- JUL Stock markets lowest since Dot.Com Bubble burst (S&P=810; Brent=$25; Gold=$320)
Bankrupt: WorldCom, GlobalCrossing, Enron....
- S&P downgrade JPN
2001
- Naked short sell of stocks, UST etc. jumps after end of Gold Carry/Leasing
- Peak Gold production (2,600 ton/yr) reached; Total world holding = 165k tons
- Swiss National Bank start sell gold reserves (sold 50% by 2011 @ $350)
- NOV CHN WTO entry (after 12 yr negotiation)
- OCT US Enron collapse (bank trans disallowed by Glass-Steagall helped hide debts)
- OCT US attacks Afghanistan
- SEP Post 9/11 > Arabs withdraw USD $B investments for fear of US seizure
- FED start rate cuts; US debt 340% GDP
2000
- NOV Iraq stops selling oil in USD (wants Euro instead)
- MAY US Fed Fund rate peak at 6%
- MAR US Peak of Dot.Com Bubble (S&P=1400; Brent=$28; Gold=$300; US debt $5.5T)
- Gold Dinar: Libya hold 2nd conference with African & Muslim countries (1st in 1986)
1990-2000
- 1999 EU Start of Euro (full use in 2002) > jump in EU debt & consumption (bubble)
- 1999 NOV US Glass-Steagall Act (1933) repealed (but unwind started during Reagan yrs)
- 1999 SEP Washington Agreement on Gold sale; IMF abandon 150-300t sale proposal
- 1999 MAR US Congress reject CFTC proposals to regulate OTC derivatives market
http://economics.arawakcity.org/node/318 (folly of derivs market de-regulation)
- 1999 US Glass-Steagall Act (separating banking and investment biz) finally repealed
- 1998 Nov US Fed Fund rate lowest at 4.5%
- 1998 Basel II committee setup to improve on 'crude rules' of Basel I by 2007
Allow 'internal rating based' calc of capital requirement! > free up money printing!
- 1998 RUS bond default > flight to safety e.g. dump Jap/EU bonds for UST
> 100x increase in VaR correlation > LTCM lost 90% asset (leverage 100-200x)
> US FED organise bailout by banks ('private initiative')
- 1997 JUL Asian Fin Crisis start w THB collapse; top 4 ASEAN foreign debt/GDP=170%
- 1996 US FED says Dot.Com Bubble driven by 'irrational exuberance' > US money base?
- 1995-2007 Global FX reserves grew sharply (11%/yr)
- 1994-5 US Fed raise rates; US Fed Fund rate peak at 5.25% > 1994 Tequila Crisis
- 1993 EU formed - Maastricht Treaty; Basel I rules go into effective
- 1993 Emerging Mkts bond explosion due to world flushed w liquidity
- 1992 JUL US Fed Fund rate lowest at 3%
- 1990-2001 Banks use 'Gold Carry/Lease' to make money (& support USD, EMU/Euro?)
Belgium (Anglo-Saxon poodle) sold 70% of gold (1,000 tons)
- 1997 Swiss proposal to sell 1,300 of 2,600t 'excess' gold reserve
- 1999 MAY-2002 UK sold 400t @ $275 to buy Euro ('Brown's Bottom'; gold 20 yr low)
- 1990-92 UK enter & leave ERM after GBP 3.3 B loss
- 1991 DEC US Fed Fund rate peak at 6%
- 1990-91 Economic Recession
- 1991 South America MERCOSUR group founded (common currency 'Gaucho' planned)
- 1991 Collapse of USSR > State asset grabs by oligarchs esp 1995-96
- 1990-91 Iraq invaded Kuwait (to pay off debts from Iran war?) & invaded in turn by NATO
1946- 1990
- 1990 Oil $?; US debt $2.8T
- 1989 US attack Panama (to cancel Carter's agreed return of Panama Canal)
- 1989 Washington Consensus to 'tackle Latin Am' economic problems
> cause of later crises in Latin Am, Asian Fin Crisis?
- 1989-90 Recession
- 1989 FEB US Fed Fund rate peak at 7%
- 1988 Basel Accord (Basel I) on 'common rules' for bank capital by 1993
Capital requirement 8% (vs Japan banks which loaned lots of $ w/o capital limit)
Sovereign Loan Risk Wt: 0% for home, 20% for OECD vs 100% for non-OECD
- 1987 OCT World stock crash, Black Monday ($printing fr Plaza Accord > USD Carry?)
- 1985 SEP Plaza Accord to devalue USD vs Yen & DMark
- 1985 MAR-1990 US Savings & Loans Crisis, Junk Bond Crisis
- 1982 Malaysia ends Ringgit peg to Sing$, Brunei$ (money printing)
- 1981 US Reagan cut tax but start to double debt & print money
- 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War (oil impact?) - resulted in $80B Iraqi debt, Iran?
- 1980-82 Global recession
> father work for half-pay till 1986, Tong Fatt never paid $ owed
- 1980 Sep Gold stocks peak
- 1980 Jan Commodity, interest rate peak: Oil US$50/barrel; US debt $0.9T; Gold $850?
- 1979 Jan Iran Revolution ended (oil impact) > 2nd Oil Crisis
- 1979-89 RUS attack Afghanistan
- 1979-81 US Volcker raised Fed Funds rate fr 10% to 20% to fight inflation;
- 1979 European Community (except UK): EMS & ERM, ECU introduced?
- 1976-2012 US Increase net purchaser of foreign assets but <foreign purchase of US assets
- 1976-2012 US current a/c always negative, offset by EMkts (EU quite balanced)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w17877.pdf
- 1976 UK IMF assistance
- 1974 US citizens allowed to own gold (not allowed since 1962 Kennedy? or 1933?)
- 1974 G-10 Basel Committee Banking Supervision under BIS (after Herstatt Bank failure)
- 1973-75 Economic Recession
- 1973 Oil Crisis (oil $3 to $12), Yom Kippur War > Start of PetroDollar System
- 1973 US end military involvement in Vietnam War (South Vietnam govt collapsed in 1975)
- 1971 Malaysia formulate New Economic Policy, NEP (favouring bumiputras)
- 1971 Nixon Shock: end Bretton Woods & USD peg to gold at $35/oz (lost 1/2 gold stock)
"It's our currency and your problem," U.S. Treasury Secretary John Connally
- 1970 Oil US$1.70/barrel; US debt $0.4T
- 1969 Racial riots in Malaysia (May 13)
- 1965 Singapore separates from Malaysia
- 1965 Giscard D'Estaing USD 'exorbitant privilege' > 1968 France pulls out of Gold Pool
> 1969 IMF SDR introduced > 1974 SDR include DEM,FFR,GBP,JPY
- 1964 US forbids Silver redemption of US Dollar
- 1963 Malaysia formed between Malaya, Singapore, Sabah & Sarawak
- 1962 Great Garbage Market: US start large scale IPOs
- 1961 London Gold Pool by western central banks to keep gold price at USD35/oz
- 1961 US Kennedy's Operation Twist flatten rates to stimulate econ (sold ST & bot LT)
- 1960 OPEC formed in response to Seven Sisters pressure to drop price fr $2.90/barrel
- 1956 UK, FRA, Israel attack Egypt for nationalising Suez Canal (UK control till 1968)
- 1951 US Start of balance of payment deficit
- 1950-53 Korean War
Before 1945
- 1947 Oct GATT signed; 1951 study found only 7/43 nations have lower tariffs than US' 5%
- 1944 Jul Bretton Woods established 'USD standard' (Jun Normandy landing)
- 1937-45 World War II
- 1934 US Gold Reserve Act: USD 20 to 35/oz, Exchange Stabilisation Fund & gold control
- 1933 US Banking Act (Glass-Steagall Act) to separate commercial and investment banking
- 1933 US 2nd dip due to gold re-peg limit money supply (elsewhere world not affected)
- 1930 US Tariff Act > countries retaliate, world trade slump > US export/import fell 60%
- 1929 Start of Great Depression
- 1920 Roaring Twenties: Germany cheap sale & monetary expansion caused bubble
- 1920-23 German print to pay reparations > Mark collapse, stocks up 50 billion times!
- 1920 US Crash and then boomed (known as the Roaring 20s)
- 1915-18 US FED balance sheet grew by more than 8 times! ($637m to $5.2b)
> cause of Roaring 20s and Great Depression later
- 1914-18 World War I > 1917 Balfour Declaration
- 1913 Federal Reserve Act > creation of US Fed
- 1907 US Panic of 1907 (8 recessions between 1890-1914)??
Before 1900
- 1881-1914 Scramble for Africa
- 1870-95 US,EUR Long Recession; Germany bailout Ottoman; Silver demonetized by who?
- 1870 US Congress (Stanford) propose Chinese Exclusion Act; CAN, AUS follow
- 1862-69 US Trans-continental Railroad (Stanford use Chinese); CAN Grand Trunk Railway
- 1848-55 California Gold Rush; 1851 Australian Gold Rush start
- 1839-42 1st Opium War; 1856-60 2nd Opium War
- 1824 UK and Holland agrees to divide Indonesia/Malaysia & Jakarta for Malacca
- 1812 War of 1812 (US vs UK, Canada, natives)
- 1803-15 Napoleonic Wars > End of Holy Roman Empire > Formation of Germany & Italy
> 1812 Napoleon reparation; 1871 France reparations?
- 1792-1802 French Revolutionary Wars
- 1792 FRA Collapse of Assignats backed by confiscated church props
- 1789-99 FRA French Revolution
- 1776 US Independence
- 1720 FRA Missisipi Bubble burst; UK South Sea Bubble burst
- 1637 EUR Peak of Tulip Mania
- 1619-22 EUR 'Tipper and See Saw Time' coin debasemt by warring states, 30 Yrs War
- 1602-1800 Dutch East India Co aka VOC 1st co to issue stocks; 18% div for 200 yrs!
- 1600-1874 British East India Company granted Royal Charter (monopoly)
- 1589 Counter Armada
- 1588 Spanish Armada to end British 'privateering' & involvement in Spanish Netherlands
Pope Sixtus V support it as crusade
- 1494 Treaty of Tordesillas, 1529 Treaty of Zaragosa divide world betw Spain & Portugal
(to resolve Aeterni Regis after Spain's Columbus 'discovery' of America)
- 1481 Papal bull AEterni Regis grant all lands south of Canary Islands to Portugal
(after Portugal's 'discovery' of Africa and East Indies)
- Dutch financiers & miners e.g. Fuggers financed Portugal's foreign expeditions???
- 1300s Spread of Islam to Indonesia & Malaysia
Background
In the late 1990s, I attended a JP Morgan course conducted by an American professor who during his summer breaks was contracted by JPM to ground the globe to conduct a course on the topic known as 'Macro Economic Linkages'. According to him, if one understands how an event in one market or a part of the world will affect other markets in other parts of the world, one can move ahead of others and profit from it.
At about the same time, Lee Kuan Yew spoke about the importance of leaders with 'helicopter view' in his memoir.
The 'science' of weather forecast only became possible after the advent of satellites which allowed weathermen to see the wind and cloud patterns at the global level. Their 'predictions' come from satellite pictures of clouds.
Similarly, to be able to predict what may be happening in the future economy one needs a 'helicopter view'. That means knowing about the history of world economics and major economic developments of the world and what they may mean (highlighted in red above).
