Tuesday, February 28, 2012

By Gold

Article by Jeff Clark of Casey Research dated 26 Feb 2012

Have you ever had any doubts about gold? Does it sometimes feel like it should be performing better? Are you concerned about its volatility? Do you worry about how it might perform in the future? Have you ever wondered about its true purchasing power? Maybe you’re nervous about a big drop in price again? I decided to go directly to the source to address these concerns: Gold himself. He put his arm around me and asked me to tell you a few things...— Jeff Clark, Casey Research

I hear that you’ve had some worries about me. I understand. Your world is a very uncertain place right now. And when it comes to money, it looks as though your leaders don’t understand some basic monetary principles, making things even more unsettling.

But I want you to know that the problems you’re experiencing are actually nothing new. I’ve seen these monetary, fiscal, and economic difficulties many times before. And I can tell you this: you’re safe with me. That’s a bold proclamation, but I’ve provided monetary protection numerous times throughout history — too many to count, in fact. I’ve served all kinds of people over the centuries, from kings and counts to serfs and servants.

To put your mind at ease, let’s review my core characteristics, along with some history, to show how I can protect you against the monetary danger that’s likely to worsen in your near future. We’ll also take a look at your peculiar set of circumstances to see how I can be of service. By the time we’re done, I think you’ll feel much better about my ability to help your portfolio withstand whatever is thrown its way.

Enduring Characteristics

Let’s start with the basics. I have some characteristics that no other matter on Earth has...

I cannot be:

  • Printed (ask a miner how long it takes to find me and dig me up)
  • Counterfeited (you can try, but a scale will catch it every time)
  • Inflated (I can’t be reproduced)
I cannot be destroyed by;

  • Fire (it takes heat at least 1945.4 degrees F. to melt me)
  • Water (I don’t rust or tarnish)
  • Time (my coins remain recognizable after a thousand years)
I don’t need:

  • Feeding (like cattle)
  • Fertilizer (like corn)
  • Maintenance (like printing presses)
I have no:

  • Time limit (most metal is still in existence)
  • Counterparty risk (remember MF Global?)
  • Shelf life (I never expire)
As a metal, I am uniquely:

  • Malleable (I spread without cracking)
  • Ductile (I stretch without breaking)
  • Beautiful (I am the ultimate accessory)
As money, I am:

  • Liquid (easily convertible to cash)
  • Portable (you can conveniently hold $30,000 in one hand)
  • Divisible (you can use me in tiny fractions)
  • Consistent (I am the same in any quantity, at any place)
  • Private (no one has to know you own me)
I am internationally accepted, last for thousands of years, and probably most important, you can’t make any more of me.

And by the way, don’t fret about those who say I’m not as good an asset as an income-producing vehicle. They misunderstand my role. I’m not trying to be a stock, for example. My function is as money and a store of value, so the proper comparison is to your dollars, or what you call Treasury Bills (of similar nominal value). And here is where I excel and serve my purpose: since 1913, the US dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power. I have lost none.

Remember, I am the only financial asset that is not simultaneously someone else’s liability. I don’t require the backing of any bank or government.

The History Lesson

Because I am eons old, I’ve observed something throughout history that you may not be aware of: government fiat currencies are a relatively new invention, and none has endured.

Eventually, they have all failed. Me? I’ve never been defaulted on or worth zero. Remember this the next time you have any doubts about my long-term worth.

You can rest assured that over time, I will hold my value. And when you near the end of your life, you can pass me on to your loved ones, knowing full well they will have something that cannot be devalued, debased, or destroyed.

What Color Is Your Money?

Like you, I’m concerned about the current state of fiscal and monetary affairs. It seems your government leaders have boxed themselves into a corner. They’ve incurred too much debt and are spending too much money. It’s important that you understand some lessons from history about this kind of behavior so that you’re certain of what I can do for you.

The common denominators that lead to the downfall of every fiat currency are the two big Ds: debts and deficits. With that in mind, consider the following:

  • Detailed studies of government debt levels over the past 100 years show that debts have never been repaid (in original currency units) when they have exceeded 80% of GDP. US government debt will exceed 100% of GDP this year.
  • Investment legend Marc Faber reports that once a country’s payments on debt exceed 30% of tax revenue, the currency is “done for.” By some estimates, the US will hit that ratio this year.
  • Peter Bernholz, a leading expert on hyperinflation, states unequivocally that “hyperinflation is caused by government budget deficits.” Next year’s US budget deficit is projected to be $1.3 trillion.
The solution many of your leaders are pursuing is to create more currency units. The US monetary base has exploded 205.8% during the last three years, while my price is only up 65.8%. This fact, alone, implies that my price in dollars is likely to climb much higher.

This is also the reason why I’m not in a bubble, as some have tried to claim. It is your central banks and bond markets that are in a bubble. The fact that my price is rising is a warning that what your leaders are doing is unsustainable and potentially dangerous to your currency.

Think about this: the US has debt backed by debt, based on debt, dependent on debt, and leveraged with debt. You can, for example, buy a bond (i.e., lend money) on margin (i.e., with borrowed money). This is not a sound way to run financial markets.

Meanwhile, the warning bells continue to sound regarding Europe’s debt crisis. In just the past 30 days:

  • Moody’s cautioned that it may cut the triple-A status of France, Austria, and the UK; and it downgraded six other European nations including Italy, Spain, and Portugal.
  • Standard & Poor’s cut the triple-A status of France and Austria, while Italy, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Malta, Slovakia, and Slovenia were downgraded.
  • Fitch downgraded Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia, and Spain, and stated there was a 50% chance of further cuts in the next two years.
  • Standard & Poor’s downgraded 34 of Italy’s 37 banks.
  • Moody’s warned just last week that it may cut the credit ratings of 17 global financial institutions and 114 European ones.
The European crisis is far from over; and the path of least resistance for politicians is to create more currency units. This action can and will have clear and direct consequences: currencies will devalue, and inflation — perhaps hyperinflation — will result.

Once again, I encourage you to use me to protect some of your wealth.

How Much Is Enough?

Given the state of your monetary system, you should accumulate me (and silver) on a regular basis. Just buy some every month and put it in a safe place. After what I’ve witnessed throughout history, and based on the current path your government leaders insist on pursuing, I suggest using me as your savings vehicle instead of putting dollars in a bank.

If you don’t own enough of me when these fiscal troubles really accelerate, I fear you will regret it. I’ve warned many in the past about the dilution of nations’ currencies, and those who didn’t heed my warnings experienced severe financial pain. Excuses won’t pay the mortgage nor feed the family when the effects of currency debasement hit your home and pocketbook.

Make sure you own enough of me to make a difference to your portfolio. This means having more than a couple coins or a few shares of GLD, the latter of which is only a proxy for my price.

How do you know if you own enough? Ask yourself:

  • If inflation returns, or even hyperinflation hits...
  • If the economy is flat...
  • If uncertainty and fear continue around the globe...
  • If stock markets languish...
  • If the amount of spending from the world’s governments proves futile...
  • If government interference in the economy continues to increase...
  • If the value of the US dollar takes a major fall...
  • If the world enters a recession or depression...
  • If you wonder if you have enough “safe” money...
..would you feel that you own enough of me?

Buy a sufficient amount so that as your currency continues to lose value, your portfolio won’t. If you do your part, I promise I’ll do mine.

Your monetary friend,

Gold

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Price Trend & Technical Indicators

Notes on technical indicators:

- Since many people use them, they can be self-fulfilling since everyone will react the same way
- Use indicators over 3, 6 and 12 months time horizon
- Do not rely on only one indicator but watch out for multiple indicators to confirm
- Always look out for divergences (see below)
- Final decision must be based on fundamentals of economy, the company and its industry
- Review Market Indicators to set big picture before using technical indicators
   http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/key-market-indicators.html


FUNDAMENTALS
 BUY or UP IndicatorSELL or DOWN Indicator



LEI (US only)Hit bottom (< -5) and turns upwardDown trend & go below 0



VIX (US mainly)VIX > 30-40 and hits bottom of Wide VIX Bollinger BandVIX < 20 and spikes up from Narrow VIX Bollinger Band



Margin of SafetyPE <  8;  Dividend > 8%PE > 20;  Dividend < 3%
 P/FCF < 6, P/OCF < 3
P/Rev < 0.7
P/Book < 0.7, NAV discount 30%
P/FCF > 15, P/OCF > 6
P/Rev > 2.5
P/Book > 2, NAV premium 100%
  
Insider Actions
 
Industry

 
Insiders buying continuously
 
Company not in Sunset industry
Not narrow/niche/hype market
 
Insiders selling continuously
 
Company in Sunset industry
In narrow/niche/hype market
 

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
 BUY or UP IndicatorSELL or DOWN Indicator

Divergences





Cross-Road

Capitulation

 

As price trend down:
- volume go down
- MACD with higher lows
- W%R >80 then turn up
- RSI >70 & higher lows

Doji (indecision) appear

Gap between falling daily candles
3-4 days in a row
 

As price trend up:
- volume go down
- MACD with lower highs
- W%R <20 then turn down
- RSI <30 & lower peaks

Doji (indecision) appear



 
Bollinger Band & Trade Volume


MACD
(3-6 months)
 
After price loss, band narrows & flattens, and volume drops (not many sellers left)

Low MACD turn up AND
higher bottoms as price go down,
 

After price gain, band narrows & flattens,  and volume drops (not many buyers)

High MACD turn down AND
lower highs as price up

 
Moving Average
 
20D MA bottom & go abv 50DMA
50D MA bottom & go abv 90/200D
20D MA top & go below 50D MA
50D MA top & go below 90/200D
   
   
Williams %R
(3-6 months)



Price trend down but %R bottoms trend up fr below -80 (oversold) AND
%R Spike UP to above 50 (suddenly lots of buying at low price)
Price trend up but %R tops trend down fr -20 (overbot) AND/OR
%R Dive DOWN sharply from -20 (suddenly lots of selling at high price)
 
   
  
Slow Stochastic
(3-6 months)


Rate of Change
Below 20 (oversold)
& %K go above %D


Below -50 & turn up
Above 80 (overbot)
& %K go above %D


Above +100 & then go below 50
(60 day)
 
   


 
Relative Strength Indicator (RSI)


Money Flow Index
(3-6 months)

 
Below 30 (oversold)



Hit below 20 (oversold) and
bottoms trend up as price go lower or flat
 
Above 70 (overbot)



Hit above 80 (overbot) and 
tops trend down as price go higher or flat
 



Advance-Decline Line
(for mkt indices)
both index and A/D line uptrend

 
index up but A/D line turn down

 



DoublesDouble BottomsDouble Tops
TriplesTriple bottomsTriple tops
Rounded bottomsWide bottom U-shape, bowl



Head & Shoulders
 
Inverted H&S and goes above necklineH&S and goes below neckline
 



WedgeFalling wedge Upward wedge
 break upwards from descending  trianglebreak downwards from ascending triangle






P/FCF (Price Over Free Cash Flow)
What is it: How much net cash is generated per share by company vs price of share
FCF is more indicative of actual income of company (vs accounting profit) because FCF includes depreciation and amortisation which are not real but 'accounting expenses'.

See also other close equivalents: Operating Cash Flow, Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortisation (OIBDA)

VIX (volatility index)  http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX#symbol=%5Evix;range=1y;compare=;indicator=bollinger+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
What is it: Calculated figure derived from option prices of S&P stocks that indicate potential S&P price change within next 12 months. E.g. VIX 15 means S&P price may move by 15% within 12 months. When index is low it indicates people expect prices to be relatively stable for next 12 months.

How to use:
- When S&P is cheap, VIX high (above 40) and CLEARLY retrace down to 20-30, time to buy
- When S&P is expensive, VIX low (low teens) and start STEEP climb above 20, time to sell


MACD (Moving Average)   http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FSSTI:IND/chart
What is it: Shows moving average price for previous 20, 50, 90 or 200 days.

How to use (example):
- When 20ma cross above 50ma, and price trend up: bottom reached, price likely to go higher (buy)
- When 20ma cross below 50ma, and price trend down: top reached, price likely to go lower (sell)


INSIDER ACTIONS  
What is it: Shows what insiders who know the company best are doing. Insiders may be senior staff, director, majority owners or substantial shareholders.

How to use (example):
- When insiders keep buying, buy
- When insiders keep selling, sell

Singapore: http://www.shareking.com/modules/Insider_Trade/
US: http://www.insidermonkey.com/insider-trading/


May 2013  http://www.munknee.com/2013/06/timing-the-market-using-trend-indicators/
By: Lorimer Wilson (www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com) and editor of www.munKNEE.com.

(Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article reposting with a link* to the article source to avoid copyright infringement.)


There are over 80 market indicators divided into 6 categories (trend, momentum, volatility, market strength, support/resistance and cycle). That being said some are very technical, some are infrequently used and some are more effective than others. The most popular indicators, and also available for use free at online charting service such as stockcharts.com and/or bigcharts.com, are those regarding:
  • market trends
  • market momentum (see here for a description of use of these indicators) and
  • market strength and volatility (see here)
(Also, to even further understand the Patterns, Trends, Indicators and Formations of Technical Analysis read this article.)

It is always hard to know what to buy or sell let alone just when to do so. Thank goodness there are indicators available that provide such information. Below are descriptions of the 7 most popular trend indicators: Crossovers; Moving Average Convergence Divergence; Percentage Price Oscillator; Keltner Channels; Parabolic SAR; Traders’ Index; and Advance/Decline Line.

Trend Indicators
The price movement of a security over time is most easily analyzed by observing how its moving averages are trending. Either a simple moving average (where the movement during a specific time period is divided by the days of that time period) or an exponential moving average (where a mathematical formula gives greater emphasis to the more recent price movement) can be used and any period of time (up to 360 days on the various fine charting sites) can be studied.

The most common short-term time period is 20- or 21-days using an exponential moving average (ema), while the most popular medium-term periods are the 39- or 40- and 50-day using a simple moving average (ma).

To observe the long-term trend of the price movement of a security a 200-day ma is usually used and occasionally a 100-day ma. That being said, a large number of variations have been developed to satisfy particular needs and situations.

7 of the most popular trend indicators are as follows:

1. Crossovers
- used to forecast the future movements in the price of a stock such as when a stock or index moves above (bullish) or below (bearish) its 20-day moving average.

When a security’s long-term moving average (e.g. 50-day ma or ema) moves above its short-term moving average (e.g. 20-day ma or ema) it is referred to as a Death Cross and indicates a bear market on the immediate horizon, especially when it is reinforced by high trading volumes. Conversely, when a security’s short-term moving average moves above its long-term moving average, coupled with high trading volumes, it is referred to as a Golden Cross and indicates a bull market on the immediate horizon.

2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
- a trend-following momentum indicator of the exponential moving average (ema) of a stock or index which is used to identify short-term momentum. Specifically, the 26-day ema of a stock or index is subtracted from the 12-day ema to show an intermediate trend line. A 9-day ema, the ‘signal line,’ is then plotted over that intermediate term line to identify when to buy or sell the stock or index. When the resultant MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal, which indicates that it may be time to sell.

Conversely, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggests that the price of the asset is likely to experience upward momentum. Many traders wait for a confirmed cross above the signal line before buying or selling to avoid doing so too early and thereby avoid being ‘faked out’.

Traders also watch for a move above or below the zero line because this signals the position of the short-term average relative to the intermediate-term average. When the MACD is above zero, the short-term average is above the intermediate-term average, which signals upward momentum. The opposite is true when the MACD is below zero. The zero line often acts as an area of support and resistance for the indicator.

3. Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO)
- similar to the MACD but while the MACD shows the simple difference between the 2 exponential moving averages the PPO expresses this difference as a percentage which allows a trader to compare stocks with different prices more easily.

For example, regardless of the stock’s price, a PPO result of 10 means the short-term average is 10% above the intermediate-term average. That makes it much easier to choose one stock over another should the need arise.

4. Keltner Channels
- moving average bands/channels where the upper line represents the average high of a security over a 10-day period; the lower band the average low of a security over a 10-day period and the centre line the closing price of a security over the same 10-day period.

The trader is to sell the security when the closing price exceeds the upper band and to buy the security when the closing price falls outside the lower band. Like the other indicators mentioned it is best to add two or three other indicators to one’s charts to confirm any buy/sell signal.

5. Parabolic SAR
- used to determine the direction of a security’s momentum and the point in time when this momentum has a higher-than-normal probability of switching directions.

The parabolic SAR is shown as a series of dots placed either below a security’s price on a chart (a bullish signal causing traders to expect the momentum to remain in the upward direction) or above (a signal that the bears are in control and that the momentum is likely to remain downward).

As the price of the security rises, the dots will rise as well, first slowly (i.e. spaced well apart) and then picking up speed (i.e. getting closer and closer together) and accelerating with the trend. This accelerating system allows the investor to watch the trend develop and establish itself. The SAR starts to move a little faster as the trend develops and the dots soon catch up to the price line and that is when it is time to buy the security. A sell signal is triggered when the price line moves below the lower dot enabling an investor to position a stop-loss order.

The ability for the parabolic SAR to respond to changing conditions removes all human emotion and allows the trader to be disciplined. On the other hand, while the SAR works extremely well when a security is trending, it can lead to many false signals when the price moves sideways or is trading in a choppy market. That being the case, it is paramount that other indicators such as the stochastic oscillator, moving averages, etc. be used to ensure that all information is being considered.

6. Traders’ Index (TRIN)
- a short-term breadth indicator which measures the ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks and compares it to the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume.

When advancing volume exhibits discordance with the raw number of advancing stocks, the all-important sell signal is given. Conversely, when volume on the downside increases out of proportion with the number of declining stocks, an upside reversal is said to be imminent.

It is important to note that TRIN is handled differently in each of the different market conditions. In a bull market, the overbought line is placed at 0.65 or 0.70 but in a bear market at 0.70 or 0.75. The oversold line is placed at 0.90 or 0.95 in a bull market and at 1.00 or 1.10 in bear markets. Assuming the market has been correctly identified as a bull or a bear and the overbought and oversold lines have been correctly placed you should buy when the current TRIN crosses above its oversold line and sell when TRIN sinks below its upper overbought line.

When interpreted properly, TRIN can be one of the most powerful and accurate means of assessing the psychology of the market.

7. Advance/Decline Line (A/D)
- used to confirm the strength of a current trend and its likelihood of reversing. If the markets are up but the A/D line is sloping downwards, it’s usually a sign that the markets are losing their breadth and may be setting up to head in the other direction. If the slope of the A/D line is up and the market is trending upward then the market is said to be healthy.

Remember, the trend is your friend and now you have an arsenal of such indicators to make an extensive and in-depth assessment of whether you should be buying or selling. If ever there was a “cut and save” investment advisory this article is it.

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Market Cycles

Market Cycles
 - Stock market cycle bottom every 3-4 years (since 1980)
 - Stock indices more than double every 10 year (that means savings must double every 10 years just to retain value)
 -

Key Market Indicators

Caution: Many indicators given here are US specific and may not represent other parts of the whole world esp. in future when the US loses its world influence & dominance. Also, those indicators may be manipulated by their governments!


Economic Indicators
US & global: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
Germany:  http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/ifoHome/a-winfo/d1index
What is it: Shows business confidence and whether economy is growing or not. Usually lags stock market by 1 month. Use this as confirmation of up or down trend.

How to use: If indicators improve or turn positive when share indices have been up for a few weeks, then good chance economy has turned better and share prices will continue to go up


National Debt, Budget Deficit http://ca.gdc.economist.com.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html
What is it: How much debt a country has and can they service the debt. Excessively high debts (above 100% GDP) and budget deficit (> 5%) indicate potential financing problem for country.

Notes:
 - includes sovereign debts (national, regional/state and city governments), private debts and unfunded future commitments (for retirement benefits like social security, medicare etc).
 - problem greater if significant portion of debt is denominated in foreign currency that country cannot 'print' to devalue their debt and ease repayment cost.

How to use: see above


Bud DefGDPTot DebtGovPrivate
US14.5T380%105%280%
UK2.3T475%85%290%

Eurozone
Germany


3.3T

450%?
280%


80%
France2.7T340%90%
Italy2.0T310%120%
Spain1.4T370%85%220%
Portugal0.2T95%

Japan


5.2T

500%

200%

300%
China5.9T20%
India1.6T55%
Brazil2.0T55%
Russia


Money Base 
US: http://ycharts.com/indicators/monetary_base
What is it: Total money 'issued' by central bank = paper currency in circulation plus bank deposits with central bank. Bank deposits at central bank (if not reduced) is money potentially available for lending out to the market thereby increasing total money supply significantly (due to multiplier effect).

Note: Other countries may not use the term 'money base' but otehr terms like M0 (e.g. UK). Therefore, M0, M1, M2 etc have different definition for different countries.

How to use: money base expansion indicates potential future money supply expansion. Use together with size of money supply.

                   US Fed B/S      ECB B/S    CHINA   JAPAN
 2012              2.9T                3.0T                         115T
 2008              0.9T                1.3T

Notes.
- 2008 US domestic money base is smaller by about $580B because 70% of currency money ($580B of $850B) is outside US. Therefore, monetary expansion thru 2012 is 10 times (since domestic base was only $270B in 2008)
- gold in US b/s valued at $43/oz??


Money Supply 
US  http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/monetary-base-money-supply
What is it: How much money in circulation. The more money, the 'cheaper' it becomes (i.e. money is being debased) and the higher prices of things and real stuffs will get (i.e. price inflation).

Governments use cheap money (expand money supply, lower interest rate, create inflation) to try to stimulate consumption and 'growth'. Since it also reduces the country's debt burden, inflation is the preferred option for all governments!

How to use: when money supply expand, everything will go up i.e. inflation!


Interest Rates  
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^FVX
What is it: How expensive is it to borrow money. Alternate indicator of how much money is in circulation. The more money around, the 'cheaper' borrowing money becomes.

How to use: when rates are low, money is cheap to borrow and a lot of money is available. Everything will go up in money terms!

US Treasury Holdings 2009:
 - US government retirement funds    3.3T
 - European banks                                ? T


Inflation Rates   
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
What is it: How quickly prices of goods are going up. Alternate indicator of how much money is in circulation. The more money around, the 'higher' inflation becomes. Prices of real stuffs like basic commodities, precious metals, land etc. will go up.

Notes:
 - Governments tend to under report inflation to make things 'look good' and hide their money printing from people. E,g, 'official' US consumer price index (CPI) does not include food, energy and house prices (but rentals), and use 'cheaper product substitution' when calculating inflation rate
 - High inflation lowers people's disposable income and lowers discretionary goods price due to lack of demand. Luxury and discretionary product/services businesses will be adversely affected. That is at least initially (1 or 2 years) but medium/long term they will also rise as money floods the market.

Beware: During financial crises (bursting of economic bubbles), deflation may happen because previous 'growth' was not real but driven by high supply of credit (money). In crises, those credit/money will be destroyed (lost) and people living off such credit lose wealth and forced to sell assets and cuts consumption resulting in lower prices.

How to use: when sudden deflation during financial crises, buy real assets or businesss owning real assets!


Share Prices   
US: http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#symbol=^gspc
What is it: State of share markets indicate health of economy. US S&P is a good proxy of overall world share prices & economy

How to use:


Oil Price   
Brent: http://www.oilnergy.com/1obrent.htm#since88
What is it: Price of Brent Crude indicates health of economy.

Notes:
 - Brent crude price is a good proxy as 2/3 of all oil sales are based on it (but may be controlled by Brits). Gazprom gas prices are linked to Brent crude.
 - Price always peak in May/June (25% higher than start of year) due to higher car consumption in 'summer holidays'.

How to use:


Gold/Silver Price   
London: http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/history.html
What is it: Price of gold indicates level of monetary debasement by governments.

Notes:
 - World gold production 2.3k tons/yr = 2% of total gold (165k tons)
 - above link is to prices per London fixing controlled by Brits. Refer also to HK fixing prices
 - gold/silver prices are manipulated by governments short-sell via JP Morgan, HSBC etc (if prices do not fall those banks are caught causing e.g. HSBC to cut businesses in 2012)

Government Gold Stock (tons) as of 2009:
  - US                8,000  (but reportedly short 4,000 to support USD)
  - EU              13,500
  - East Europe     800
  - IMF              3,200
  - Latin Am         500? (Venezuela alone 300)
  - Arabs           1,300
  - Asia             3,500 (China 1,000;  India  800;  Japan  750; Taiwan 400)


Demographics 
What is it: Distribution of population by age
  - age 30-40 spending on home first
  - age 40-45 spending peaks on kids schooling etc.
  - age 46-50 spending drops drastically as kids graduate & leave home
How to use:

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Warren Buffett's Holdings

http://warren-buffett-portfolio.com/
http://stockpickr.com/pro/portfolio/warren-buffett/
http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett (with transaction history & prices)


Coca-Cola (Food)
Kraft (Food)
Procter and Gamble (Food)

Johnson & Johnson (Consumer)
Wal-Mart (Consumer)

Glaxo Smith Kline (Pharmaceutical)
Sanofi-Aventis (Pharmaceutical)

Conoco Philips (Oil & Gas)

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Fools' Paradise

(BERNAMA) - The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) needs to set up a Housing Bank, to provide financing for contributors whose housing withdrawals fall short of the purchase price of their house, said the Federation of Malaysian Consumer Associations (Fomca).

Its president, Datuk N.Marimuthu, said that such a facility would be useful especially to the lower-income group, and overcome the need for the contributors to borrow from banks which imposed high interest rates.

In welcoming the EPF's six per cent dividend for 2011, Marimuthu said it was a sign that the economy had been picking up.

"We are glad the dividend is higher. It is important to maintain a strong investment return even as the membership keeps growing," he added.


...
written by ck, February 20, 2012 13:15:57

Fools' Paradise

"In welcoming the EPF's six per cent dividend for 2011, Marimuthu said it was a sign that the economy had been picking up"

Indians are the biggest buyers of gold in the world for decades (only to be surpassed by the Chinese the last few months). The reason why Indians and Chinese do that is because they know from experience that governments can 'print' paper money without end resulting in the devaluation of those 'monies' over time. In other words, governments steal their people's wealth by printing money and giving those 'new' money to themselves and their cronies to use.

Since 2007, the price of real stuffs like gold, silver, platinum and oil had more than doubled. The prices of those things had gone up so much because thieving governments had printed a lot of money since then (supposedly to save the global economy) and smart people holding those stuffs are refusing to part with them unless they are paid more and more of those toilet papers.

If workers' money in EPF were used to buy gold or any of the real stuffs above their value would have more than doubled over the last 4 years (or about 20% return or dividend per year)! Instead, that idiot above thinks that people giving him 6% dividend is so great and a 'sign that economy is picking up'.

That fool does not know that receiving a high dividend is a sign that the thieving government had printed so much money that they can afford to give workers which he represents more of the more worthless money known as Ringgit!

Monday, February 20, 2012

Guide to Healthy Living

Health Tips from Mayo Clinic
(Mayo Clinic is one of the top medical centers in the world. Their site also gives good diagnostic guides for all medical problems) http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/dietary-guidelines/MY01594


Drink Lots of Water (but Beware of What's in It)
More than 70% of our body is water. The brain has higher water content than other cells.
Water is a powerful solvent that helps remove wastes and toxins from our body.

1. Before sleep, drink a glass of water. After 8 hours of sleep the body will be very dehydrated. So immediately after waking up, drink at least 2 glasses of water and wash face and back of neck with water to moisturise the skin

2. Make sure you drink lots of water throughout the day. DO NOT wait until you are thirsty. Water here refers to plain water or liquids from fresh fruits like fresh coconut water or fresh soya bean drink, and not 'contaminated water' in liquids like coffee, tea, canned juices and soft drinks which are highly acidic and harmful to our bodies (see notes below on man-made foods and drinks).

3. Reduce the invisible poisons in drinking water
Pipes corrode over time. Many house pipes are made of copper or plastic because they are cheaper than steel pipes which are less liable to corrosion and decomposition. Copper pipes corrode quickly into poisonous copper oxide (which gives a bluish tinge to water coming out of unused taps).

Plastic in plastic pipes and plastic water containers decompose into toxic powders that cannot be seen by the naked eye. [Note: When I advise people shopping for water bottles not to buy plastic ones, the response I always get is 'but the label says it is BPA free'. But they never wonder why the label only say ONE toxic chemical is not present. What about the other toxic chemicals?]

Pipe water supplied by water utilities and swimming pools are treated with Chlorine to kill germs and bacteria but that same chlorine is highly toxic to our bodies (our cells are not very different from bacteria). Chlorine is one of the most poisonous element known. Public swimming pools have much higher concentration of chlorine than pipe water and their water is therefore very poisonous (therefore do not use such pools too often). Many poisonous insecticides and weed killers etc. are compounds with Chlorine as a component.

To reduce the level of toxins in water we drink, do the following:
- do not use water from long unused pipes for drinking. Drain a few liters from the taps before collecting for drinking purposes (keep the initial few liters for washing purposes). This is especially the case early in the morning when water had stayed in the pipes overnight
- use activated carbon filters: activated carbon absorbs dangerous chemicals including Chlorine
- keep water overnight in a steel container or steel cooking pot (do not use plastic water bottles) to give time for the dissolved chlorine to escape into the air
- boil water before drinking: heating cause the water to lose some of the Chlorine in addition to killing bacteria
- use glass, ceramic or steel water containers and bottles (do not use plastic ones)

4. Drinking slightly alkaline water MAY help because ingestion of meats and man-made foods which are highly acidic upsets the pH balance in our body. Alkaline water also dissolves oils and fats (one cause of stroke and heart attacks) better. Investigations found that water in some parts of the world where the people tend to live longer are slightly alkaline (because their water sources are in areas with alkaline rocks etc).

Meats and water with dissolved chemicals (due to pollution, corrosion and chemical treatment etc) and all the man-made foods tend to be acidic and upset the pH balance in our body if not neutralised. Cancer thrive in acidic environment.

There are water treatment units sold publicly that make water slightly alkaline. In 2011, I bought steel capsules containing organic stones (containing alkaline sources like calcium etc.) that can be used for 3 years selling at S$50 each.

But BEWARE:
- although drinking slightly alkaline water does no harm, there is no scientific proof that it makes a lot of difference either (because it gets neutralised immediately by acid in our stomach). Our body is a very complicated system and simply drinking slightly alkaline water is not the 'solve all'. It is better to minimise pH imbalance in our body by simply avoiding too much acidic meat and manufactured food/drink intake, and drinking lots of water throughout the day!
- One multi-level marketing (MLM) company I know of sell 'Kangen machines' (from Japan) that produce 'ionized alkaline' water for S$5,000 but there is no proof that they work (the MLM was also giving most of that money out as 'bonuses' to the various levels of introducers!)

http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/why-admire-her-old-water-and-not.html


GENERAL EATING GUIDE
Go Vegetarian Once a While and not eat meat for 1-2 days or regularly not have meat during alternate meals. You will feel very clean inside and fresh after that! Your faeces will not stink like when you eat meat. Note: A low-meat diet will make you sensitive to people who eat too much meat as they would smell of the animals they eat e.g. chinese people who like pork smell like pig when they get near to me which turns me off!

Eat easy to digest foods like fruits, soups, curds and porridge. Meats that are difficult to digest and the toxins they contain stress the body and shorten life span.

Avoid pre-cooked hawker food and utensils. If have to, take food served in hot & plain soups.

Never over eat, stop once you feel full. Over eating increases metabolic rate of cells which shortens their life span.

Do not lie down on couch or sleep after meals. Try to keep standing or go for a walk for 30 minutes. Otherwise make sure to sit upright. This is to avoid 'acid reflux' which is the back-flow of acid from stomach into oesophagus which will 'burn' linings in oesophagus resulting in 'chest burn' sensation.

Do NOT eat or drink acidic liquids 3 hours before sleep. Do not have oily and fatty food including milk and acidic drinks (like coffee, citrus fruit juice and soft drinks) at least 3 hours before going to bed. Consuming fatty and acidic food before sleeping triggers acid production in stomach that may 'burn' stomach ('gastric burn') and oesophagus ('acid reflux'). If hungry, drink hot milo, horlick, oat, sesame etc. (these drinks are starch based which require less stomach acid to digest). Use low fat milk if needed.

List of Good Foods:
http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/10-foods-for-fabulous-abs.html


Healthy Breakfast Regime
- drink at least 2 glasses of water after waking and before eating
- eat 1 half-boiled egg or sandwich with fried egg
- avoid coffee and tea (malted drinks etc are better)
- brush teeth after eating (not before)
http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2001/02/what-smart-chinese-feed-their-children.html
http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/dental-care.html

[Note: caffeine in coffee and black tea (as opposed to chinese and green tea) are acidic and thickens blood. Thick blood results in bad circulation and reduces its ability to dissolve and remove oil/fat and harmful substances from body and blood vessels thus contributing to strokes and heart attacks. Green and Chinese tea on the other hand thins blood and helps in dissolving oil/fat and harmful substances]

Eat Lots of Fruits, Nuts, Beans and Vegetables
They are all great sources of vitamins, anti-oxidants and essential minerals (only plants can produce vitamins, animals cannot). Like egg is to animals, fruits, nuts and beans are the 'future children' of plants. Because of that, nature 'invests heavily' in them to ensure survival of the species by making sure they contain all the best and important ingredients for growth and health of their young!

Eat freshly cut fruits. Do not eat cut fruits left on stalls without ice or not in fridges. They may be infested with bacteria after long expsoure.


Take Traditional Chinese Herbal Soups
Chinese long ago had experimented with various herbs and found the ones that are most helpful in maintaining good health. Traditional Chinese soups containing ginseng, 'tang gui', red plums, etc are good anti-oxidants and body cleansers. http://www.chinese-traditional-food.com/chinese-soups.html

Take them every 1 to 2 weeks and change the variety of soup and herbs each time.


Fight Bad Bacteria with Good Bacteria (the Indian Way)
Indians long ago found out that yogurt is good for health because it contains good bacteria. Our body, especially our gut, is full of bacteria. We can never get rid of them. In fact, we need good bacteria to help digestion and control the spread of bad bacteria. The cells in our body also contain ancient 'captured bacteria' that perform functions critical to our cell survival (you can say our body is a collection of bacteria!). Excesive bad bateria can cause big tummy, illness and cancer. Our body need good bacteria to function properly.

Take a few spoonful of yogurt 2 or 3 times a week (I recommend traditional indian yogurt sold by indian traditional shops - 300 cc for $1.20 - cheap and good).

Or drink 'lassi' which is prepared by mixing a few spoonfuls of yogurt and a pinch of salt in a glass of water. It is a tasty health drink!

[Note: bad bacteria (from gut) that get into our blood causes plaque to form in blood vessels (like plaque in teeth/gum) and is one cause of heart attacks and strokes]


Eat Freshly Prepared Food (Not more than 4 hours)Recently, the Singapore government came up with a law requiring all food caterers to label their food preparation time and warned people not to consume food more than 4 hours old because bacterial growth is significantly higher when kept beyond 4 hours.

When consuming home cooked meals:
- consume immediately after preparation
- place unconsumed food in fridge immediately.
- do not consume food kept in fridge for more than 2 days (bacteria can still grow in cold conditions, just slower).

When re-heating frozen foods:
- use normal ovens versus microwave ovens. Normal ovens produce real heat while microwave ovens do not (they use magnetic induction which is different from heating)
- re-heat for at least 4 minutes in medium or high temperature
- leave food in oven a few more minutes after that to let the heat inside continue killing bacteria

When consuming outside food:
- avoid pre-cooked foods or re-heat them before consuming
- order food that will be cooked only when you order it
- food served in hot or boiling soup is preferred as the hot water helps kill bacteria
- if not sure, pick Indian briyani rice and food cooked in curry. Their spices have natural anti-bacterial properties (and India's gift to humanity)

[Notes:
- it is better to avoid outside food because most sellers use MSG which is poisonous
- they also do not wash ingredients properly
- hawker center tables and utensils are extremely dirty
- I always order dishes fresh out from the kitchens if lucky to see them being brought out]


Avoid All Man-made Foods, Sauces and DrinksAll canned and packaged foods and drinks (like soft drinks), and man-made sauces (tomato sauce, salad dressings etc), food sweeteners (like artificial sugar) and taste enhancers (like MSG) are poisonous and bad for health. They are not natural and do not exist in the natural environment!
Such 'manufactured' foods and drinks are made to last a few years because it is 'essential for business' (not health). It takes a few months to transport them from their factories to supermarkets around the world where they sit on shop selves and in people's kitchen cabinets for months before they are consumed. The reason why those foods and drinks can last so long is because they have been treated with chemicals (also known as 'preservatives') that kill off bacteria and germs, and stop them from growing. If those chemicals are poisonous to germs and bacteria, they are also poisonous to the cells in our bodies which are very similar in makeup to bacteria (read up about human cells).

Those chemicals also tend to make the foods and drinks acidic which is harmful to our bodies. Acids for example, dissolve the calcium in our bones resulting in under-development of bones and osteoporosis (weak bones) in old age.

[Note: If we leave a piece of fruit or meat on the table it would turn bad within a few hours because bacteria has started to eat it and multiplied. So how can those same things last for years in cans and plastic containers/bags?! Their manufacturers do not have magic. They are just using poisons to kill bacteria and stop them from re-growing! Those chemicals will have the same effect on our bodies except that it takes a longer time to take effect (and before we see their effects like cancers) because of our bodies' ability to heal itself. But the body can only do so much. Excessive dosage of those harmful chemicals would inevitably overwhelm the body's defences]


Avoid Farmed and Burnt Meat
All farmed animals (including farmed fish) contain high levels of man-made chemicals like growth hormones (to make them grow fast) and anti-biotics (to keep them from falling sick and die).

All these chemicals are not only toxic to our body but they are difficult to get rid off and therefore remain in our bodies for long periods. That is also why farmed meats should be avoided (more than farmed vegetables) - the toxins collected in those animals remains there and get passed on to us when we eat them. That is why cancers are highly related to the amount of meat consumed.

Over heating or burning foods like meat also change their chemical properties and make them highly toxic. So avoid burnt and barbequed meats, and fried foods!

But because protein is important for our health, one should not avoid meat entirely. Take them in small amounts. Beans, eggs, fish and seafood are better sources of proteins.

Avoid western foods. They use lots of meat and man-made sauces. If have to, choose fish burger or fish fillet.


Why Fish and Seafood?
One reason is because they live in water and water is a great solvent and cleanser! There is a higher chance that toxins in them will be removed by the water they swim and breathe in round the clock. Sea fish and seafood are preferable to fresh water ones for 2 reasons: the sea is less polluted than ponds (because of sheer size) and there is better chance that they are wild fish instead of farmed ones.

Another reason is they contain good Omega-3 oil and other minerals like iodine.

But BEWARE: seafood like mussels, cockels, clams and prawns are 'vacuum cleaners of the sea' meaning that they eat all the dead and 'dirty' matters at bottom of sea. Therefore toxins will accumulate in them - the bigger they are the more toxins. So choose the smallest sized ones!

[Notes: A friend of mine related this story. He has a businessman friend whose chicken farms supply chickens to KFC for the whole of Malaysia. That man told my friend that he does not eat chicken and advised my friend not to eat chicken. This was what he said 'in Nature, it takes a chicken 6 to 9 months to mature but we can do it in less than 2 months. How do you think we do that? We pump them with growth hormones!'

My mother also heard the same thing from small chicken farmers near my sisters home in a small town - they do not eat the chicken they sell, the ones they eat are 'kampung chickens' not fed with those chemicals.

Some chicken sold by supermarkets are labelled as 'free range' chickens. The 'theory' is they get to run around and are therefore healthier but it is just hype. They still feed them with lots of hormones and anti-biotics.

The same friend also told me about a friend he knew who died of intestinal cancer at about 40. That man liked to eat fried mee so much he had them every day! Intestinal cancer is one of the top killers in Malaysia and Singapore.
A cousin of mine died of intestinal cancer at age 41. I heard that he and family used to like eating satay a lot (burnt meat). When we visited him at home after he was diagnosed with that problem, we talked about the need to cut down on meat consumption. His response was 'yes, we cut down on meat a lot already'. So when we were invited to have lunch with them I was surprised to see that 3 out of 4 dishes had meat! Then I told myself that they did not know what they were talking about.]


Get Lots of Fresh Air
Like man-made food, 'modern' houses are all made with man-made materials like cement, fiberglass, asbestos, plastics, paints etc. which are all not natural and in many cases toxic. Those materials vaporize into the surrounding air and build up if those air is not expelled into the outside. That is why extended use of air-con is not healthy - they necessitate sealing up the house (to save energy) which result in accumulation of those toxins and reduction of oxygen level as they are used up over time.

For the same reason, air-coned public areas like malls and offices are the 'best' conveyors of air-born diseases like flu etc.

To maximise introduction of fresh air and keep house cool:
- have in-door live plants. They help absorb some of the toxins and introduce fresh oxygen into the air (the same way water plants treat water)
- create unblocked passages for fresh air to pass through house e.g. opening 1 window but closing all others stops air flow
- help push air into or out of house by placing fans at strategic locations along air passage preferably at entry and exit points like windows and door entrances
- make sure the fan assisted air-flow travel in one direction e.g. by not having 2 fans blowing in opposite directions


Have Regular Exercises and Sunlight
Exercise for at least 30 minutes 3 times a week. Exercise keeps the body and bone in shape.

Sunlight is important as it helps body to produce Vitamin D that cannot be gotten from any food. But too strong sunlight is dangerous because too much UV causes skin cancer. That is why brisk walks in early morning or evening is best (make sure to wear shoes with good 'shock absorption' to minimise damage to joints).

Have stretching exercises like bending, turning, sit ups daily.

Preferably children should play games daily with friend especially team games against team opponents. Team sports help to develop the brain, strengthen bones and muscles, develop hand-eye coordination, promote team work and helps children learn to read body language!