Price Trend & Technical Indicators

Notes on technical indicators:

- Since many people use them, they can be self-fulfilling since everyone will react the same way
- Use indicators over 3, 6 and 12 months time horizon
- Do not rely on only one indicator but watch out for multiple indicators to confirm
- Always look out for divergences (see below)
- Final decision must be based on fundamentals of economy, the company and its industry
- Review Market Indicators to set big picture before using technical indicators
   http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/key-market-indicators.html


FUNDAMENTALS

	BUY or UP Indicator	SELL or DOWN Indicator
LEI (US only)	Hit bottom (< -5) and turns upward	Down trend & go below 0
VIX (US mainly)	VIX > 30-40 and hits bottom of Wide VIX Bollinger Band	VIX < 20 and spikes up from Narrow VIX Bollinger Band
Margin of Safety	PE <  8;  Dividend > 8%	PE > 20;  Dividend < 3%
	P/FCF < 6, P/OCF < 3 P/Rev < 0.7 P/Book < 0.7, NAV discount 30%	P/FCF > 15, P/OCF > 6 P/Rev > 2.5 P/Book > 2, NAV premium 100%
Insider Actions   Industry	Insiders buying continuously   Company not in Sunset industry Not narrow/niche/hype market	Insiders selling continuously   Company in Sunset industry In narrow/niche/hype market

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

	BUY or UP Indicator	SELL or DOWN Indicator
Divergences Cross-Road Capitulation	As price trend down: - volume go down - MACD with higher lows - W%R >80 then turn up - RSI >70 & higher lows Doji (indecision) appear Gap between falling daily candles 3-4 days in a row	As price trend up: - volume go down - MACD with lower highs - W%R <20 then turn down - RSI <30 & lower peaks Doji (indecision) appear
Bollinger Band & Trade Volume MACD (3-6 months)	After price loss, band narrows & flattens, and volume drops (not many sellers left) Low MACD turn up AND higher bottoms as price go down,	After price gain, band narrows & flattens,  and volume drops (not many buyers) High MACD turn down AND lower highs as price up
Moving Average	20D MA bottom & go abv 50DMA 50D MA bottom & go abv 90/200D	20D MA top & go below 50D MA 50D MA top & go below 90/200D
Williams %R (3-6 months)	Price trend down but %R bottoms trend up fr below -80 (oversold) AND %R Spike UP to above 50 (suddenly lots of buying at low price)	Price trend up but %R tops trend down fr -20 (overbot) AND/OR %R Dive DOWN sharply from -20 (suddenly lots of selling at high price)
Slow Stochastic (3-6 months) Rate of Change	Below 20 (oversold) & %K go above %D Below -50 & turn up	Above 80 (overbot) & %K go above %D Above +100 & then go below 50
(60 day)
Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) Money Flow Index (3-6 months)	Below 30 (oversold) Hit below 20 (oversold) and bottoms trend up as price go lower or flat	Above 70 (overbot) Hit above 80 (overbot) and  tops trend down as price go higher or flat
Advance-Decline Line (for mkt indices)	both index and A/D line uptrend	index up but A/D line turn down
Doubles	Double Bottoms	Double Tops
Triples	Triple bottoms	Triple tops
Rounded bottoms	Wide bottom U-shape, bowl
Head & Shoulders	Inverted H&S and goes above neckline	H&S and goes below neckline
Wedge	Falling wedge	Upward wedge
	break upwards from descending  triangle	break downwards from ascending triangle

P/FCF (Price Over Free Cash Flow)
What is it: How much net cash is generated per share by company vs price of share
FCF is more indicative of actual income of company (vs accounting profit) because FCF includes depreciation and amortisation which are not real but 'accounting expenses'.

See also other close equivalents: Operating Cash Flow, Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortisation (OIBDA)

VIX (volatility index)  http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX#symbol=%5Evix;range=1y;compare=;indicator=bollinger+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
What is it: Calculated figure derived from option prices of S&P stocks that indicate potential S&P price change within next 12 months. E.g. VIX 15 means S&P price may move by 15% within 12 months. When index is low it indicates people expect prices to be relatively stable for next 12 months.

How to use:
- When S&P is cheap, VIX high (above 40) and CLEARLY retrace down to 20-30, time to buy
- When S&P is expensive, VIX low (low teens) and start STEEP climb above 20, time to sell


MACD (Moving Average)   http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FSSTI:IND/chart
What is it: Shows moving average price for previous 20, 50, 90 or 200 days.

How to use (example):
- When 20ma cross above 50ma, and price trend up: bottom reached, price likely to go higher (buy)
- When 20ma cross below 50ma, and price trend down: top reached, price likely to go lower (sell)


INSIDER ACTIONS  
What is it: Shows what insiders who know the company best are doing. Insiders may be senior staff, director, majority owners or substantial shareholders.

How to use (example):
- When insiders keep buying, buy
- When insiders keep selling, sell

Singapore: http://www.shareking.com/modules/Insider_Trade/
US: http://www.insidermonkey.com/insider-trading/


May 2013  http://www.munknee.com/2013/06/timing-the-market-using-trend-indicators/
By: Lorimer Wilson (www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com) and editor of www.munKNEE.com.

(Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article reposting with a link* to the article source to avoid copyright infringement.)


There are over 80 market indicators divided into 6 categories (trend, momentum, volatility, market strength, support/resistance and cycle). That being said some are very technical, some are infrequently used and some are more effective than others. The most popular indicators, and also available for use free at online charting service such as stockcharts.com and/or bigcharts.com, are those regarding:

• market trends
• market momentum (see here for a description of use of these indicators) and
• market strength and volatility (see here)

(Also, to even further understand the Patterns, Trends, Indicators and Formations of Technical Analysis read this article.)

It is always hard to know what to buy or sell let alone just when to do so. Thank goodness there are indicators available that provide such information. Below are descriptions of the 7 most popular trend indicators: Crossovers; Moving Average Convergence Divergence; Percentage Price Oscillator; Keltner Channels; Parabolic SAR; Traders’ Index; and Advance/Decline Line.

Trend Indicators
The price movement of a security over time is most easily analyzed by observing how its moving averages are trending. Either a simple moving average (where the movement during a specific time period is divided by the days of that time period) or an exponential moving average (where a mathematical formula gives greater emphasis to the more recent price movement) can be used and any period of time (up to 360 days on the various fine charting sites) can be studied.

The most common short-term time period is 20- or 21-days using an exponential moving average (ema), while the most popular medium-term periods are the 39- or 40- and 50-day using a simple moving average (ma).

To observe the long-term trend of the price movement of a security a 200-day ma is usually used and occasionally a 100-day ma. That being said, a large number of variations have been developed to satisfy particular needs and situations.

7 of the most popular trend indicators are as follows:

1. Crossovers
- used to forecast the future movements in the price of a stock such as when a stock or index moves above (bullish) or below (bearish) its 20-day moving average.

When a security’s long-term moving average (e.g. 50-day ma or ema) moves above its short-term moving average (e.g. 20-day ma or ema) it is referred to as a Death Cross and indicates a bear market on the immediate horizon, especially when it is reinforced by high trading volumes. Conversely, when a security’s short-term moving average moves above its long-term moving average, coupled with high trading volumes, it is referred to as a Golden Cross and indicates a bull market on the immediate horizon.

2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
- a trend-following momentum indicator of the exponential moving average (ema) of a stock or index which is used to identify short-term momentum. Specifically, the 26-day ema of a stock or index is subtracted from the 12-day ema to show an intermediate trend line. A 9-day ema, the ‘signal line,’ is then plotted over that intermediate term line to identify when to buy or sell the stock or index. When the resultant MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal, which indicates that it may be time to sell.

Conversely, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggests that the price of the asset is likely to experience upward momentum. Many traders wait for a confirmed cross above the signal line before buying or selling to avoid doing so too early and thereby avoid being ‘faked out’.

Traders also watch for a move above or below the zero line because this signals the position of the short-term average relative to the intermediate-term average. When the MACD is above zero, the short-term average is above the intermediate-term average, which signals upward momentum. The opposite is true when the MACD is below zero. The zero line often acts as an area of support and resistance for the indicator.

3. Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO)
- similar to the MACD but while the MACD shows the simple difference between the 2 exponential moving averages the PPO expresses this difference as a percentage which allows a trader to compare stocks with different prices more easily.

For example, regardless of the stock’s price, a PPO result of 10 means the short-term average is 10% above the intermediate-term average. That makes it much easier to choose one stock over another should the need arise.

4. Keltner Channels
- moving average bands/channels where the upper line represents the average high of a security over a 10-day period; the lower band the average low of a security over a 10-day period and the centre line the closing price of a security over the same 10-day period.

The trader is to sell the security when the closing price exceeds the upper band and to buy the security when the closing price falls outside the lower band. Like the other indicators mentioned it is best to add two or three other indicators to one’s charts to confirm any buy/sell signal.

5. Parabolic SAR
- used to determine the direction of a security’s momentum and the point in time when this momentum has a higher-than-normal probability of switching directions.

The parabolic SAR is shown as a series of dots placed either below a security’s price on a chart (a bullish signal causing traders to expect the momentum to remain in the upward direction) or above (a signal that the bears are in control and that the momentum is likely to remain downward).

As the price of the security rises, the dots will rise as well, first slowly (i.e. spaced well apart) and then picking up speed (i.e. getting closer and closer together) and accelerating with the trend. This accelerating system allows the investor to watch the trend develop and establish itself. The SAR starts to move a little faster as the trend develops and the dots soon catch up to the price line and that is when it is time to buy the security. A sell signal is triggered when the price line moves below the lower dot enabling an investor to position a stop-loss order.

The ability for the parabolic SAR to respond to changing conditions removes all human emotion and allows the trader to be disciplined. On the other hand, while the SAR works extremely well when a security is trending, it can lead to many false signals when the price moves sideways or is trading in a choppy market. That being the case, it is paramount that other indicators such as the stochastic oscillator, moving averages, etc. be used to ensure that all information is being considered.

6. Traders’ Index (TRIN)
- a short-term breadth indicator which measures the ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks and compares it to the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume.

When advancing volume exhibits discordance with the raw number of advancing stocks, the all-important sell signal is given. Conversely, when volume on the downside increases out of proportion with the number of declining stocks, an upside reversal is said to be imminent.

It is important to note that TRIN is handled differently in each of the different market conditions. In a bull market, the overbought line is placed at 0.65 or 0.70 but in a bear market at 0.70 or 0.75. The oversold line is placed at 0.90 or 0.95 in a bull market and at 1.00 or 1.10 in bear markets. Assuming the market has been correctly identified as a bull or a bear and the overbought and oversold lines have been correctly placed you should buy when the current TRIN crosses above its oversold line and sell when TRIN sinks below its upper overbought line.

When interpreted properly, TRIN can be one of the most powerful and accurate means of assessing the psychology of the market.

7. Advance/Decline Line (A/D)
- used to confirm the strength of a current trend and its likelihood of reversing. If the markets are up but the A/D line is sloping downwards, it’s usually a sign that the markets are losing their breadth and may be setting up to head in the other direction. If the slope of the A/D line is up and the market is trending upward then the market is said to be healthy.

Remember, the trend is your friend and now you have an arsenal of such indicators to make an extensive and in-depth assessment of whether you should be buying or selling. If ever there was a “cut and save” investment advisory this article is it.

Market Cycles

Market Cycles
 - Stock market cycle bottom every 3-4 years (since 1980)
 - Stock indices more than double every 10 year (that means savings must double every 10 years just to retain value)
 -

Key Market Indicators

Caution: Many indicators given here are US specific and may not represent other parts of the whole world esp. in future when the US loses its world influence & dominance. Also, those indicators may be manipulated by their governments!


Economic Indicators
US & global: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
Germany:  http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/ifoHome/a-winfo/d1index
What is it: Shows business confidence and whether economy is growing or not. Usually lags stock market by 1 month. Use this as confirmation of up or down trend.

How to use: If indicators improve or turn positive when share indices have been up for a few weeks, then good chance economy has turned better and share prices will continue to go up


National Debt, Budget Deficit http://ca.gdc.economist.com.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html
What is it: How much debt a country has and can they service the debt. Excessively high debts (above 100% GDP) and budget deficit (> 5%) indicate potential financing problem for country.

Notes:
 - includes sovereign debts (national, regional/state and city governments), private debts and unfunded future commitments (for retirement benefits like social security, medicare etc).
 - problem greater if significant portion of debt is denominated in foreign currency that country cannot 'print' to devalue their debt and ease repayment cost.

How to use: see above

	Bud Def	GDP	Tot Debt	Gov	Private
US		14.5T	380%	105%	280%
UK		2.3T	475%	85%	290%
Eurozone Germany		3.3T	450%? 280%	80%
France		2.7T	340%	90%
Italy		2.0T	310%	120%
Spain		1.4T	370%	85%	220%
Portugal		0.2T		95%
Japan		5.2T	500%	200%	300%
China		5.9T		20%
India		1.6T		55%
Brazil		2.0T		55%
Russia

Money Base 
US: http://ycharts.com/indicators/monetary_base
What is it: Total money 'issued' by central bank = paper currency in circulation plus bank deposits with central bank. Bank deposits at central bank (if not reduced) is money potentially available for lending out to the market thereby increasing total money supply significantly (due to multiplier effect).

Note: Other countries may not use the term 'money base' but otehr terms like M0 (e.g. UK). Therefore, M0, M1, M2 etc have different definition for different countries.

How to use: money base expansion indicates potential future money supply expansion. Use together with size of money supply.

                   US Fed B/S      ECB B/S    CHINA   JAPAN
 2012              2.9T                3.0T                         115T
 2008              0.9T                1.3T

Notes.
- 2008 US domestic money base is smaller by about $580B because 70% of currency money ($580B of $850B) is outside US. Therefore, monetary expansion thru 2012 is 10 times (since domestic base was only $270B in 2008)
- gold in US b/s valued at $43/oz??


Money Supply 
US  http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/monetary-base-money-supply
What is it: How much money in circulation. The more money, the 'cheaper' it becomes (i.e. money is being debased) and the higher prices of things and real stuffs will get (i.e. price inflation).

Governments use cheap money (expand money supply, lower interest rate, create inflation) to try to stimulate consumption and 'growth'. Since it also reduces the country's debt burden, inflation is the preferred option for all governments!

How to use: when money supply expand, everything will go up i.e. inflation!


Interest Rates  
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^FVX
What is it: How expensive is it to borrow money. Alternate indicator of how much money is in circulation. The more money around, the 'cheaper' borrowing money becomes.

How to use: when rates are low, money is cheap to borrow and a lot of money is available. Everything will go up in money terms!

US Treasury Holdings 2009:
 - US government retirement funds    3.3T
 - European banks                                ? T


Inflation Rates   
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
What is it: How quickly prices of goods are going up. Alternate indicator of how much money is in circulation. The more money around, the 'higher' inflation becomes. Prices of real stuffs like basic commodities, precious metals, land etc. will go up.

Notes:
 - Governments tend to under report inflation to make things 'look good' and hide their money printing from people. E,g, 'official' US consumer price index (CPI) does not include food, energy and house prices (but rentals), and use 'cheaper product substitution' when calculating inflation rate
 - High inflation lowers people's disposable income and lowers discretionary goods price due to lack of demand. Luxury and discretionary product/services businesses will be adversely affected. That is at least initially (1 or 2 years) but medium/long term they will also rise as money floods the market.

Beware: During financial crises (bursting of economic bubbles), deflation may happen because previous 'growth' was not real but driven by high supply of credit (money). In crises, those credit/money will be destroyed (lost) and people living off such credit lose wealth and forced to sell assets and cuts consumption resulting in lower prices.

How to use: when sudden deflation during financial crises, buy real assets or businesss owning real assets!


Share Prices   
US: http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#symbol=^gspc
What is it: State of share markets indicate health of economy. US S&P is a good proxy of overall world share prices & economy

How to use:


Oil Price   
Brent: http://www.oilnergy.com/1obrent.htm#since88
What is it: Price of Brent Crude indicates health of economy.

Notes:
 - Brent crude price is a good proxy as 2/3 of all oil sales are based on it (but may be controlled by Brits). Gazprom gas prices are linked to Brent crude.
 - Price always peak in May/June (25% higher than start of year) due to higher car consumption in 'summer holidays'.

How to use:


Gold/Silver Price   
London: http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/history.html
What is it: Price of gold indicates level of monetary debasement by governments.

Notes:
 - World gold production 2.3k tons/yr = 2% of total gold (165k tons)
 - above link is to prices per London fixing controlled by Brits. Refer also to HK fixing prices
 - gold/silver prices are manipulated by governments short-sell via JP Morgan, HSBC etc (if prices do not fall those banks are caught causing e.g. HSBC to cut businesses in 2012)

Government Gold Stock (tons) as of 2009:
  - US                8,000  (but reportedly short 4,000 to support USD)
  - EU              13,500
  - East Europe     800
  - IMF              3,200
  - Latin Am         500? (Venezuela alone 300)
  - Arabs           1,300
  - Asia             3,500 (China 1,000;  India  800;  Japan  750; Taiwan 400)


Demographics 
What is it: Distribution of population by age
  - age 30-40 spending on home first
  - age 40-45 spending peaks on kids schooling etc.
  - age 46-50 spending drops drastically as kids graduate & leave home
How to use:

Warren Buffett's Holdings

http://warren-buffett-portfolio.com/
http://stockpickr.com/pro/portfolio/warren-buffett/
http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett (with transaction history & prices)


Coca-Cola (Food)
Kraft (Food)
Procter and Gamble (Food)

Johnson & Johnson (Consumer)
Wal-Mart (Consumer)

Glaxo Smith Kline (Pharmaceutical)
Sanofi-Aventis (Pharmaceutical)

Conoco Philips (Oil & Gas)

Fools' Paradise

(BERNAMA) - The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) needs to set up a Housing Bank, to provide financing for contributors whose housing withdrawals fall short of the purchase price of their house, said the Federation of Malaysian Consumer Associations (Fomca).

Its president, Datuk N.Marimuthu, said that such a facility would be useful especially to the lower-income group, and overcome the need for the contributors to borrow from banks which imposed high interest rates.

In welcoming the EPF's six per cent dividend for 2011, Marimuthu said it was a sign that the economy had been picking up.

"We are glad the dividend is higher. It is important to maintain a strong investment return even as the membership keeps growing," he added.


...
written by ck, February 20, 2012 13:15:57

Fools' Paradise

"In welcoming the EPF's six per cent dividend for 2011, Marimuthu said it was a sign that the economy had been picking up"

Indians are the biggest buyers of gold in the world for decades (only to be surpassed by the Chinese the last few months). The reason why Indians and Chinese do that is because they know from experience that governments can 'print' paper money without end resulting in the devaluation of those 'monies' over time. In other words, governments steal their people's wealth by printing money and giving those 'new' money to themselves and their cronies to use.

Since 2007, the price of real stuffs like gold, silver, platinum and oil had more than doubled. The prices of those things had gone up so much because thieving governments had printed a lot of money since then (supposedly to save the global economy) and smart people holding those stuffs are refusing to part with them unless they are paid more and more of those toilet papers.

If workers' money in EPF were used to buy gold or any of the real stuffs above their value would have more than doubled over the last 4 years (or about 20% return or dividend per year)! Instead, that idiot above thinks that people giving him 6% dividend is so great and a 'sign that economy is picking up'.

That fool does not know that receiving a high dividend is a sign that the thieving government had printed so much money that they can afford to give workers which he represents more of the more worthless money known as Ringgit!

Guide to Healthy Living

Health Tips from Mayo Clinic
(Mayo Clinic is one of the top medical centers in the world. Their site also gives good diagnostic guides for all medical problems) http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/dietary-guidelines/MY01594


Drink Lots of Water (but Beware of What's in It)
More than 70% of our body is water. The brain has higher water content than other cells.
Water is a powerful solvent that helps remove wastes and toxins from our body.

1. Before sleep, drink a glass of water. After 8 hours of sleep the body will be very dehydrated. So immediately after waking up, drink at least 2 glasses of water and wash face and back of neck with water to moisturise the skin

2. Make sure you drink lots of water throughout the day. DO NOT wait until you are thirsty. Water here refers to plain water or liquids from fresh fruits like fresh coconut water or fresh soya bean drink, and not 'contaminated water' in liquids like coffee, tea, canned juices and soft drinks which are highly acidic and harmful to our bodies (see notes below on man-made foods and drinks).

3. Reduce the invisible poisons in drinking water
Pipes corrode over time. Many house pipes are made of copper or plastic because they are cheaper than steel pipes which are less liable to corrosion and decomposition. Copper pipes corrode quickly into poisonous copper oxide (which gives a bluish tinge to water coming out of unused taps).

Plastic in plastic pipes and plastic water containers decompose into toxic powders that cannot be seen by the naked eye. [Note: When I advise people shopping for water bottles not to buy plastic ones, the response I always get is 'but the label says it is BPA free'. But they never wonder why the label only say ONE toxic chemical is not present. What about the other toxic chemicals?]

Pipe water supplied by water utilities and swimming pools are treated with Chlorine to kill germs and bacteria but that same chlorine is highly toxic to our bodies (our cells are not very different from bacteria). Chlorine is one of the most poisonous element known. Public swimming pools have much higher concentration of chlorine than pipe water and their water is therefore very poisonous (therefore do not use such pools too often). Many poisonous insecticides and weed killers etc. are compounds with Chlorine as a component.

To reduce the level of toxins in water we drink, do the following:
- do not use water from long unused pipes for drinking. Drain a few liters from the taps before collecting for drinking purposes (keep the initial few liters for washing purposes). This is especially the case early in the morning when water had stayed in the pipes overnight
- use activated carbon filters: activated carbon absorbs dangerous chemicals including Chlorine
- keep water overnight in a steel container or steel cooking pot (do not use plastic water bottles) to give time for the dissolved chlorine to escape into the air
- boil water before drinking: heating cause the water to lose some of the Chlorine in addition to killing bacteria
- use glass, ceramic or steel water containers and bottles (do not use plastic ones)

4. Drinking slightly alkaline water MAY help because ingestion of meats and man-made foods which are highly acidic upsets the pH balance in our body. Alkaline water also dissolves oils and fats (one cause of stroke and heart attacks) better. Investigations found that water in some parts of the world where the people tend to live longer are slightly alkaline (because their water sources are in areas with alkaline rocks etc).

Meats and water with dissolved chemicals (due to pollution, corrosion and chemical treatment etc) and all the man-made foods tend to be acidic and upset the pH balance in our body if not neutralised. Cancer thrive in acidic environment.

There are water treatment units sold publicly that make water slightly alkaline. In 2011, I bought steel capsules containing organic stones (containing alkaline sources like calcium etc.) that can be used for 3 years selling at S$50 each.

But BEWARE:
- although drinking slightly alkaline water does no harm, there is no scientific proof that it makes a lot of difference either (because it gets neutralised immediately by acid in our stomach). Our body is a very complicated system and simply drinking slightly alkaline water is not the 'solve all'. It is better to minimise pH imbalance in our body by simply avoiding too much acidic meat and manufactured food/drink intake, and drinking lots of water throughout the day!
- One multi-level marketing (MLM) company I know of sell 'Kangen machines' (from Japan) that produce 'ionized alkaline' water for S$5,000 but there is no proof that they work (the MLM was also giving most of that money out as 'bonuses' to the various levels of introducers!)

http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/why-admire-her-old-water-and-not.html


GENERAL EATING GUIDE
Go Vegetarian Once a While and not eat meat for 1-2 days or regularly not have meat during alternate meals. You will feel very clean inside and fresh after that! Your faeces will not stink like when you eat meat. Note: A low-meat diet will make you sensitive to people who eat too much meat as they would smell of the animals they eat e.g. chinese people who like pork smell like pig when they get near to me which turns me off!

Eat easy to digest foods like fruits, soups, curds and porridge. Meats that are difficult to digest and the toxins they contain stress the body and shorten life span.

Avoid pre-cooked hawker food and utensils. If have to, take food served in hot & plain soups.

Never over eat, stop once you feel full. Over eating increases metabolic rate of cells which shortens their life span.

Do not lie down on couch or sleep after meals. Try to keep standing or go for a walk for 30 minutes. Otherwise make sure to sit upright. This is to avoid 'acid reflux' which is the back-flow of acid from stomach into oesophagus which will 'burn' linings in oesophagus resulting in 'chest burn' sensation.

Do NOT eat or drink acidic liquids 3 hours before sleep. Do not have oily and fatty food including milk and acidic drinks (like coffee, citrus fruit juice and soft drinks) at least 3 hours before going to bed. Consuming fatty and acidic food before sleeping triggers acid production in stomach that may 'burn' stomach ('gastric burn') and oesophagus ('acid reflux'). If hungry, drink hot milo, horlick, oat, sesame etc. (these drinks are starch based which require less stomach acid to digest). Use low fat milk if needed.

List of Good Foods:
http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/10-foods-for-fabulous-abs.html


Healthy Breakfast Regime
- drink at least 2 glasses of water after waking and before eating
- eat 1 half-boiled egg or sandwich with fried egg
- avoid coffee and tea (malted drinks etc are better)
- brush teeth after eating (not before)
http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2001/02/what-smart-chinese-feed-their-children.html
http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/dental-care.html

[Note: caffeine in coffee and black tea (as opposed to chinese and green tea) are acidic and thickens blood. Thick blood results in bad circulation and reduces its ability to dissolve and remove oil/fat and harmful substances from body and blood vessels thus contributing to strokes and heart attacks. Green and Chinese tea on the other hand thins blood and helps in dissolving oil/fat and harmful substances]

Eat Lots of Fruits, Nuts, Beans and Vegetables
They are all great sources of vitamins, anti-oxidants and essential minerals (only plants can produce vitamins, animals cannot). Like egg is to animals, fruits, nuts and beans are the 'future children' of plants. Because of that, nature 'invests heavily' in them to ensure survival of the species by making sure they contain all the best and important ingredients for growth and health of their young!

Eat freshly cut fruits. Do not eat cut fruits left on stalls without ice or not in fridges. They may be infested with bacteria after long expsoure.


Take Traditional Chinese Herbal Soups
Chinese long ago had experimented with various herbs and found the ones that are most helpful in maintaining good health. Traditional Chinese soups containing ginseng, 'tang gui', red plums, etc are good anti-oxidants and body cleansers. http://www.chinese-traditional-food.com/chinese-soups.html

Take them every 1 to 2 weeks and change the variety of soup and herbs each time.


Fight Bad Bacteria with Good Bacteria (the Indian Way)
Indians long ago found out that yogurt is good for health because it contains good bacteria. Our body, especially our gut, is full of bacteria. We can never get rid of them. In fact, we need good bacteria to help digestion and control the spread of bad bacteria. The cells in our body also contain ancient 'captured bacteria' that perform functions critical to our cell survival (you can say our body is a collection of bacteria!). Excesive bad bateria can cause big tummy, illness and cancer. Our body need good bacteria to function properly.

Take a few spoonful of yogurt 2 or 3 times a week (I recommend traditional indian yogurt sold by indian traditional shops - 300 cc for $1.20 - cheap and good).

Or drink 'lassi' which is prepared by mixing a few spoonfuls of yogurt and a pinch of salt in a glass of water. It is a tasty health drink!

[Note: bad bacteria (from gut) that get into our blood causes plaque to form in blood vessels (like plaque in teeth/gum) and is one cause of heart attacks and strokes]


Eat Freshly Prepared Food (Not more than 4 hours)Recently, the Singapore government came up with a law requiring all food caterers to label their food preparation time and warned people not to consume food more than 4 hours old because bacterial growth is significantly higher when kept beyond 4 hours.

When consuming home cooked meals:
- consume immediately after preparation
- place unconsumed food in fridge immediately.
- do not consume food kept in fridge for more than 2 days (bacteria can still grow in cold conditions, just slower).

When re-heating frozen foods:
- use normal ovens versus microwave ovens. Normal ovens produce real heat while microwave ovens do not (they use magnetic induction which is different from heating)
- re-heat for at least 4 minutes in medium or high temperature
- leave food in oven a few more minutes after that to let the heat inside continue killing bacteria

When consuming outside food:
- avoid pre-cooked foods or re-heat them before consuming
- order food that will be cooked only when you order it
- food served in hot or boiling soup is preferred as the hot water helps kill bacteria
- if not sure, pick Indian briyani rice and food cooked in curry. Their spices have natural anti-bacterial properties (and India's gift to humanity)

[Notes:
- it is better to avoid outside food because most sellers use MSG which is poisonous
- they also do not wash ingredients properly
- hawker center tables and utensils are extremely dirty
- I always order dishes fresh out from the kitchens if lucky to see them being brought out]


Avoid All Man-made Foods, Sauces and DrinksAll canned and packaged foods and drinks (like soft drinks), and man-made sauces (tomato sauce, salad dressings etc), food sweeteners (like artificial sugar) and taste enhancers (like MSG) are poisonous and bad for health. They are not natural and do not exist in the natural environment!
Such 'manufactured' foods and drinks are made to last a few years because it is 'essential for business' (not health). It takes a few months to transport them from their factories to supermarkets around the world where they sit on shop selves and in people's kitchen cabinets for months before they are consumed. The reason why those foods and drinks can last so long is because they have been treated with chemicals (also known as 'preservatives') that kill off bacteria and germs, and stop them from growing. If those chemicals are poisonous to germs and bacteria, they are also poisonous to the cells in our bodies which are very similar in makeup to bacteria (read up about human cells).

Those chemicals also tend to make the foods and drinks acidic which is harmful to our bodies. Acids for example, dissolve the calcium in our bones resulting in under-development of bones and osteoporosis (weak bones) in old age.

[Note: If we leave a piece of fruit or meat on the table it would turn bad within a few hours because bacteria has started to eat it and multiplied. So how can those same things last for years in cans and plastic containers/bags?! Their manufacturers do not have magic. They are just using poisons to kill bacteria and stop them from re-growing! Those chemicals will have the same effect on our bodies except that it takes a longer time to take effect (and before we see their effects like cancers) because of our bodies' ability to heal itself. But the body can only do so much. Excessive dosage of those harmful chemicals would inevitably overwhelm the body's defences]


Avoid Farmed and Burnt Meat
All farmed animals (including farmed fish) contain high levels of man-made chemicals like growth hormones (to make them grow fast) and anti-biotics (to keep them from falling sick and die).

All these chemicals are not only toxic to our body but they are difficult to get rid off and therefore remain in our bodies for long periods. That is also why farmed meats should be avoided (more than farmed vegetables) - the toxins collected in those animals remains there and get passed on to us when we eat them. That is why cancers are highly related to the amount of meat consumed.

Over heating or burning foods like meat also change their chemical properties and make them highly toxic. So avoid burnt and barbequed meats, and fried foods!

But because protein is important for our health, one should not avoid meat entirely. Take them in small amounts. Beans, eggs, fish and seafood are better sources of proteins.

Avoid western foods. They use lots of meat and man-made sauces. If have to, choose fish burger or fish fillet.


Why Fish and Seafood?
One reason is because they live in water and water is a great solvent and cleanser! There is a higher chance that toxins in them will be removed by the water they swim and breathe in round the clock. Sea fish and seafood are preferable to fresh water ones for 2 reasons: the sea is less polluted than ponds (because of sheer size) and there is better chance that they are wild fish instead of farmed ones.

Another reason is they contain good Omega-3 oil and other minerals like iodine.

But BEWARE: seafood like mussels, cockels, clams and prawns are 'vacuum cleaners of the sea' meaning that they eat all the dead and 'dirty' matters at bottom of sea. Therefore toxins will accumulate in them - the bigger they are the more toxins. So choose the smallest sized ones!

[Notes: A friend of mine related this story. He has a businessman friend whose chicken farms supply chickens to KFC for the whole of Malaysia. That man told my friend that he does not eat chicken and advised my friend not to eat chicken. This was what he said 'in Nature, it takes a chicken 6 to 9 months to mature but we can do it in less than 2 months. How do you think we do that? We pump them with growth hormones!'

My mother also heard the same thing from small chicken farmers near my sisters home in a small town - they do not eat the chicken they sell, the ones they eat are 'kampung chickens' not fed with those chemicals.

Some chicken sold by supermarkets are labelled as 'free range' chickens. The 'theory' is they get to run around and are therefore healthier but it is just hype. They still feed them with lots of hormones and anti-biotics.

The same friend also told me about a friend he knew who died of intestinal cancer at about 40. That man liked to eat fried mee so much he had them every day! Intestinal cancer is one of the top killers in Malaysia and Singapore.
A cousin of mine died of intestinal cancer at age 41. I heard that he and family used to like eating satay a lot (burnt meat). When we visited him at home after he was diagnosed with that problem, we talked about the need to cut down on meat consumption. His response was 'yes, we cut down on meat a lot already'. So when we were invited to have lunch with them I was surprised to see that 3 out of 4 dishes had meat! Then I told myself that they did not know what they were talking about.]


Get Lots of Fresh Air
Like man-made food, 'modern' houses are all made with man-made materials like cement, fiberglass, asbestos, plastics, paints etc. which are all not natural and in many cases toxic. Those materials vaporize into the surrounding air and build up if those air is not expelled into the outside. That is why extended use of air-con is not healthy - they necessitate sealing up the house (to save energy) which result in accumulation of those toxins and reduction of oxygen level as they are used up over time.

For the same reason, air-coned public areas like malls and offices are the 'best' conveyors of air-born diseases like flu etc.

To maximise introduction of fresh air and keep house cool:
- have in-door live plants. They help absorb some of the toxins and introduce fresh oxygen into the air (the same way water plants treat water)
- create unblocked passages for fresh air to pass through house e.g. opening 1 window but closing all others stops air flow
- help push air into or out of house by placing fans at strategic locations along air passage preferably at entry and exit points like windows and door entrances
- make sure the fan assisted air-flow travel in one direction e.g. by not having 2 fans blowing in opposite directions


Have Regular Exercises and Sunlight
Exercise for at least 30 minutes 3 times a week. Exercise keeps the body and bone in shape.

Sunlight is important as it helps body to produce Vitamin D that cannot be gotten from any food. But too strong sunlight is dangerous because too much UV causes skin cancer. That is why brisk walks in early morning or evening is best (make sure to wear shoes with good 'shock absorption' to minimise damage to joints).

Have stretching exercises like bending, turning, sit ups daily.

Preferably children should play games daily with friend especially team games against team opponents. Team sports help to develop the brain, strengthen bones and muscles, develop hand-eye coordination, promote team work and helps children learn to read body language!

Sailor Who Got Medal for Sinking Ship

During the 2nd World War, the use of submarines to torpedo enemy ships was a pretty effective tactic as detection of submarines and incoming torpedoes were difficult then (sonar for submarine detection was new and not very advanced)

The only means available to ships then was to post sailors on the front deck to act as look outs for submarines and torpedoes.

On one instance, a ship was torpedoed because the sailor tasked to do submarine watch on night shift fell asleep on his watch. But because he was one of the least affected by the blast because of his position on the front deck, he ended up going round helping to save other sailors who were sleeping below deck when the ship was torpedoed. The other sailors who were asleep that he saved were very appreciative of his effort and recommended him for a 'hero's medal' and he was subsequently awarded one.

However, people who knew that he was the one who was on submarine watch when the ship was attacked questioned the award and said that he should not be awarded the medal because the ship was torpedoed because of he 'fell asleep' on his watch. His 'heroic act' would not have been necessary if he had not fallen asleep on his job in the first place!

People management schools since then had used it as a case example of bad management practice when managers with bad judgement (or low awareness) reward people for fixing a problem that was caused by them in the first place.


CCK's comment: the award of the medal to that sailor may make him look good to people who were sleeping and did not know that he was the man on watch duty who fell asleep on his job. But to people who knew about his failure on his job, he was not deserving of it. The difference is information and awareness (Level 2 of '3 Levels of Human Development').

Just because one piece of information were witheld from you or you miss it, you may end up with a very different impression. That is why it is important to remember the 'elephant and blindmen' fable...

10 Foods for Fabulous Abs

Yahoo Singapore

1. Yogurt is magic for the tum. Nutritionist Rania Batayneh recommends yogurt, “The probiotic bacteria in most yogurts help keep your digestive system healthy, which translates into a lower incidence of gas, bloating, and constipation, which can keep your tummy looking flat." Ideally go for the plain-flavoured yogurts, that don’t contain added sugars.

2. Switch to whole grain. The body shows a decreased insulin response to whole grain as compared to refined carbohydrate like rice and white bread. So replace those meals of white rice and milk bread with whole grains like lentils, brown rice, and whole wheat bread for a trimmer waistline.

3. Stock up on cruciferous veggies like broccoli, brussels sprouts, asparagus, peppers, and yellow beans. They contain folate, beta-carotene, calcium, magnesium, and fiber, and are rich in vitamins A, C, and K.

4. Olive Oil: Mono-unsaturated fats like those found in olive oil, work to reduce belly fat and don’t increase calorie intake.

5. Apple cider vinegar: New research indicates that 2 tablespoons of apple cider vinegar (ideally mixed with a glass of water), consumed daily over a period of 12 weeks, works to lower body weight and reduce belly fat. This is attributed to vinegar's acetic acid, which is believed to pump out proteins that break down fat.

6. Green tea contains certain chemicals called polyphenols and catechins that boost metabolism and help burn fat. Including 2-3 cups of green tea in your diet will help reduce that waistline, as well as provide a host of other health benefits.

7. Apples are one of the most popular negative calorie foods. This means that an apple burns more calories that it adds to the body, while being digested, making for a great, tasty snack that does nothing to add to body fat.

8. Eggs are a great source of protein and contain essential amino acids that the body needs to build everything from muscle fibres to brain chemicals. It is the perfect breakfast food, and ensures you feel less hungry during the day and reduces that urge to snack. [CCK : Eggs contain Choline which is essential for brain function]

9. Almonds provide the body with minerals like magnesium, and regulate blood sugar levels. A stable blood sugar level is key to prevent cravings that can lead to overeating.

10. Salmon, tuna and mackerel, in addition to being a great source of omega-3 fatty acids, also improve metabolism and help burn fat faster by improving the body’s glucose-insulin response. [CCK: should be ALL non-farm salt water fish because the oceans are much bigger than fresh water ponds and therefore have lower concentration of pollutants, and farmed fish are fed mam-made chemicals]

Why Admire Her Old Water and Not NeWater

Sep 2011 (DRAFT)

One day during one of my morning bike rides I took a detour to the water processing plant off Upper Changi Road (near Singapore Expo). On the site is a new water processing plant that uses reverse osmosis to produce what the local company doing it calls 'NeWater'. Opposite that new plant is the previous one that used to process water from a few ponds next to it. It has been decommissioned and being demolished, and a continuous stream of trucks were dumping soil to fill up the ponds there.

With all those ponds, the land area occupied by the old plant was much larger than the NeWater plant. That, I am sure, was one of the reasons why they switched treatment approach - their land is 'valuable real estate'.

From outside the entrance of the old plant I saw many white herons around an unfilled pond next to the entrance. So I went about 20 feet into the compound to take in that beautiful sight before it disappears forever.

A guard approached and told me that I could not enter the compound. I said I would leave in a couple of minutes after taking in the sight. Soon after that, a woman official (of some rank given the way she talked) on her way out told me the same thing and then jokingly asked me 'why are you admiring my old water and not NeWater' (produced by the new plant across the road).

I told the woman this:

That's the problem with Singaporeans. Simply because someone labelled the water they produced 'NeWater', those suckers think that the water from that new plant is better and 'newer' than what nature provides in those ponds (which is 'old water' to her).

They think that with a pump and some membranes, they can treat (and cleanse) salt and sewage water better than Nature can with evaporation, biological filtration and all. If some pumps and man-made membranes can clean sewage and salt water so well, then the whole world especially advanced countries would have done that long ago instead of waiting for them Singaporeans to do it.

Any one who knows about water treatment knows that no man-made water treatment system can compare to the cleansing power of the ecosystem in a natural water system.

Since she obviously does not know that, I told her to go see if the Germans (who, to me, have one of the greatest scientific and engineering minds) would be impressed with their NeWater and produce their drinking water that way.

And pointing towards the herons around the natural pond, I asked if she can find any heron around the new plant which has a man-made pond with kois. Those birds are sharper than many humans - they know which water is better and which is poisonous. Just by the fact that the herons do not find food in some pond is enough indication of the problem with the water in that pond.

In addition, if she thinks that the 'NeWater' is that great, then she should feed her children with only NeWater from the new plant and see what happens in a few years. I am sure their authorities who had been adding NeWater into the fresh water supply they get from Malaysia know of the risks and had been experimenting with different levels of mixtures and tracking the resulting health impact. It is just that people like her does not know about it because the authorities do not tell them or they are not interested. (see notes below)

I also told her to offer 2 glasses of water - one with water from Malaysia and another with NeWater - to any of her Indian workers around there and see which one they pick.

That's the problem with simple and ignorant people who think they are very 'advanced'. They think technology can solve everything. In this case, free up a big piece of land and yet produce 'better' NeWater.

She kept quiet, told me to enjoy the view and went off.


Additional Background :

During the 1998 financial crisis, the Malaysian government approached Singapore for financial help. Singapore said that they would consider the request if Malaysia was willing to negotiate on a 'package' of issues including that of extending fresh water supplies to Singapore.

Apparently, the existing water agreement was negotiated decades ago between the British rulers of Singapore and the then Sultan of Johor who was represented by another British officer. Under that agreement, Singapore pays 3 sen per 1,000 gallons of raw water and there was no allowance for inflation throughout the tenor of the agreement!

Malaysia says that Singapore was making a lot of profits from the old agreement because Singapore charges local households about S$3.50 per thousand gallons and from supplying foreign ships docking in Singapore while Malaysia got only 3 sen (which was less than 1.5 Singapore cents). Singapore's point is they pay for treatment of the raw water and sends some of those treated water back to Malaysia at a discount.

[I did some research on web and found out from a US university study that in the US, the average cost of water treatment was about USD 1.20 or about SGD 1.80 per thousand gallons. Assuming Singapore's cost is as high as that 'first world' country, their total cost was about SGD 1.82 giving profit of about SGD 1.60. So Malaysia do have a point - I make less than 1.5 cents while you make 1.60]

The cause of that problem was because the British had shortchanged the ignorant Sultan of Johor decades ago by not building in inflation into the agreement they brokered among themselves. As a result, Malaysia wanted to raise future price to 60 sen (less than SGD 25 cent) and adjustable for inflation.

Singapore's position is supplies under the current agreement cannot be changed as it was 'agreed' but they are agreeable to new pricing for any extension but the new price 'must be lower than what it costs Singapore to produce water from other sources' (presumably the latter is newer or better!)

For more than a decade since, all the Singaporeans I spoke to do not know or are bothered about the whole thing which I find disturbing. They have no interest for something as important as their future water supply!

Top 5 Regrets

By Bronnie Ware

For many years I worked in palliative care. My patients were those who had gone home to die. Some incredibly special times were shared. I was with them for the last three to twelve weeks of their lives.

People grow a lot when they are faced with their own mortality. I learned never to underestimate someone's capacity for growth. Some changes were phenomenal. Each experienced a variety of emotions, as expected, denial, fear, anger, remorse, more denial and eventually acceptance. Every single patient found their peace before they departed though, every one of them.

When questioned about any regrets they had or anything they would do differently, common themes surfaced again and again. Here are the most common five:

1. I wish I'd had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me
This was the most common regret of all. When people realize that their life is almost over and look back clearly on it, it is easy to see how many dreams have gone unfulfilled. Most people have had not honored even a half of their dreams and had to die knowing that it was due to choices they had made, or not made. It is very important to try and honor at least some of your dreams along the way. From the moment that you lose your health, it is too late. Health brings a freedom very few realize, until they no longer have it.

2. I wish I didn't work so hard
This came from every male patient that I nursed. They missed their children's youth and their partner's companionship. Women also spoke of this regret. But as most were from an older generation, many of the female patients had not been breadwinners. All of the men I nursed deeply regretted spending so much of their lives on the treadmill of a work existence. By simplifying your lifestyle and making conscious choices along the way, it is possible to not need the income that you think you do. And by creating more space in your life, you become happier and more open to new opportunities, ones more suited to your new lifestyle.

3. I wish I'd had the courage to express my feelings
Many people suppressed their feelings in order to keep peace with others. As a result, they settled for a mediocre existence and never became who they were truly capable of becoming. Many developed illnesses relating to the bitterness and resentment they carried as a result.

We cannot control the reactions of others. However, although people may initially react when you change the way you are by speaking honestly, in the end it raises the relationship to a whole new and healthier level. Either that or it releases the unhealthy relationship from your life. Either way, you win.

4. I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends
Often they would not truly realize the full benefits of old friends until their dying weeks and it was not always possible to track them down. Many had become so caught up in their own lives that they had let golden friendships slip by over the years. There were many deep regrets about not giving friendships the time and effort that they deserved. Everyone misses their friends when they are dying. It is common for anyone in a busy lifestyle to let friendships slip. But when you are faced with your approaching death, the physical details of life fall away. People do want to get their financial affairs in order if possible. But it is not money or status that holds the true importance for them. They want to get things in order more for the benefit of those they love. Usually though, they are too ill and weary to ever manage this task. It is all comes down to love and relationships in the end. That is all that remains in the final weeks, love and relationships.

5. I wish that I had let myself be happier
This is a surprisingly common one. Many did not realize until the end that happiness is a choice. They had stayed stuck in old patterns and habits. The so-called 'comfort' of familiarity overflowed into their emotions, as well as their physical lives. Fear of change had them pretending to others, and to their selves, that they were content. When deep within, they longed to laugh properly and have silliness in their life again.

When you are on your deathbed, what others think of you is a long way from your mind. How wonderful to be able to let go and smile again, long before you are dying. Life is a choice. It is YOUR life. Choose consciously, choose wisely, choose honestly. Choose happiness.

Decision Making Tool

Here is a guide to assist in making decisions. This approach is followed by all organisations and businesses when they are about to embark on major projects or undertakings.

There are always many ways or alternatives to achieving a set of goals. The ability to identify different alternatives and choosing the 'best' alternative requires discipline, creativity and structured analysis.

Many people make decision mistakes because they lack discipline and do not properly identify and evaluate alternatives before doing things. Their 'Just Do It' approach is dangerous and can be costly later.

Each alternative has costs/benefits and risks that should be properly understood and compared against other alternatives in a structured manner. The guide here provides some structure to that analysis and decision making.

Only when one do a good job understanding different alternatives can one make good and effective choices - i.e. attain Level 3 in life. (http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/2-pieces-of-paper-for-life.html)

Another helpful tool is 'Question 3 Levels Down' when trying to find things out or understand things better (http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/question-3-level-down.html)


STEPS TO FOLLOW:

1. List out the end goal(s) i.e what one wants out of the project or undertaking
2. Identify alternative ways/paths to achieve those end goal(s)
3. Determine other evaluation criteria that are important to making the right decision. It includes consideraions like costs and benefits (see notes below)
4. Evaluate how well each alternative perform against or meet each evaluation criteria (as compared to other alternatives)


TEMPLATE OF ANALYSIS TABLE FOR DECISION MAKING:


Evaluation Criteria .............. Alternative 1 ........Alternative 2 ........ Alternative 3

GOALS:
- goal 1 .............................................. Hi ............................. Hi .............................. Med
- goal 2 .............................................. Med ......................... Med ........................... Low

TANGIBLE COSTS / BENFITS ($) :
- cost 1 ................................................ ? .................................. ? ............................... ?
- cost 2 ................................................ ? .................................. ? ............................... ?
- benefit (income) 1 ........................... ? .................................. ? ............................... ?
- benefit (income) 2 ........................... ? .................................. ? ............................... ?
NET COST / BENEFIT .................... ? ................................. ? ............................... ?

INTANGIBLE COSTS / BENEFITS :
- intangible cost 1 .............................. Hi ................................ Med .......................... Low
- intangible cost 2 .............................. Low ............................. Hi ............................. Med
- intangible benefit 1 ......................... Med ............................. Med .......................... Low
- intangible benefit 2 ......................... Hi ................................ Med ........................... Hi

RISKS:
- risk 1 ................................................... ? .................................... ? ................................ ?
- risk 2 ................................................... ? .................................... ? ................................ ?


Explanation of Terms:

Goals - the ultimate aims or objectives of the undertaking (always start with the end in mind).

Alternatives - different ways or paths that will accomplish the goals.

Tangible costs/benefits - things that you can put a monetary value to e.g cost of food or accomodation, fees, income etc.

Intangible costs/benefits - things that you cannot put a monetary value to but is nevertheless important to be considered in the decision making. Since you cannot put a value to an intangible item, assign a 'relative score' for each alternative (relative to the other alternatives).

Opportunity Costs - value of something you forgo or give up on if you pick an option. E.g. if you spend $100,000 on something instead of investing it, your opportunity cost for spending that money is the investment income you'd forgo (if you have invested that money instead of spending it)

Risks - potential risks associated with an alternative. See Understanding and Managing Risks http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/life-is-all-about-understanding-and.html

Evaluation Criteria - the goals, cost/benefit items and risks that one has to consider and analyse as part of the decision making process. Each alternative is evaluated in terms of its impact on or ability to meet each evaluation criteria.


Why Do People Do Analysis Using Such a Tool?

Thoroughness: to capture all inputs & views - there are always many things (evaluation criteria) to consider when making major decisions. In addition, there may be different views or inputs from many people either because they have 'interests' in the undertaking or because one has consulted others for their views. It is not possible for one to remember everything. Putting all those different input/views on paper ensures that all input are not 'forgotten' as one progress with analysis work. (One's precious brain resources are better used on information gathering and analysis work instead)

Framework for comparing alternatives - the template provides a framework to make sure that the decision maker evaluates how each alternative perform against every evaluation criteria so that a 'fair comparison' can be made. Some times unstructured decision makers apply a criteria to some alternatives but do not apply it on others resulting in unfair comparison or incomplete analysis.

Avoid confusion - because there may be many goals, alternatives, evaluation criteria and input (from many people) involved in a big project, the tool ensures that all are captured and considered. That way, the analyser or decision maker would not be confused (or 'gabra') every time something 'new' comes along (like some one giving a new input). If an important new input is received, the decision maker can quickly review the new input against what is existing in template to see if it is already captured/addressed. If not, new input is added and evaluated.

Easy Review - With all key evaluation criteria, findings and comparisons put in one piece of paper, it is much easier to review one's analysis work when required. That includes reviewing it with other people with interests in the project (one does not need to talk and talk or repeat one's findings again and again with different people)