Current and Key Entries

This entry contains the key blog entries to be kept current or are forever relevant.

Sources of News and Views: http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.sg/2012/02/sources-of-news-and-views.html

Macro Economic Linkages: http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.sg/2012/02/macro-economic-linkages.html

Key Economic Indicators: http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.sg/2012/02/key-market-indicators.html

Technical Indicators: http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.sg/2012/02/price-trend-indicators.html

2 Pieces of Paper for Life: http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.sg/2012/01/2-pieces-of-paper-for-life.html

Guide to Healthy Living: http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.sg/2012/02/guide-to-healthy-living.html

Food Encyclopaedia: http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.sg/2013/03/natural-food-encyclopaedia.html

Macro Economic Linkages

This page records key world developments in chronological order. Many things happening today are the results of things set in motion in the past. Only by being aware of major past events and by understanding their linkages and implications can one predict and thus prepare for the future. That big-picture requires knowledge of history and effort...

2050
 - Projected car population = 2.5 B. Estimated oil per 1B cars = 60 mbpd
2040

2030
 - World oil production shortfall = 18 MBD (demand = 118 mbpd)
2021/22
 - Germany to close 6 (2021) + 3 (2022) nuclear power stations
 - China car pop =  200m; gas shortage=90 bcm/yr
          > oil & gas price up

2018
  - World energy demand proj = 140% of 2014
  - RUS gas supply to CHN starts; 38+30bcm/yr @$350/kcm = $700b (EU Turkey 170bcm, UKR 70)
  - CNY to be fully convertible

2017
  - EU banks to reduce assets by EUR3.2T & raise cap 50B to comply with Basel III
  - US Next big credit refinancing due to start
       http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-05/another-looming-credit-crunch
          > reduced money supply, deflation?
2016
  - IND, PAK joins SCO??
  - UK EU exit (Brexit) referendum: YES (vs Scotland N Ireland NO) > UK Breakup, Euroland
  - NATO declare cyber-attack will trigger collective defense!
  - interest rate of 10-year Bund goes NEGATIVE!
  - Swiss referendum on free USD2,500/month per person: voted NO
  - FRA to lead study on incr use of IMF SDR
  - SPIMEX plan to trade oil in Ruble
  - COMEX paper gold to physical ratio 300-1 (vs 30-1 n 2013)
  - Deutsche Bank admit fixing gold/silver (2013 US CFTC said no fixing after 5-yr investigation!)
  - 2nd senior GER reporter say 'fix' by CIA (also see Operation Mockingbird)
  - 37 countries setup Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
  - BRICS Devt Bank start ops (BRICS Africa investment $67b vs 80b total)
  - CHN ICBC-Standard join LME gold fix, buy Barclays & DB London gold vaults
             (HSBC, BOE vaults only others in London)
  - CHN Fosun buy NY Chase Plaza with JPM gold vault (world largest, >football field)

2015
  - EU LTRO; US QE expire??
         > liquidity crunch & rate hikes (unless extended) > EMkts collapse!!
  - World oil production shortfall = 10 mbpd
          > oil price = USD 200?
  - FSB agreement to limit stock margin to 50% > reduce stock, incr bond holdings
  - CHN sold $250b UST in 2015 (after shifting holdings to Belgium)
  - CHN-SA to settle 40% of $100B trade using CNY
  - CNY included in IMF SDR (11% weighting came mostly from Euro and GBP's share)
  - BRICS Development Bank start ops ($100b); BRICS hold 50% global currency reserve
  - SEP UN approve Palestine & Vatican flag in UN
  - MAY FIFA corruption cases erupt (weeks aft FIFA drop 2014 Palestine request Israel sanction)
  - JAN FRA Charlie Hebdo attack < DEC 14 FRA Lower Hse YES to Palestinian state

2014
  - World energy consumption: 500b Mbtu/yr = 2.5 oil consumption
     CHN 120b Mbtu (2001 50b) = 1.4 US (88b), 3.6 IND, 4 RUS, 7 JPN, 10 GER/BRA

  - Global GDP $75T, stocks $60T, bond $100T, Derivs $700T, CB b/s $22T, FX $5T/day
    Global Debt $200T (US 58T, CHN 28T)
  - 36m people with >$30m wealth (holdings: EU $6.4T, Asia $5.9T, NA $5.5T)

  - NOV Holland say repatriated 122t gold from US < Jul 14 MH17 shot down in Ukraine?
  - NOV UK & US fine 6 banks for FX fixing > GDP, USD up?

  - RUS change South Stream pipeline via Bulgaria to Turkey (aft US pressure)
  - CHN & RUS plan international payment system (SWIFT alternative)
     < US, EU sanction on RUS re UKR civil war
  - CHN Union Pay (CUP) transaction volume surpass Amex
  - CHN announce gold fix in CNYuan
  - CHN complete South-North water transfer project (since 2002)
  - Vatican bank close 8% a/cs (mafia etc), profit drop 97%
  - US fine UK, FRA, GER banks for gold silver fixing
  - US FATCA goes into effect, US drops munis from allowed bank liquid asset list!
  - US states legalise marijuana > increase GDP!
  - UK, ITA etc include drug & prostitution in GDP!
  - FEB Ukraine govt toppled (Maidan) > civil war in east UKR, Crimea joins RUS, 40t gold to US
 
2013
  - World oil demand 90m bbl/day: DM 38m, rest 52m

  - CHN propose One Belt One Road idea (land and sea new Silk Road)  
  - UK fine banks for LIBOR fixing > 2014 DB quit libor fix
  - AUG JPN public debt JPY1 Quadrillion < 'Abenomics'!
             > huge money printing > Yen carry > inflation?
 - JUL US change GDP calculation method and GDP increased by $500B!
              > to reduce debt/GDP ratio
 - JUN CME raise gold future margin 25% (2nd time in 2 months; $7,200 to $8,800)
            US claim banks manipulate commodity prices via warehouse etc (JPM close biz)
            EU claim banks control OTC swaps mkt & refuse to develop swaps exchanges
            Urakali pull out of international potash cartel
 - MAY US close Costa Rican e-money exch Liberty Reserve for $laundering
              > suppression of alternate money
 - MAY Targus closed gold fund due to 'customer redemptions'
              Rothschild's HKMEx closed (aft 2 yrs); settled gold in cash > gold default
 - MAY Turkey Riots
 - MAY EU to consider limiting re-hypothecation behind $80T shadow banking market
             > drop in credit pool/expansion
 - MAY CHN to limit commodity financing deals (re-hypos) to control capital inflows
              > reduced EUR/CNY supply & credit > deflation?
 - MAY EU investigate oil price manipulation by publisher Platts (McGraw Hill)
 - MAY US to 'investigate millions of commodity swaps'
             > WHY? oil/commodity price suppression?
 - APR Goldman: sell gold @ $1520 > 2 days later plunged 15% over few days
            COMEX gold stock ultra low; raise future margin 18.5% ($5,900 to 7,200)
            > raid of GLD gold holdings, gold/silver price suppression
 - APR US,UK investigate ISDAFix manipulation
 - MAR ABN Amro stopped gold deliveries > gold default
 - MAR Texas to repatriate gold from FED > no gold?
 - MAR BRICS announced plan to setup BRICS Development Bank
 - MAR Cyprus confiscate bank deposits (Gazprombank, RUS-CHN oil deal affected?)
 - MAR Abenomics: BOJ to buy $70B/month JGBs, equities > carry trade, inflation
 - JAN FRA attack Mali 'rebels' ('ex-Libyan mercenaries'); Mar2012 US supported coup
 - JAN GER to repatriate 450t gold fr FRA & 20% of 1,500t fr US over 7 yrs > US no gold?
 - JAN Egan-Jones ban fr rating US bonds, MBS for 18 mths (downgraded US 3x fr Jul 11)

2012
 - Central bank balance sheet of US,UK,EU,JPN&CHN incr fr 2007 $7T to $15T
 - US monetary base at 2.6T (vs 0.8T Jul 08); national debt=101% of $14T GDP;
         unfunded liab=$116T > inflation
 - EU public debt refinancing needs for 2012 = 23% GDP (about $3T)

 - NOV IND bans bank financing of gold after doubling import tax to 4%
 - NOV CHN change leadership (to Xi JinPing, Le KeQiang etc)
 - OCT CHN & RUS jointly formed Universal Credit Rating Group
 - OCT SGP ends GST on gold 
 - SEP 6 CHN ann 'ready' to trade oil in CNY, RUS joins > PetroDollar impact
 - SEP 5 JPN 'buy' Senkaku islands from 'private owner'
 - SEP RUS-EU Nord Stream 2nd gas pipeline live (total 55 bcm/yr)
 - SEP EuroZone target date for banking regulatory union
 - SEP US Egan-Jones downgrade US from AA to AA-
 - SEP US FED purchase of $85B/mth bonds & MBS indefinitely ('QEternity') till 2015
           FED buys 90% of new T-Bonds > rate & Dollar manipulation
           > reduction of eligible collaterals in mkt > credit mkt contract > deflation?
 - JUL CHN JPN start trade settlement in Yuan/Yen
 - JUL Venzuela joins MERCOSUR
 - JUN US goes after Barclays (LIBOR fixing), HSBC (drug$ laundering),
           Standchart (Iran $laundering) in succession > UK MP: 'attack on City's agenda'
 - JUN HKSE buys LME
 - JUN Basel III upgrade gold to tier 1 capital by Jan 2013 (vs tier 3 @ 50% discount)
           Total tier 1 cap (4%) = US$4T; tier 1 cap to be raised to 6% by 2013
 - MAY Spain's Bankia asked for US$24B state help (after reporting $2B profit for Q1!)
 - MAY JP Morgan reported US$2B loss from 'hedges' & Europe related
            (reports: IRS related losses caused by spike in UST rates in Mar can be hundreds $B)
 - APR CHN announced plan to use SIBS for international Yuan payments
 - MAR Iran Oil Bourse starts trading oil in non-USD
 - MAR IND propose setup of New Development Bank (BRICS Development Bank)
 - FEB-MAY Iran selling $20-30B oil to China for Yuan; $12B to India for gold/INR
 - MAR IND RBI cut CRR by 75 bp (50bp in Jan)
 - MAR JPN allowed to buy CNY bonds; UK to prepare plans for 'Euro Collapse'
 - MAR Greece default sovereign bonds @ 74% haircut using retroactive CAC 
            > cut 107B from 350B debt (160% gdp) > ISDA $3.2B CDS triggered
 - FEB EU ECB rate cut & LTRO2 (EUR 550B)
             > credit squeeze vs liquidity pump > inflation
 - FEB CHN to setup USD 1B + 0.2B  CNY fund for LatAm infra & trade loans
 - FEB CHN reduced reserve requirement 50bp x 2 (Nov & Feb)
            > QE vs CNY internationalisation & reserve ccy status
 - FEB EU ann June stop import IRN oil; same day IND say buy using gold; Brent $120
 - FEB JPN closed 52/54 reactors (30% elec) for inspection > gas import +70%, oil 13%
 - JAN RUS WTO entry (application since 1993 held back by Georgia)
 - JAN Venezuela complete repatration of 160 ton gold from UK/US (started Nov 2011)
 - JAN EU (minus UK) New fiscal pact adopted: ESM, Tobin Tax
           > increased Euro fiscal integration, reduced bank fin speculation, UK out
           > unwind USD 8T US holdings by EU banks?

 - JPN savings Y5T vs debt issue Y33T (total Y900T); pension funds net sellers
 - JPN total financial asset $15T (global total 120-200T), GDP 5.9T, debt 235% gdp
 - JPN budget: interest @1%=18% budget; deficit=56%; JAN record trade deficit $19B
           > repatriation of FX > higher Yen > end of Yen Carry Trade?
           > Yen devaluation > support Yen carry?
           > price deflation in other asset classes incl. UST?
           > borrow overseas > all rates go up

 - proj IND silver consumption = 5k to ?
 - World oil production (90 mbpd) surplus = 0

2011
 - DEC BRA becomes 6th largest economy (displacing UK)
 - DEC CHN PAGE starts RMB spot gold trading in Yunnan
 - DEC ECB rate cut & start LTRO1 to EU banks (EUR 500B 3-yr @ 1%)
 - NOV RUS-EU Nord Stream gas pipeline 1 LIVE 30 bcm/yr
 - NOV Start of Syrian Civil War supported by Turkey, Qatar, Saudi, Israel
 - NOV EU ECB starts buying SPA & ITA bonds
             > defacto quantitative easing > inflation
 - NOV MF Global collapse (Greek debt leveraged 100x?, $1.5B customer$ lost to JPM);
             customers long silver but COMEX could not deliver > Silver suppression?
 - OCT GER rating co Feri downgraded US bonds fr AAA to AA
 - OCT HK Chinese Gold & Silver Society starts RMB gold trading
 - OCT China bot a lot of gold @ $1,585-1,605 (11Q4 or 12Q1 import exceed India)
 - SEP US,UK,CAN,JAP start swap lending to EU banks ($300 B) > prevent systemic collapse
 - SEP US FED: 'Operation Twist' ($400B) to push 10-yr Treasury yield to <2%
 - SEP CHN sign swap deals with 12 countries; allows RMB bond issue in HK
 - AUG Brent hit $85; CME lowered oil futures margin by 5% (after raising 4 times in 2011)
 - AUG S&P downgraded US credit rating (after new Indian CEO took over; 'left' soon after)
 - AUG Venezuela to repatriate 211t gold fr US/UK, move $10B USD/Euro reserves to BRICS
 - JUL-OCT Greek Crisis start, stock mkts @ yr low (S&P=1150; Brent=$100; Gold=$1800)
 - JUL Egan-Jones downgrade US rating from AAA to AA+
 - JUL Iran/Iraq/Syria gas pipeline plan announced (to deliver gas to Mediterranean)
           > threat to LNG export by Qatar & Exxon (Iran shares same gas field w Qatar)
 - MAY HKMEx opens with USD gold & silver futures deliverable in HK
 - MAY CME raised silver margins 5 times in 2 weeks!
 - MAY GER closed 7 nuclear stations (another 9 by 2021/22)
 - APR US 2nd ARM reset peak ($500B till 2012)  http://www.cotohousingblog.com/?p=9563
 - APR US Fed selling UST put options > keep UST price up & rates down
 - APR JPN earthquake: closed 4 Fukushima nuclear reactors
            Money base = 122T (vs 88T in 2008); G-7 buy Yen after surge to 76/USD
            > Yen repatriation vs devaluation > higher vs lower Yen > Yen carry trade?? 
 - MAR IMF 'suggest' add CNY to SDR currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY) if CNY 'free floating'
 - MAR NATO attacks Libya > Oct Gadaffi killed; 100t gold in London & $70B SWF?
              > Libya LIA sue SocGen, GS for fraud
 - JAN African Monetary Fund start; 2/3 funded by Libya (opposed by IMF/US since 2003)
 - JAN US FED announced rates will be kept low till end 2014 (Fed Fund rate = 0.25%)
            > high money supply & inflation

 - HK Y/Y Yuan growth: trade settlement 5x; Bond issue 3x; Deposits 90%
            > Yuan strength & internationalisation
 - CHN increased bank reserve requirements throughout year (reversed in 2012)
 - UK low fin regulation:  Lehman, AIG, Madoff, MF GLobal scams all done via UK

 - CHN Q4 gold purchase 191t > India 173t (world prod = 2.3kt; total stock=165kt)
 - CHN silver consumption 5-6k ton? India 1-2k ton? (world prod=21+7k ton, China 3+5k?)
 - World car pop 1B; US250m CHN80m+27% IND40m+10% BRA30m+15%
 - Oil consumption = 87 mbpd; CHN +2m; US/EU -2m (vs 08)

2010 
 - Money supply growth: CHN M2 17%, IND M3 15%
 - ETF size in US: 900 ETFs with assets = $890B
 - DEC Start of Arab Spring; Jan Tunisia; Feb Egypt
 - DEC JPM cuts silver short position
 - NOV RUS-CHN to stop using USD for bilateral trade; start direct Ruble-CNY trade
 - NOV Malaysia KLSE accept CNY as margin collateral
             > internationalisation of CNY, drop of USD/EUR
 - OCT CHN become 2nd largest economy (displacing Japan)
 - JUL World stock markets at lowest for yr (S&P=1050; Brent=$75; Gold=$1200)
 - JUN BP Gulf of Mexico deep sea oil spill with multiple uncontrollable leaks
            > halt to deep sea drill? > oil price up
 - APR-OCT 10Y UST fell fr 4% to 2.4% due to big IRS book expansion by US banks
           (Morgan Stanley alone added $8T) > rates manipulation
 - APR BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill start (70k-140k barrels/day vs 1k/day BP reported)
           > gulf stream 'dead', low flow to east Atlantic > cold west EU & drought Eurasia
 - APR Moody's downgrade Irish debt to junk ('Irish Debt Crisis')
 - MAR US Start of 1st ARM reset peak ($400B of $1T over 1 yr) based on 6-mth LIBOR
 - MAR US introduce FATCA > US citizens to report foreign assets by 2014

2009
  - World trade settlement using USD=70% (vs 90% before 2000 & Euro)
  - World debt $140T, CHN $7T, CB b/s $6T
  - UN change formula for GDP calculation > world GDP increased by 3.5%!

  - US 140 banks failures; FASB drops FAS157 on MTM for banks > no more mark-to-market!
  - NOV Central Asia-CHN gas pipeline LIVE 30-40 bcm/yr (1/2 China's needs?)
  - JUL Khazakhstan-CHN oil pipeline LIVE 200k bpd
  - JUN BRA nego with CHN & IND to end using USD for trade settlement
  - APR US FASB 'relaxes' fair-value or mark-to-market accounting rules to allow 'judgement'
            (US banks claim that MTM doesn't work 'when markets are inactive')
          > companies books may not be real anymore!
  - MAR Stock markets at lowest (S&P=700; Brent=$40; Gold=$950)
  - JAN CHN become 3rd largest economy (displacing Germany)
  - JAN Gulf GCC countries to setup regional currency by 2013-2020 (& end USD peg?)

2008
 - DEC-MAR CHN sign 3-yr ccy swaps w Argentina, Belarus, Malaysia, Indon, S Korea, HK
 - DEC CHN ann no CNY devalue & others should not; start regional CNY trade settlemnt
 - DEC CHN car output exceeds US (10m, 20m by 2012, 35m 2025); oil price=$90-130
 - DEC US Fed Fund rate lowest at 1%; Failures: 1,100 hedge funds 25 banks
 - NOV Goldman: sell gold @$845 > drop to $700 by Sep08 then straight to $1900 by Mar11
 - JUL Goldman: oil to reach $250 > collapse few days later to $40 by Dec08
 - JUL Oil price peak (S&P=900; Brent=$150; Gold=$990)
 - Bear Stearns issues CDOs & rated as 'most admired bank'

2007 
 - World OTC derivs = $500T, IRS 300T, CDS 45T (vs GDP 65T, fin assets 120T)
 - US Monetary base=$800B, GDP $14T
 - Silver: CHN became net importer
 - DEC Iran stops selling oil in USD
 - OCT Stock markets peak (S&P=1550; Brent=$90; Gold=$780)
 - US Start of 'Subprime Crisis'; US mortgage debt $5T; Failures: 49 hedge funds, 3 banks
          > EU banks & foreign buyers of CLOs lost big
          > UK: Run on Northern Rock  when??
            http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/03/great-recession-of-2008.html

2006
 - RUS & Kazakhstan setup Eurasian Development Bank
 - World current a/c: net negative; US&UK 90% of all with -ve (=2% world $60T GDP)
           > US/UK sovereign debt crisis
 - Venezuela nationalise oil fr Exxon & Conoco-Philips; start oil trade in non-USD??
 - AUG Gas shock drop 20% (Amaranth held 60% Sept futures) ????
 - JUL US Fed Fund rate peak at 6.75%
 - APR 1st Silver ETF (i-Share SLV); US stop publish US M3 money supply figures
 - FEB Syria switched all foreign reserves into Euro; Iran when?
 - JAN US Alan Greenspan retire; US Housing Bubble peak (mortgage debt $5T)
            > getting out before end-game: Dollar Bluff & housing bubble cannot be sustained

2005
  - World oil demand 82m bbl/day: DM 41, rest 41m
  - Peak Oil production (30 B barrels/yr) reached; oil price = $50
  - Asian Monetary Fund (was opposed by IMF & US in 1998)
  - NOV Dubai Gold & Commodity Exch start gold futures (silver Mar06, oil May07)
  - SEP UK stopped publication of UK M0 money supply figures

2004
  - JPN buys $500B US Treasuries < After 2002 S&P downgrade??

2003
 - First Gold ETF in American Stock Exch (GLD Nov04; UGL Nov 08)
 - JUL CHN announce switch part of USD reserves into Euro & liberalisation of gold market
 - MAR US attacks Iraq (despite objection fr Japan, Germany & France)

2002
 - World car population = 600m; oil price = $25
 - NOV US Fed Fund rate lowest at 3/4%!
 - OCT Shanghai Gold Exchange start spot gold trading
 - JUL Stock markets lowest since Dot.Com Bubble burst (S&P=810; Brent=$25; Gold=$320)
           Bankrupt: WorldCom, GlobalCrossing, Enron....
 - S&P downgrade JPN

2001
 - Naked short sell of stocks, UST etc. jumps after end of Gold Carry/Leasing
 - Peak Gold production (2,600 ton/yr) reached; Total world holding = 165k tons
 - Swiss National Bank start sell gold reserves (sold 50% by 2011 @ $350)
 - NOV CHN WTO entry (after 12 yr negotiation)
 - OCT US Enron collapse (bank trans disallowed by Glass-Steagall helped hide debts)
 - OCT US attacks Afghanistan
 - SEP Post 9/11 > Arabs withdraw USD $B investments for fear of US seizure
 - FED start rate cuts; US debt 340% GDP

2000
 - NOV Iraq stops selling oil in USD (wants Euro instead)
 - MAY US Fed Fund rate peak at 6%
 - MAR US Peak of Dot.Com Bubble (S&P=1400; Brent=$28; Gold=$300; US debt $5.5T)
 - Gold Dinar: Libya hold 2nd conference with African & Muslim countries (1st in 1986)

1990-2000 
 - 1999 EU Start of Euro (full use in 2002) > jump in EU debt & consumption (bubble)
 - 1999 NOV US Glass-Steagall Act (1933) repealed (but unwind started during Reagan yrs)
 - 1999 SEP Washington Agreement on Gold sale; IMF abandon 150-300t sale proposal
 - 1999 MAR US Congress reject CFTC proposals to regulate OTC derivatives market
          http://economics.arawakcity.org/node/318 (folly of derivs market de-regulation)
 - 1999 US Glass-Steagall Act (separating banking and investment biz) finally repealed
 - 1998 Nov US Fed Fund rate lowest at 4.5%
 - 1998 Basel II committee setup to improve on 'crude rules' of Basel I by 2007
             Allow 'internal rating based' calc of capital requirement! > free up money printing!
 - 1998 RUS bond default > flight to safety e.g. dump Jap/EU bonds for UST
            > 100x increase in VaR correlation > LTCM lost 90% asset (leverage 100-200x)
            > US FED organise bailout by banks ('private initiative')
 - 1997 JUL Asian Fin Crisis start w THB collapse; top 4 ASEAN foreign debt/GDP=170%
 - 1996 US FED says Dot.Com Bubble driven by 'irrational exuberance' > US money base?
 - 1995-2007 Global FX reserves grew sharply (11%/yr)
 - 1994-5 US Fed raise rates; US Fed Fund rate peak at 5.25% > 1994 Tequila Crisis
 - 1993 EU formed - Maastricht Treaty; Basel I rules go into effective
 - 1993 Emerging Mkts bond explosion due to world flushed w liquidity
 - 1992 JUL US Fed Fund rate lowest at 3%
 - 1990-2001 Banks use 'Gold Carry/Lease' to make money (& support USD, EMU/Euro?)
                      Belgium (Anglo-Saxon poodle) sold 70% of gold (1,000 tons)
       - 1997 Swiss proposal to sell 1,300 of 2,600t 'excess' gold reserve
       - 1999 MAY-2002 UK sold 400t @ $275 to buy Euro ('Brown's Bottom'; gold 20 yr low)
 - 1990-92 UK enter & leave ERM after GBP 3.3 B loss
 - 1991 DEC US Fed Fund rate peak at 6%
 - 1990-91 Economic Recession
 - 1991 South America MERCOSUR group founded (common currency 'Gaucho' planned)
 - 1991 Collapse of USSR > State asset grabs by oligarchs esp 1995-96
 - 1990-91 Iraq invaded Kuwait (to pay off debts from Iran war?) & invaded in turn by NATO

1946- 1990
 - 1990 Oil $?; US debt $2.8T
 - 1989 US attack Panama (to cancel Carter's agreed return of Panama Canal)
 - 1989 Washington Consensus to 'tackle Latin Am' economic problems
            > cause of later crises in Latin Am, Asian Fin Crisis?
 - 1989-90 Recession
 - 1989 FEB US Fed Fund rate peak at 7%
 - 1988 Basel Accord (Basel I) on 'common rules' for bank capital by 1993
             Capital requirement 8% (vs Japan banks which loaned lots of $ w/o capital limit)
             Sovereign Loan Risk Wt: 0% for home, 20% for OECD vs 100% for non-OECD
 - 1987 OCT World stock crash, Black Monday ($printing fr Plaza Accord > USD Carry?)
 - 1985 SEP Plaza Accord to devalue USD vs Yen & DMark
 - 1985 MAR-1990 US Savings & Loans Crisis, Junk Bond Crisis
 - 1982 Malaysia ends Ringgit peg to Sing$, Brunei$ (money printing)
 - 1981 US Reagan cut tax but start to double debt & print money
 - 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War (oil impact?) - resulted in $80B Iraqi debt, Iran?
 - 1980-82 Global recession
            > father work for half-pay till 1986, Tong Fatt never paid $ owed
 - 1980 Sep Gold stocks peak
 - 1980 Jan Commodity, interest rate peak: Oil US$50/barrel; US debt $0.9T; Gold $850?
 - 1979 Jan Iran Revolution ended (oil impact) > 2nd Oil Crisis
 - 1979-89 RUS attack Afghanistan
 - 1979-81 US Volcker raised Fed Funds rate fr 10% to 20% to fight inflation;
 - 1979 European Community (except UK): EMS & ERM, ECU introduced?
 - 1976-2012 US Increase net purchaser of foreign assets but <foreign purchase of US assets
 - 1976-2012 US current a/c always negative, offset by EMkts (EU quite balanced)
             http://www.nber.org/papers/w17877.pdf
 - 1976 UK IMF assistance
 - 1974 US citizens allowed to own gold (not allowed since 1962 Kennedy? or 1933?)
 - 1974 G-10 Basel Committee Banking Supervision under BIS (after Herstatt Bank failure)
 - 1973-75 Economic Recession
 - 1973 Oil Crisis (oil $3 to $12), Yom Kippur War > Start of PetroDollar System
 - 1973 US end military involvement in Vietnam War (South Vietnam govt collapsed in 1975)
 - 1971 Malaysia formulate New Economic Policy, NEP (favouring bumiputras)
 - 1971 Nixon Shock: end Bretton Woods & USD peg to gold at $35/oz (lost 1/2 gold stock)
            "It's our currency and your problem," U.S. Treasury Secretary John Connally
 - 1970 Oil US$1.70/barrel; US debt $0.4T
 - 1969 Racial riots in Malaysia (May 13)
 - 1965 Singapore separates from Malaysia
 - 1965 Giscard D'Estaing USD 'exorbitant privilege' > 1968 France pulls out of Gold Pool
            > 1969 IMF SDR introduced > 1974 SDR include DEM,FFR,GBP,JPY
 - 1964 US forbids Silver redemption of US Dollar
 - 1963 Malaysia formed between Malaya, Singapore, Sabah & Sarawak
 - 1962 Great Garbage Market: US start large scale IPOs
 - 1961 London Gold Pool by western central banks to keep gold price at USD35/oz
 - 1961 US Kennedy's Operation Twist flatten rates to stimulate econ (sold ST & bot LT)
 - 1960 OPEC formed in response to Seven Sisters pressure to drop price fr $2.90/barrel
 - 1956 UK, FRA, Israel attack Egypt for nationalising Suez Canal (UK control till 1968)
 - 1951 US Start of balance of payment deficit
 - 1950-53 Korean War

Before 1945
 - 1947 Oct GATT signed; 1951 study found only 7/43 nations have lower tariffs than US' 5%
 - 1944 Jul Bretton Woods established 'USD standard' (Jun Normandy landing)
 - 1937-45 World War II
 - 1934 US Gold Reserve Act: USD 20 to 35/oz, Exchange Stabilisation Fund & gold control
 - 1933 US Banking Act (Glass-Steagall Act) to separate commercial and investment banking
 - 1933 US 2nd dip due to gold re-peg limit money supply (elsewhere world not affected)
 - 1930 US Tariff Act > countries retaliate, world trade slump > US export/import fell 60%
 - 1929 Start of Great Depression
 - 1920 Roaring Twenties: Germany cheap sale & monetary expansion caused bubble
 - 1920-23 German print to pay reparations > Mark collapse, stocks up 50 billion times!
 - 1920 US Crash and then boomed (known as the Roaring 20s)
 - 1915-18 US FED balance sheet grew by more than 8 times! ($637m to $5.2b)
             > cause of Roaring 20s and Great Depression later
 - 1914-18 World War I > 1917 Balfour Declaration
 - 1913 Federal Reserve Act > creation of US Fed
 - 1907 US Panic of 1907 (8 recessions between 1890-1914)??

Before 1900
 - 1881-1914 Scramble for Africa
 - 1870-95 US,EUR Long Recession; Germany bailout Ottoman; Silver demonetized by who?
 - 1870 US Congress (Stanford) propose Chinese Exclusion Act; CAN, AUS follow
 - 1862-69 US Trans-continental Railroad (Stanford use Chinese); CAN Grand Trunk Railway
 - 1848-55 California Gold Rush; 1851 Australian Gold Rush start
 - 1839-42 1st Opium War; 1856-60 2nd Opium War
 - 1824 UK and Holland agrees to divide Indonesia/Malaysia & Jakarta for Malacca
 - 1812 War of 1812 (US vs UK, Canada, natives)
 - 1803-15 Napoleonic Wars > End of Holy Roman Empire > Formation of Germany & Italy
                  > 1812 Napoleon reparation; 1871 France reparations?
 - 1792-1802 French Revolutionary Wars
 - 1792 FRA Collapse of Assignats backed by confiscated church props
 - 1789-99 FRA French Revolution
 - 1776 US Independence
 - 1720 FRA Missisipi Bubble burst; UK South Sea Bubble burst
 - 1637 EUR Peak of Tulip Mania
 - 1619-22 EUR 'Tipper and See Saw Time' coin debasemt by warring states, 30 Yrs War
 - 1602-1800 Dutch East India Co aka VOC 1st co to issue stocks; 18% div for 200 yrs!
 - 1600-1874 British East India Company granted Royal Charter (monopoly)
 - 1589 Counter Armada
 - 1588 Spanish Armada to end British 'privateering' & involvement in Spanish Netherlands
             Pope Sixtus V support it as crusade
 - 1494 Treaty of Tordesillas, 1529 Treaty of Zaragosa divide world betw Spain & Portugal
             (to resolve Aeterni Regis after Spain's Columbus 'discovery' of America)
 - 1481 Papal bull AEterni Regis grant all lands south of Canary Islands to Portugal
             (after Portugal's 'discovery' of Africa and East Indies)
 - Dutch financiers & miners e.g. Fuggers financed Portugal's foreign expeditions???
 - 1300s Spread of Islam to Indonesia & Malaysia

Background
In the late 1990s, I attended a JP Morgan course conducted by an American professor who during his summer breaks was contracted by JPM to ground the globe to conduct a course on the topic known as 'Macro Economic Linkages'. According to him, if one understands how an event in one market or a part of the world will affect other markets in other parts of the world, one can move ahead of others and profit from it.

At about the same time, Lee Kuan Yew spoke about the importance of leaders with 'helicopter view' in his memoir.

The 'science' of weather forecast only became possible after the advent of satellites which allowed weathermen to see the wind and cloud patterns at the global level. Their 'predictions' come from satellite pictures of clouds. 

Similarly, to be able to predict what may be happening in the future economy one needs a 'helicopter view'. That means knowing about the history of world economics and major economic developments of the world and what they may mean (highlighted in red above).

Bastard More Than 5 Times Over

9/216 10.30 am (CNY 2nd Day and 2 days after mom's funeral)

Just joined group at usual prata stall and asked why not try new prata shop that just opened a few doors away. Jokingly said that was difference between 80% and 20% type. CPQ said they are the 20%. Told her that if a simpleton like her is 20% type the world would be in big trouble!

Then handed my Tab S to Tian to read writeup on mom's death and and said the others could not be able to come up with it. Immediately, there were sniggers from TYL's and Tian's fathers. CPS said laughingly 'he spent whole night writing that so better read' (smart alecs)

So reminded Tian about Schopenhofer's quote and to be very careful with people that spend most if their time hee-hee-ha-ha-ing with/at others. Didn't tell her that in fact, smiling bastards who always appear to be nice and smiling to you are the most dangerous bastards because simpletons around them will never suspect them if they do anything bad or nasty and think they are the nicest people around!

I spent time finding out what happened and put my thoughts down for kids to learn and those jokers laughed at it. So reminded Tian about Mark Twain's quote on ingrates.

If you feed a hungry dog and make it prosperous, it will not bite you. That is the principal difference between a dog and man - Mark Twain

Said above reminders apply in all situations - at home, school, work and between countries. Saw Tian sneaking a peek at her father.

Tian's father stood up abruptly and said let's go. Then turned, pointed finger at me as if to say something but didn't and walked off. (I obviously hit some raw nerve there but could not finger which of the 2 reminders that irked him but he must have thought what I said was directed against or applied to him. It is called getting the point)

The rest followed except TYL's father TKM who came over to sit next to me. He put his hand round my shoulder (in 'nice guy manner') and asked why I have to go through so much suffering and pain. Asked how he know I was suffering and in pain. I was only repeating to kids some important life lessons I had been telling them (because what happened above were real life examples of those lessons!) So repeated asking why he thought I was in pain.

He could not answer and then changed tack to say it's the way I said them. I asked if he didn't like the way I said or what I said. He kept quiet so told him to be upfront with what he really wanted to say. Again, hesitated. So told him that his wife told me a few years back that she didn't want me to teach their daughter and if that was what he wanted to tell me. He said yes.

So told him that he was a lying bastard. Pretended to be nice to me, beat around the bush for so long and when I finally cornered him offered the truth. Told him the be a man. CPS who was watching the exchange all the while quickly intervened and pulled him away.

I thought that was quick action - just when I got the thief red handed and about to find out more, out pops a helpful nice bugger! (this was to repeat a few times later on)

They walked home together talking.

When I reached home, I started packing my stuffs to leave (wanted to go to Palladium to check place out and leave for JB before 3pm to avoid CNY jam on PLUS highway). Then found engine oil spilled in boot so spent next half hour or so cleaning up. All the while TKM was sitting in couch next to main door.

About 12 noon. After done cleaning up boot and locking outside gate to leave, he called out to me to say he wanted to talk to me. Asked him what about and not to beat around the bush like earlier because I cannot stand bastards like that. He said about my parents. So asked what about my parents.

He asked why I insulted my parents. To be sure I heard correctly I asked him if he asked why I insulted my parents. Yes. I asked how he came to conclude that I insulted my parents and he better have good answer for me. He frozed for some time so I repeated my earlier point to him not to beat around the bush, be a man and tell me straight.

He told me he was thinking and not to interrupt him.

After a while, instead of giving me reason why he said I insulted my parents, he said 'but you scolded them!' Told him I admit I scolded many mom many times before but each time I have good reason but scolding is not same as insult! Asked him if he scolded his mother before. He kept quiet.

(I cannot remember scolding my dad in the last 20 years of his life. But he was different from mom who would not interject/interrupt others before they can finish speaking. Her brothers were the same! Like the smart alecs I warn kids about, they 'chay' others very quickly. I realized that long ago.

When we were young, parents would get into arguments all the time and the kids would end up on mom's side because she was quite manipulative - she cries like the end of the world, say would take her own life etc - to get the our sympathy. We being kids then would 'buy' it and get to her side! I now know how dad would have felt then.

By university time I realized that dad was a very sharp man and a gentleman. Many things he said to me when younger I realized were very sharp or true. Over the years he indirectly also taught we one thing about gratefulness.

On trips back to Taiping over the years, he would bring me to go look for an old man whom he kept telling me was a gentleman. Initially I was too young to understand but years later I got it. When his dad died and my dad was too young and helpless, that man helped his family with all funeral arrangements and took dad 'under his wings'. So decades later whenever we went to Taiping dad would look him up and ask him out for meal and drinks but dad said that old man would refuse his offer to pay. Dad meant to say that he was grateful to that man for what he did for him when young and all dad wanted to do was to repay that gratitude a bit but that old man refused to accept even a drink! Thus a gentleman in dad's eyes.

Mom was different. After uni, I realized she was a simpleton that throws out whatever came to mind whenever she loses an argument or could not provide a good answer! (diversion, inversion). The last decade or so, I kept telling her not to do that, that was why she kept arguing with dad when we were young and her old trick would not work with me anymore because I had seen through her. Mom would still not get what I said and continue with her standard formula: try to divert or invert, if fail cry and accuse me of scolding her! Which would not get any sympathy from me. Instead, I would keep telling her that she was deploying her standard trick again but she would still not get it.

That's the problem and danger with such people - not aware of their own behavior despite being repeatedly told of it by others. Repeat and repeat but smart alec still thinks she was right and thus not just ignore what I tried to tell her but would turn it around and throw anything she could think of.

Her brothers were the same! They are always quick to interrupt others, 'chay' what others say, contradict or throw smart alec comments before others could even complete their sentences. I observed it so many times that I have concluded it was genetic and those old smart alecs would never change.)

By then TKM's baseless accusation had gotten to me. Then told him that he is a bastard because he accused me of insulting my parents but could not explain how, when etc. All he could do was accuse me of insulting my parents because I scolded them. I don't accuse him of insulting his parents because he scolded them but he was bastard enough to do that to me!

Now he is a worse bastard than I thought an hour earlier at prata stall. Bastard 2 times over!

Told him that I have long established he and the others are simpleton 80% types I tell the kids to be wary off - people who would jump to wrong conclusions and therefore screw things up but still full of themselves. I was willing to sit down with him only because he asked me for a talk and I gave him the benefit of doubt because he was not around in Malaysia to know what happened over the years but he just proved what I know to be his character already.

He just broke into loud laughter! So told him I don't laugh at what he says, not even his baseless accusation, and he was laughing because I was spot on - it was the truth and as Schopenhofer observed all truths are firstly ridiculed (laughed at).

CPS who was quietly sitting nearby listening to whole exchange started interjecting with some comment about facing up to reality and I told her not to interrupt the discussion. But she continued and I just ignored her.

I then asked him if he has anything else to talk about. He said yes so told him to be careful with what he says. This time he was more careful and, instead of accusing me, asked if I blamed my divorce on parents. I said no and asked why did he think so. Again, no answer which again pissed me off. He came up with another thing which he could not offer basis again! Bastard. (I suspect he realised that already but still went ahead and asked because it was not really his idea but some one planted for him and he was just 'caught holding the ball'. The question is who is the real devil).

Again, CPS kept interjecting with some comments about me afraid to face reality which irked me. So told her to buzz off as I was talking to another person not her. Fucking rude!

Then he asked if divorce affected me. Of course, I said (only an idiot would think otherwise or see need to ask). In what way he asked. Told him after that I woke up, was no more a simple happy go luck fella and would take action if I see a problem.

CPS again interjected and asked how I define a problem and success etc. Told that idiot not to interrupt again but she kept on repeating her various comments.

So I looked at TKM and told him that he held me back because he wanted to ask me things and I was nice enough to oblige but that idiot keeps interrupting the conversation. So is he going to do something about it? That bastard just grinned and said no.

Knowing that on top of that, his thoughts were probably messed up by then. So tried to help him justify why he should not sit on his hands with below:

"You invited me to talk to you and I obliged. When I interrupted you, you asked me not to interrupt. You set a house rule which I obliged. Now, I have an idiot that keeps interrupting me as I am speaking to you and I expect you to have the decency to help me out but instead you tell me you are not going to do anything about it? Come on, be a man!"

Bugger still insist he won't do anything. (I suspect he could not think clearly by then and CPS interruption was a relief to the embarrassing situation he found himself in. Thus he didn't find it disruptive but life saving instead!)

I said OK then and asked if he still have anything else. He said yes so told him that I have by then established that he is a bastard 3 times over and he better not fuck around with me anymore. By then he was really dumbfounded and just sat there and stared at me. (I suspect his thinking was by then in a mess because whatever he threw at me didn't stick and his collection of bastard X times over points were building up)

So I asked how he can say he has more to ask me but does not have next question ready at hand! How can one call for a meeting but cannot remember agenda? If one has a big enough problem with his car he should be able to tell the mechanic straight away!

I meant to say if he thought I have a major problem he should be able to articulate it immediately. So he was obviously just trying to come up with something to stick on me (inversion is typical 80% type trick - if 2 cannot stick, try others!) and save his face.

He kept telling me not to interrupt him as he was thinking. So I kept quiet and waited.

Minutes passed and I was stupefied. Told him that that was not how real world meetings work. If he makes others wait so long in meeting while he thinks about it, in real world he would get fucked well and good! No wonder he needs to go for meditation! No need to think!

In meantime, CPS continued bombarding me with her challenges (cannot face reality, how I define problem and success etc. Told her to better stop before I slap her for being so fucking rude.

Repeated the above "you invited me to talk to you, you set house rule of no interruption, now someone else interrupting me... are you man enough to do something" question. Again, no with grin.

Almost 20 minutes later, he finally started on his next 'inquisition' item and asked if I remembered dad's funeral when I told him about my cousin's daughter's family problem (around 2010/2011). I told him that that has nothing to do with what I thought was his agenda which was my problems with my parents. Anyway, since I spoke to CPS and CPM at mom's wake 2 days ago about it, they know the details and he can go ask them and not waste my time.

Don't try to fish around, I told him (he obviously had the topic in mind already except that he needed that 20 minutes to figure out how to stick a knife into me and make it stick)

He insisted that it has to do with me. So asked him in what way. He said I was 'complaining' about other people's family and somehow bring my 'pain' to and bothered that family meaning at the least probably I should not have gotten involved or, worse, I was trying to stir up trouble. Again, that smart alec observation irked me. Since I was not interested in 'arguing' over things with one I already established to be a bastard, I didn't get to clarify which was it and just assumed he meant I was being a busy body. But even that attitude is signature 80% type - why bother about other people? go mountain and meditate!

So told him that that's how 80% type people like him look at the world but that is not how I look at it. If I can see something wrong ahead of time, I take immediate action like the 'invisible string' problem I spotted years ago with her daughter. Asked if he knew of that invisible string, he said no.

In my cousin's case, I could see what was coming, warned 3 different members of that family and told them what to do otherwise that family would be destroyed. Now 5 years later, CPS told me 2 days ago what I feared then would happen. I could do that but 80% type like him will not understand it so don't waste my time.

[2 days ago CPS said could not contact that cousin and when she and mom met him last year he said something about daughter selling their apartment and CPS thinks her marriage was breaking up. I told her I already saw that coming 5 years ago!

Once in Singapore, spoke to taxi driver about water dispute between Malaysia and Singapore, Singapore government was being bastard by refusing to raise rates per Malaysia's request and Singaporeans should do what's right and not keep quiet. Taxi driver asked why I bothered. Told him if he tell me why bother when his daughter is being raped then I say he 'liao de qi'. Bugger kept quiet after that]

I stood up to leave but he said he was not done yet. Told him I cannot have open-ended session with him. He need to set an end time. He said 3.30pm. I said OK, next.

He asked how about the house renovation. I said I already told mom a year ago that I won't have anything to do with it! Told him about being told my parents don't need to depend on me, have money where got 'liao bu qi', many incidents of inaction and lame excuses etc. that nothing will be done. In fact, told mom that until day she dies nothing will be done! (Bastard raise issue with me after knowing I had issue with those idiots for so many years and after mom is dead! Bastard)

Said I offered to pay for renovation long time ago but CPY has all sorts of excuse not to do anything, not even look at the many plans I drew up over more than 10 years. He then told me what CPS (smart alec) told me last year: since you paying for it, why don't you handle everything?

Told him of course I can and gave him this analogy: If I offer to give your mother a treat, you can tell me why not feed her and later wipe her arse too. Why cannot? Can...

I then asked 'by your thinking, since I offered to pay for reno but did not handle everything then I was a bastard right?" Suspecting a trap, he kept quiet. So told him that the answer was either yes or no, so be a man and tell me if I was a bastard. After repeating that challenge a few times he finally said yes! (bastard could not even make simple decision nor see what was coming)

I said well then we established that one is a bastard if one only offered to pay but not handle everything. Now let me ask you this: did you and wife offer to pay anything at all? Quiet. So now I establish that you are a greater bastard than me, right?

Continued with the analogy above to him (he obviously could not get it earlier): If I offer to treat your mother to a meal and you ask me to feed her and later wipe her arse, I'd slap you! You bastard 4 times over!

CPS realized I was also scolding her as well because she told me the same thing last year and her rude interruption got much louder (also she got more brazen because no one did anything all the while). By then, she was standing in between me and TYL's father and gesturing all over. So I got up and gave her a slap. TKM got up and put me in a strangle hold! I was surprised somewhat by that (bastard said nothing to do with him earlier but now when I finally took action it then he gets involved!) but quickly realized what was happening. So after he released the stranglehold, I told him that I have a point to make to him.

He knew full well that CPS rude interruptions were getting louder and louder and more and more to the face, he could see she was not heeding my telling her off and sooner or later I would take action as I said but he refused to help out and waited for me to act. Then he come out and act 'hero' by strangle holding me.

He knew full well how it would end and yet refused to intervene until it was too late. So told him he was a fucking bastard 5 times over!

Then asked if he has anything else to ask on my family. No. I said in that case since we established that he had no basis for saying I insulted my parents, blamed divorce on them etc. he should do the decent thing and help sort it out with whoever else were saying those things. He said no, why should he!

So I thought what a fucking bastard. Bastard more than 5 times over! Stood up to leave.

But he said not 3.15pm yet and he was not done yet (bastard expect me to keep my agreement and decency after all that shit).

His next issue was what I thought about 1MDB! Told him it has nothing to do with discussion and if he asked because he thought I could not do anything about it since I said I would do something if I see something is not right. He said yes. So to him it is just plunder, there are things I can do indirectly and gave him Louis Armstrong's quote - If you have to ask, you aint ever gonna know.

(Bastard who just told me why I bothered to get involved with my cousin's family and does not deem it necessary to get involved with CPS rude interruptions suddenly got interested with 1MDB which had nothing to do with my family, his nor the purpose of the talk! Fucker cannot even apply his own freakin principle on himself within span of a couple of hours!)

With no more to talk about me and my family he told me he has something to tell me.

Said he scolded his mother in front of his friends when she cried in front of them during an outing in Australia. Said he regretted it and started sobbing. I asked him what he expect me to do? He said he just wanted me to hear him out.

Fucking bastard not man enough to even do the decent thing on all those shit now wanted me to do nothing and hear him out!

Asked him why he scolded her and why she cried, he didn't answer the latter. Only he said felt she embarrassed him in front of friends and did not appreciate his effort arranging outing. Not sure what his purpose was, I told him I was not going to say he insulted his mother because he scolded her even though he said I insulted mine because I scolded them. He repeated he wanted me to hear him out only (may be he felt guilty accusing me of insulting my parents earlier and wanted to admit he also scolded his mom)

Then told me about his stay with his grandma when young and being used as leverage against his father by her etc. Sobbed most of the way.

At  3.40pm I said times up, I could not do anything about his personal story and walked off.

Almost 4 hours but it was good that he talked to me. All the while I thought those bastards were just saying I was a mad bugger always scolding people including my parents but now I know it was worse than that. Those bastards were worse devils than I thought.

Given that TKM froze and took so long to articulate his thoughts it is very likely he was not the originator of those accusations. He was only the one trying or offered to stick it to me openly. The question is who is/are the lead bastard(s)...

My suspicion: top lead is the bitch that was listening in the background and kept interrupting me whenever I try to nail TKM with a new 'bastard-point'. As I have been telling the kids, that's what thieves do when they are about to be caught - divert and invert.

So who is the REAL more-than-5-times-over bastard?


In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing. The worst thing you can do is nothing. - Theodore Roosevelt

Right is right even if no one is doing it; wrong is wrong even if everyone is doing it - Augustine of Hippo

In Memory of Mom

27/1/16 WED
Planning to return to KL early next week. So went to buy new 4G LTE modem from U Mobile as had been planning to pass old 3G modem to 5th uncle over CNY. Had been suggesting to them last year to get a dataline so can have more to do to pass time but suspect they wld not have done so.

1/2/16 MON
Had slow speed problem with new 4G LTE modem since day 1. Fast sometimes and for short while but would hang later. Eliminated 4G network itself since my phone also on U Mobile was fast.

Spent previous few days sorting out slowness problem with U Mobile which changed sim card, asked me to reset modem, told me i didnt settle my bill (just bought!), wait cos high traffic etc. Went modem manufacturer ZTE service centre which claimed modem OK.

2/2/16 TUE
U Mobile tech support finally asked me to connect using usb (i.e. not using wifi) to my pc. Loading was very fast - within 2-3 secnds. U Mobile say that prove their line ok and asked me go back and check modem with ZTE. Agree with them but suspect initially due to priority setting by U Mobile which they fixed (i asked and the service staff confirmed 018 dataline numbers have different priority from phones using 011 range)

3/2/16 WED
Explained to ZTE why sure modem problem per above. They tested on wifi and usb and agreed but said new modem takes a week to arrive from KL. Asked them if can exchange in KL since planning to leave for KL thur or fri but cannot confirm. So told them I wld collect after CNY and went rented house to collect some stuffs.

On way back 4pm mom called to ask when returning cos she wanted to cook soup for me. Told her Friday.

4/2/16 THU
10AM ZTE called to say modem arrived and can collect now. Went to collect and get tool box with allen wrenches needed to re-install writing table from rented house.

8-9PM just installed writing table in mom's room and placed sewing machine on top (thought wld make it convenient for her do sewing) when Tian called to say mom fell and unconscious in KL hospital but could not give more details.

5/2/16 FRI
9-10AM CPY then CPM called to asked where i was. Told them Muar then Nilai.
10.30AM dropped things offf at home and to see condition of house. Saw stain on sofa.

11AM arrived Ampang Hospital Ward 6C. Mom just passed. Touched her and body still warm. Her eyes slightly open so stroke them close.

CPS say blood burst in brain but dont know what actually happened cos mom was alone and already collapsed on sofa with phone on hand when found by CPY 7+PM when she returned from work (very early as normally 10+PM! Same comment later by neighbour Mrs Gan to me). CPS say Mrs Gan said mom was chatting with her  around 5PM and may be mom fell as small depresssion on head. Say everyone must go one day, mom dreamt about dad etc so she expecting mom to go anytime! (No wonder no need to find out more about her condition)

Mrs Gan doctor son Ah Kuan came to ward and said record say blood pressure 178 i.e. stage 3 which is very high, massive brain haemorrhage and stroke. Say hypertension most likely cause. Told him that mom used to have high bllod pressure but few months back she said doctor (government clinic at Kampung Pandan) said can stop medicine because pressure OK. Kuan said some medicine cannot stop which was new to me!

Spoke to ward doctor issuing papers on mom body release from ward. CAT scan showed massive haemorrhage n stroke, no fracture in skull so trauma unlikely. If stop medicine must monitor and asked if mom had been doing that. I said i dont know. He said neurosurgeons decided not to operate due to mom's age and extent of her condition.

1PM at home. Mrs Gan came over and said mom was fine when talking to her at 5PM last evening. Mom told her i comjng back fri and CPS ? day (Mrs Gan cld not remember) and mom cooking soup for us. After i told her cause likely because mom stopped taking medicine, she said she told mom that!

2PM Neighbour from no 10 house came to ask where wake will be at and said high blood medicine cannot stop!

Asked CPM and CPS if they knew and they shook heads. So every neighbour knew but not us in family!

2PM Called 2nd aunt with skin cancer to inform her. Since by then I suspect mom (or others in family) must have ignored others info that high blood medicine cannot stop and didnt 'clicked', i started by asking her abt her skin and if she consumed the anti cancer leaves from plant mom and i planted at her home a few months back. She could not even remember we did that which confirmed my point. They just took things for granted and that's on things others did for their own good out of kindness and concern for them!

3.30PM Took pics of dining table where mom was sewing her shirt, prayer table with fresh grapefruit (from our garden) mom placed, carporch with bedsheet mom washed and hung to dry, stained sofa where mom collapsed with phone in hand (CPM said mom shitted and vomitted there and gasping for air)

ISSSUE 1
No one in family REALLY bothered to find out about high blood pressure to know that medicine cannot stop taking, or if aware did not bother to link info to mom and make sure she continued taking! How could it be that so many people knew but none in our family did (during wake, every one I spoke to said same - cannot stop!

No one REALLY cared despite some telling me that parents do not need to deoend on me (see history).

Lessons:
Talk is cheap, watch their actions and results.
Nice words and good intentions are of no use if no knowledge
Everyone's problem is no one's problem
So never rely on others (not even close friends and family) to do things or watch out for you. Self help.
ALWAYS do own research on any big issue or problem one faces. Do not take other people's (esp the 80% type) words as truth or correct.

Above self reliance point is one reason why few years back I told TYL about her 'invisible string' problem and told her to take steps herself to be independent because I can see her mom would not do that for her or until much later (because she was the one that tied the string!). And why on 8/2/16 night after moms funeral, roti prata dinner when all were talking about Tian's consolation prize essay on her mom not letting her go to her grandpa's house I told Tian that some year back I told her mom to let her go out to play basketball etc as that would strengthen character and make her independent. I then turned to TYL and asked if she remembered what I told her years ago she burst into tears.

(I  think I know why Tian's mom didn't let her go to her grandpa's house - see Woman Everyone Call Mad http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.my/2012/09/woman-everyone-call-mad.html)

9/2/16 On way to airport with CWL I asked if she knew why TYL cried, she said because she know I was right all those years back. Told CWL that i did that because I wanted TYL and them kids to start on the right journey in life early.

I have established long ago that the girls are quite sharp but not their parents who (like the 80% types I keep stressing) cannot see many things or are uninitiated on many matters or worse know but hide from them. So I had decided that I have to take steps directly to help put them on strong foundation for their future even if I end up being the bad guy. I don't live my life based on what others think of me but on what I think is right.

Even if you are a minority of one, the truth is still the truth. Many people especially the ignorant ones want to punish you for speaking the truth, for being correct or for being years ahead of your time. If you are right and you know it, speak your mind - Mahatma Gandhi

All truths go through 3 stages. First, they are ridiculed. Then violently opposed. Finally they are taken as self evident - Arthur Schopenhofer

Gandhi and Schopenhofer are talking about the same thing i have been trying to convey to kids. The 80% type will laugh or oppose you (whatever way they can) but when most people finally realise and accept something as truth those bastards would just say 'chay, I know already' - self evident...

2012 after dad's funeral I explained to kids that all those rituals were okay but they should not follow any religion and their teachings blindly, and not take for granted that anyone with religious authority or working for it is by default good. In fact, many use religions to control and take advantage of others. CPQ heard that and interjected that not all religious people are bad (which was not my point) and many are good. I asked her then who among the religous group helping at dad's funeral (from Fa Gu San) were good? She retorted all of them are good, she met with them already!

I told her she is a simpleton. She think that by talking to people and hee-hee-ha-ha (casual banter) with them for a few minutes she know their characters. She kept quiet.

Day after dad's funeral, family went to Fa Gu San for meditation. After that, I asked kids to look around place and asked how place like that makes money. Sharp Tian say by selling books (there were shelves with books). Didn't have time to tell them there are more ways like organising meditation sessions, charity drives etc where they ask for 'donations' but who knows where money goes. No time because CPQ came and herded kids off using go home as excuse. At car park, TYL and CLL followed me into my car but CPQ came rushing to my car from another and asked them to go to the other car with excuse she wanted me to drive her to buy stuff. I told her off and not to think I didn't know what she was up to. She didn't want me to talk to kids because she thought I am some devil or nut who would teach the kids wrong stuffs! CPQ retorted and said yes she did that because she did not want me to talk to the kids. I got more mad since she explicitly said that. Told her she has right to tell me she didn't want me to teach her daughter but not with mine!

See how the stupid 80% looks at the world? They can even turn things around and imagine one trying to help them or say tell the truth as the opposite! As result, they may try to 'get back' at the one doing the right thing or telling the truth (see Gandhi and Schopenhofer quotes above)

Which is why I warn about the danger with 80% types but 80% types will never know nor accept they are source of danger or disaster.

That's why I told CWL 9/2/16 morning she should always remember 80/20 rule. What the 80% type (aka simpletons, smart alecs, 'xiao chai' etc) say, think or do - we always take with handful of salt, treat it as red flag and consider the opposite. They will never be able to see things that 20% types see and as result are more likely wrong than right.


ISSUE 2
Dont know when mom stopped taking medicine and who went with her. Or if government doctor told mom to monitor closely but mom didnt get the point etc.

(I admit I did not bother to find out since I was told parents no need to depend on me and mom even implied the same when I complained about being told that)

Lessons:
If have major medical condition, never change medication including doctor, dosage, frequency etc suddenly and without double checking. Change gradually and check for risks of doing so online etc yourself.

Do not trust doctor fully (even doctors 80/20 rule applies). Always get 2nd opinion.

In Malaysia, government clinics are overloaded. So level of care is dubious. In addition, race can be factor (although we are not racist, no guarantee all doctors are not).


ISSUE 3
Mrs Gan told mom but I dont recall her telling me medicine cannot stop. Dont know if she told others or not.

Lessons:
Always repeat good or important advise a few times over and to different persons. Then check to see approprite actions etc are taken. If after that still ignored, then we have done our best.

It is human nature (self, ego) to take others for granted or ignore. Esp those with low awareness and big egos (High Level 1, Low Level 2) because they think with same 1 brain, 1 mouth, 2 eyes what more can others know that is more than them!


ISSUE 4
Why mom didn't react to Mrs Gan's info?

Lessons:
Never take others (esp 20% type) advise, comment or input for granted. Always stop, listen, think and understand the input more. If cannot do immediately, quickly save note in phone, bookmark webpage etc for later follow up.

Sometimes during discussions esp involving many people that your discussion or train of thought gets interrupted and you lose track of important input. That's why must do note taking, book marking etc. Mental bookmarking or noting at least but must be practiced (I know Tian does that as I observed her a few times when others interrupted discussions)

Worse when some bastard 80% smart alecs are involved. They would ridicule (snigger, laugh etc) or throw something totally unrelated into the discussion or input just to show they have something to contribute or to contradict! In their words, to help. That's why in Dec I was so angry with CPS when she interjected with smart alec comment when I was talking to Tian about her future uni studies! CPQ etc then got involved - more smart alecs. Original topic of uni studies lost..

If you tell them off, you become bad guy and they would say you are unreasonable etc (inversion, turn problem around). If you get angry at the for being rude, they say you crazy. That's because they really really cannot see the problem with what they were trying to do because they are 80% type and below Level 2! (see 3 Levels of Human Development http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.my/2012/01/2-pieces-of-paper-for-life.html)

So, beware of benevolent idiots.

Also why I warn the kids to be wary of people that hee-hee-ha-ha (jokers) most of the time. If they spend 80% of their time laughing at things/others, they are either jokers that have nothing serious to talk about (because of ignorance) or, worse, 'experts' in Schopenhofer's stage 1! Over time they get so adept at laughing/ridiculing others that they think they are very smart which reinforces their behavior! In Chinese, I call them 'xiao chai' (smart alecs). Simpletons (the 80%) get impressed by such people - always laugh at others, so must be very clever! (Fool's Theory). 20% type people with knowledge will see through such smart alecs in no time and tell them off. After which, they keep quiet or go elsewhere to look for someone else (other 80% type) to ridicule and impress!


SUMMARY
My view is that if any of the above 4 issues were acted upon, mom would still be alive and live another 5 to 10 years because she was still very alert, active etc and her parents lived well into their 80s. The REAL cause of death was not her condition. Science have solutions for it i.e. the medicine and monitoring device. The cause was no one knew (or bothered to act even if they knew) that close monitoring is required! That's why she did not have a blood pressure measuring machine.

Despite all the nice talk, no one (even mom herself) REALLY cared. Words are cheap. Don't trust them. Watch actions and results. Analyse, think then draw your own conclusion...

Ask this: who bothered to even find out and think about above? If you question them why not, they will tell you that it is water under the bridge (person dead already) etc. so why bother. That is how 80% lead their lives. There is always a smart alec excuse for everything...

Smart alec comment 'fuss over what's past for what? Cannot do anything about it. What's important is be happy!' is used to justify inaction on analysing a problem arising from their inaction or improper action in the first place!

It becomes a cycle of continuous inaction or improper action based on false logic repeated in a circular manner. After some time that cycle becomes their life habit and thus totally involuntary (i.e. they will not be aware of it)

Such Level 1 people will never understand the above. Anyone trying to tell them that will be taken as some nut. Worse, they will commiserate with their same type, reinforce each other and end up being more sure of their fools' perspectives. Their logic: See, I must be right because so many (fools) think the same as me!

Wrong does not cease to be wrong because the majority share in it - Leo Tolstoy

The nice ones (at least that's what they think) among them may even invert the whole thing around and tell the 20% type trying to wake them up 'why try so hard and put yourself through such suffering? Come, let me teach you how to make peace with your painful life. Go for meditation'

Such benevolent fools should be given some slapping lessons...

The difference between genius and stupidity is genius has limit - Einstein

Book on Robert Kuok

Read parts of a book on Robert Kuok at Bras Basah Popular bookstore 2 weeks back. Below is list of important things he said that I managed to get from the book.

- 2 most important things in life are raising the family and improving education of future generation as it is fundamental to a nation's progress and stability

If your plan is for 1 year, plant rice. If 10 years, plant trees. If 100 years, educate the young - Confucius

- when asked why he was so eager to help china when it started opening up during the 70s he said that he cannot forget his roots which is China and for 3,000 years ordinary Chinese led miserable lives. He saw an opportunity to contribute to turn that around

(CCK note: he quoted 3,000 years instead of 5,000 often used by many because he knew there is no historical proof of the latter)

- when Hu Jin Tao visited Malaysia and he donated rm100M to build Malaysian campus of Xiamen University, some asked why. Especially since some Malay politicians had arm twisted him and taken over some of his family's businesses (like his sugar business). He said that's because he was born in and grew up in Malaysia where his family first made their fortune. He was grateful to Malaysia for that.

(CCK note: that man refused to let the plunderers and thieves that lead the country discourage him from doing good for the rest of the country)

- Deng Xiao Ping's last official meeting as premier with foreigners was with a group of oversea Chinese businessmen where he thanked them for their contributions to help develop China. In the formal group photo Robert Kuok stood next to Deng which showed the extent of the man's contribution

(CCK note: all great people remember the contributions of others and take the effort to acknowledge them openly)

- when asked what he thought of Deng, Robert said that when talking to Deng he felt like Deng was 30-40 years his senior even though Deng was 19 years older in age

- he attributed his success to his mother whose advice to him was to always conduct business ethically (he showed CCTV interviewer a poem hand written by her to that effect before she passed on. She was a well educated woman who left home to go to Malaysia to marry his father who was an uneducated man but later managed to build a successful business. Sharp woman)

Even Fools Have Their Own Fools' Theories

[2015 updates at bottom]

Went to Tian's house (Aug 11 2012) to pick her mom up to go back to KL for 7th week commemoration of father's death (25th June 2012). Arrived around 6.30 pm. After dinner, I went to 'disturb' Tian who was at her PC and she complained that her bedroom was hot.

I told her that the room was hot because there was no air circulation through the room from outside (the air outside their house was actually cool!). The 16-inch fan (which I bought for them when they first moved in) in her room was not effective because it was placed against the wall next to her computer and was just re-circulating hot air inside the room!

Told her that the air outside their house is very cool (one can clearly feel the cool air outside the house just by stepping out) and her room would be much cooler if the outside air is introduced into the room by placing the fan at the window.

I had been telling her parents for a few years that they should open the glass door at the front of that room (so that there is a through passage) for cooler outside air to flow through her room but they had been giving all sorts of excuses over the years. One was for fear of snakes entering and then rats. I had suggested that they place mosquito netting over the door grilles to solve those problems. But nothing was done and they lived with the problem for years.

This time since Tian complained to me personally I decided to prove to her my 'theory' above by shifting the standing fan in her room to the window so that the fan can 'pull' cooler outside air into the room.

Together we shifted away her writing desk which was at the window to create space for the fan but then found that the extension power cable was not long enough. She then asked her father for a longer cable. While trying to find us one from the pergola area outside her room he hit onto a better solution.

There was another 12-inch fan (an old one from Singapore that I gave them) sitting on a table just outside Tian's room in the pergola area. He turned the fan around to point at the window of Tian's room so that it blew outside air through the window into the room!

Thinking that it was a better idea than placing the fan inside the room I shifted the larger fan and placed it next to the 12-inch fan and had both fans blowing through the window. Almost immediately Tian said that she could feel the temperature difference.

I then told her that that proved my theory and that I had told her parents that many times before - create a passage for cool outside breeze to enter and hot inside air to exit the house and to place fans at window and door openings to help with that air flow. (The way they took my suggestion must have been 'chay')

Tian then tried to come up with an excuse as to why they did not do what I had been telling them all along by saying that her mom said that the cause of the heat in her room was the lamps at the top of her room (therefore implying, I suppose, that she thought there was no solution).

I cut her short and told her that 'even fools have their own fools' theories'.

When I passed by her house 2 days later from KL I asked Tian if the fan solution above was effective. She said 'when sleeping at night it feels like air-con!'

Updates:
When I visited in 2013 I noticed that Tian was no more sleeping in her room. So took a look and those fans that used to be next to room window were no more there. (Whoever removed them must have 'chayed' the idea and not bothered to check it out nor ask Tian. Worse, Tian kept quiet and accepted it)

When buying KDK exhaust fan for mom's room from Simgapore in 2013, got additional one for Senggarang. Told Tian's parents most fan models push air from inside out and the only model that does the reverse can function both ways. I said there must be a reason for that since the engineers that design them would have considered everything (they are the 20% type). Left instructions with her dad to place fan above glass doors to push hot air from top of room out and buy a timer from MrDIY to turn on fan from around 3pm so it can start extracting hot air from room from then on so that by time Tian return from school or sleep room already cooled.

On next trip months later, I was surprised to find that the fan was installed in reverse to push air from outside into room ! So asked why that way and was told it was because at night the outside breeze flow in that direction! So I asked if room was cooler. Answer was no. Tian again not sleeping in that room. Also no timer.

I then told them that I already said there must be good reasons those fans were made to function that way why do opposite (unsaid reason: chay others, again). One can always put the horse at the back of the carriage but would not work as well. After knowing that, they should have quickly changed direction of fan.

On next trip months later (2015) brought timer for them but fan still not changed. I slept in the room and it was very hot around 3am. So next morning I asked with some anger Tian's mom why so long still no change. Tian's dad came over and said 'change, change lah why talk so loud?!' (inversion)

I was upset because i gave suggestions, bot things etc to help solve problem over so many years and they did reverse of standard convention based on their own inept theory! I was fine with that but when it was obvious that their non-conventional way didn't work they should quickly revert back right? If one wants to try put horse behind carriage but it doesn't work, one should quickly put horse back to proper position right?

Told Tian's father that if one wants to change one's fortune or environment one must act! Most people (80%) will not, which was why Chinese people live wretched lives for 5,000 years (no need science or chay those people).

My personal thought: As to the fans I bought for them and my helping over the years, it was all for comfort of his daughter but her parents still take them for granted. Worse, her dad took my eventual displeasure with their lack of initiative as fussing over small matter. Tian is almost 18 already and will soon be going for uni and leaving that house. How many years did she live in that house and with the heat in her room? Like KL house for 30 years, who cares.

Next trip at end Dec 2015 (during TYL visit) I saw fan reversed. Don't know if works.


Side Note - Tian's question on what school stream to choose:
After sharing with her my 'even fools have their theories' comment, Tian then told me that she was having diffculty deciding whether to take 'business stream' or 'sence stream' in school. She said she found science and maths 'hard' and worried that she may not be able to 'score' if she goes into science stream. Tian is very sharp and she got my fools theory comment very quickly (that was not the only instance of that) and I guess she wanted my view on her future studies.

Here are what I told her:
1. Science stream is 'hard to score' because they require real logic (real logic is not easy) and hard work, and smarter students tend to go into science stream. By going into science stream, one gets to improve one's thinking skills through science and maths better than if one is to take some other 'business' or 'arts' stream which require or has less emphasis on reasoning skills.

2. Do not do something because it is easier. That is what most people (the 80%) would do. But learning to do what 80% of people can do does not give one a differentiating advantage. One may be able to 'score' high but it is for something easy. If one can do only what 80% other people can do, then one will be competing with most other people for jobs. In that case, one only gets the income that 80% of people get. The analogy I gave her was jumping 2 feet is easy and one can score 100% but it is useless - everyone else can do it. But jumping 5 feet is not what everyone can do. Learning to jump 5 feet and scoring 50% is still better than scoring 100% on a 2 feet jump!

The next day I told her parents about her concern above and I pretended to wonder why she raised the issue with me - I wanted to fish out her parents' views so as to see if they are equipped to guide her. The response I got from her father was 'that problem (of which stream to choose) is 2 years down the road, no need to worry now!'. I kept quiet.

He has just given me the answer. The girl was thinking ahead but the father was following the popular Chinese saying 'when the boat gets to the jetty, it will align by itself'! (chuan dao qiao tou zhi ran ji). Why worry ahead?


Life Lesson 1:
In life every one including fools have their own little 'theory' (or view) on everything. The issue is how good, true or accurate it is. Not every theory is the same. Not all theories are equally close to the truth. In fact, there are more fools' theories than real insights. That is why modern scientific theories took such a long time to appear in human history. So beware of Fool's Theories! Never let your life be based on or influenced by some fools' theories.

Life Lesson 2:
Never follow the 80%. What the 80% knows and can do is not the secret to success.
Learn to do what the 80% does or learn and you will earn only what the 80% earns or live like them.

Life Lesson 3:
Thinking and Planning Ahead is what separates achievers from the 80%! Laid back ones and under-achievers take things as they come along. They do not think or plan ahead. Learning to plan or look ahead trains the mind to see a 'bigger picture'. People with big-picture will have advantage over narrow minded ones. In fact, some thinkers are of the opinion that human's ability to plan ahead is a key reason why humans got ahead of other animals.

'Chuan dao qiao tou zhi ran zi' applies only for small boats (small minds). Does not wok for Titanic...



Other 'theories':
Aquaponics with charchoal  TSP
Keeping washing machinse safe from wire eating rats  CPQ
Where got people build houses using steel?  CPY
Death because of a weekend's break from work  TSP

Not so cold means warm lah!   waitress
Government indiscrimately printing money just does not make sense!  Malay fella