CCK Note: That is why it is important to teach young children multiple languages, the earlier the better. Language researches also found that children unlike adults can handle multiple languages without problem - they are highly adaptable!
Mar 19, 2012, New York TImes
Speaking two languages rather than only one has obvious practical benefits in an increasingly globalised world. But in recent years, scientists have begun to show that the advantages of bilingualism are even more fundamental than being able to converse with a wider range of people.
Being bilingual, it turns out, makes you smarter. It can have a profound effect on your brain, improving cognitive skills not related to language and even shielding against dementia in old age.
This view of bilingualism is remarkably different from the understanding of bilingualism through much of the 20th century. Researchers, educators and policymakers long considered a second language to be an interference, cognitively speaking, that hindered a child's academic and intellectual development.
They were not wrong about the interference: There is ample evidence that in a bilingual's brain, both language systems are active even when he is using only one language, thus creating situations in which one system obstructs the other.
But this interference, researchers are finding out, isn't so much a handicap as a blessing in disguise. It forces the brain to resolve internal conflict, giving the mind a workout that strengthens its cognitive muscles.
HONING OUR FOCUS
Bilinguals, for instance, seem to be more adept than monolinguals at solving certain kinds of mental puzzles.
In a 2004 study by psychologists Ellen Bialystok and Michelle Martin-Rhee, bilingual and monolingual preschoolers were asked to sort blue circles and red squares presented on a computer screen into two digital bins - one marked with a blue square and the other marked with a red circle.
In the first task, the children had to sort the shapes by colour, placing blue circles in the bin marked with the blue square and red squares in the bin marked with the red circle. Both groups did this with comparable ease.
Next, the children were asked to sort by shape, which was more challenging because it required placing the images in a bin marked with a conflicting colour. The bilinguals were faster at performing this task.
The collective evidence from a number of such studies suggests that the bilingual experience improves the brain's so-called executive function - a command system that directs the attention processes that we use for planning, solving problems and performing various other mentally-demanding tasks.
These processes include ignoring distractions to stay focused, switching attention wilfully from one thing to another and holding information in mind - like remembering a sequence of directions while driving.
ABILITY TO KEEP TRACK
Why does the tussle between two simultaneously-active language systems improve these aspects of cognition?
Until recently, researchers thought the bilingual advantage stemmed primarily from an ability for inhibition that was honed by the exercise of suppressing one language system: This suppression, it was thought, would help train the bilingual mind to ignore distractions in other contexts.
But that explanation increasingly appears to be inadequate, since studies have shown that bilinguals perform better than monolinguals even at tasks that do not require inhibition, like threading a line through an ascending series of numbers scattered randomly on a page.
The key difference between bilinguals and monolinguals may be more basic: A heightened ability to monitor the environment.
"Bilinguals have to switch languages quite often - you may talk to your father in one language and to your mother in another language," says Mr Albert Costa, a researcher at the University of Pompea Fabra in Spain. "It requires keeping track of changes around you in the same way that we monitor our surroundings when driving."
In a study comparing German-Italian bilinguals with Italian monolinguals on monitoring tasks, Mr Costa and his colleagues found that the bilingual subjects not only performed better, but they also did so with less activity in parts of the brain involved in monitoring, indicating that they were more efficient at it.
FROM BABES TO OLD FOLK
The bilingual experience appears to influence the brain from infancy to old age (and there is reason to believe that it may also apply to those who learn a second language later in life).
In a 2009 study led by Ms Agnes Kovacs of the International School for Advanced Studies in Trieste, Italy, seven-month-old babies exposed to two languages from birth were compared with peers raised with one language.
In an initial set of trials, the infants were presented with an audio cue and then shown a puppet on one side of a screen.
Both infant groups learned to look at that side of the screen in anticipation of the puppet.
But in a later set of trials, when the puppet began appearing on the opposite side of the screen, the babies exposed to a bilingual environment quickly learned to switch their anticipatory gaze in the new direction, while the other babies did not.
Bilingualism's effects also extend into the twilight years.
In a recent study of 44 elderly Spanish-English bilinguals, scientists led by neuropsychologist Tamar Gollan of the University of California, San Diego, found that individuals with a higher degree of bilingualism - measured through a comparative evaluation of proficiency in each language - were more resistant than others to the onset of dementia and other symptoms of Alzheimer's disease: The higher the degree of bilingualism, the later the age of onset.
Nobody ever doubted the power of language. But who would have imagined that the words we hear and the sentences we speak might be leaving such a deep imprint?
THE NEW YORK TIMES
Monday, March 19, 2012
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Great Recession of 2008 (draft)
WHERE
This crisis started in the US and spread to Europe. The whole world were affected but less so than those 2 regions.
WHY
Monetary expansion (by way of increase of credit or debt esp. in US and Europe) in early/mid 2000s caused bubbles to develop in various markets (like stock, housing, commodities) all over the world.
As prices of everything rose, more and more people used borrowed money to invest and profit from rising prices.
By 2007, shares in US and Europe for example were trading at PE of 20. Average US house prices ($230K) were more than 4 times median household income ($50K).
The US and European countries had huge amounts of private and public sector debts that were more than 200% of their countries' GDP. The UK is the worst with total debt of more than 500% GDP (85% government but 800% banks and private sector)!
Those governments used private consumption financed by debts as a way to keep their economies 'growing' but those growth were not from production.
Note: Since the start of 'modern' fractional banking system about 100 years ago, debt can be created almost unlimitedly. That is why there were so many crises in the past 100 years (one every 10 years or so).
WHAT HAPPENED
World Wide
From 1990s onwards, outsourcing and shifting of factories to lower cost countries (like China which was just admitted into WTO) reduced the number of jobs available in the US and Europe.
In addition, global economy slowed/shrank as a result of the bursting of the Internet Bubble in 2001-02. To re-inflate their economies, those governments increased public spending financed by government borrowings and lowered the cost of money to encourage their people and businesses to borrow money to spend and invest.
But because most of their productive industries had already moved out or had been decimated over the decades before that, there were fewer real investment options in the western countries. As a result, the increasing borrowings were directed into their housing and financial markets which went up in value and created the illusion of wealth.
In reality, they created ponzi-like bubbles that later burst. People who borrowed early on in the cycle made a lot of money but those that joined in late suffered huge losses.
Government debt growth were also aided by global banking 'regulations' (developed by the same governments) that encouraged banks to make loans to governments. Basel II regulations, for example, did not require banks to reserve capital for holdings of OECD government bonds because of the assumption they were 'risk-free'!
US
From 2002 onwards, their Federal Reserve lent money out at very low rates and as a result there were more money available than real business to invest them in.
(Note: the terrible state of their economy may be a reason behind 'Sept 11' where the World Trade Center buildings that house a lot of bank offices were 'attacked' and a 3rd building (Building 7) that housed many government offices from CIA, DOD to SEC were 'taken down'. Documents of those bodies including thousands of SEC cases were destroyed in Building 7. Their subsequent attack of Afghanistan and Iraq were to re-stimulate the economy - by increasing spending and employment in defense sector - and to control world oil)
Some people said the other reason for so much money floating around was because foreign governments with trade surplus were 'lending' them back to the US government (by buying US treasuries). But foreign countries had so much USD because the US were printing them to buy things from foreigners in the first place. Foreigners' fault were to stupidly accept them thinking that those USD will 'keep its value'.
Banks looking for borrowers then gave easy loans to people to buy houses. The government aided by passing new laws to promote house ownership with the idea that with people rushing to buy houses, rising prices will increase consumer 'wealth' and people will spend more thus supporting the economy. That started a bubble where rising house prices enticed more and more people (including those that cannot afford it known as 'sub-prime borrowers') to jump into the housing market in the hope of making easy money. It worked till 2006 when house prices peaked.
In 2007 the housing bubble burst & house prices fell causing US banks to start collapsing in 2008 because house owners stopped servicing and repaying their loans (many loan terms allowed people to get out by just returning the house keys without further penalty). The US government stepped in to arrange for other 'more healthier' banks to buy up the small ones like Countrywide, WaMu, Bear Stearns etc. and to help mortgage holders 'restructure' their loans to try and stop people from defaulting and abandoning their houses/loans (and thus making the problem worse).
Initially, they tried to say that it was just a 'sub-prime crisis' i.e. only people who had never been able to afford the loans that were defaulting.
But the problem worsened and the US government had to bail out the bigger 'too big to fail' banks like Citibank, BOA, etc too firstly by buying the mortgage backed securities (MBS, backed by those bad housing loans) from those banks and then outright cash injection in return for share (e.g. Citibank).
In October 2008, the Fed refused to bail out Lehman Brothers and the bankruptcy of that bank triggered a huge liquidity problem in the banking system where huge amounts were withdrawn from banks (bank run) and banks refused to lend to each other for fear of being caught by another bankrupting bank.
The 'sub-prime crisis' had morphed to 'housing loan crisis' and then 'bank solvency crisis' and after that 'liquidity crisis'. Basically, all hell broke loose!
The housing bubble and banking collapse brought on a collapse of wealth and consumption thus affecting the whole economy and businesses started retrenching people to cut costs etc. Unemployment rate jumped to 10-20% depending on which measure/source is used.
Companies like GE, GM etc were also given government bailout money. Some critics called it 'iron rice bowl for the capitalists'.
To promote consumption to re-inflate the economy the government even subsidised car purchases ('Cash for Clunkers' programme). In Q4 2011, car purchases jumped 50% because of easy loans. The country just moved from easy loans to buy houses to easy loans to buy cars (car sales is 20% of total US retail sales). 45% of borrowers were 'sub-prime' (again)!
With shrinking tax from abandoned houses (housing tax is quite high in US), high unemployment and collapsing economy, municipal, state and central government revenues collapsed resulting in their inability to service their already high public debts. Again, their Fed stepped in to 'bail out'.
They were bailing out everyone but in doing that the government had effectively transferred all the bad debts previously held by banks and companies into the 'country's books' meaning the whole country (instead of bank and company shareholders) ended up having to pay for those bad debts.
All those crises above had morphed into 'sovereign debt crisis'.
The bailing out of mortgage holders, banks, companies and state/municpal/central governments by the Federal Reserve caused the US central government debt level and the country's money base (and balance sheet) to soar. The already high US federal debt increased by $4-5T (from $9T to $14.5T) and money base grew from 800B in 2008 to 2.4T in 2012.
In addition, most of the adjustable rate or ARM housing loans (esp. those by subprime borrowers) which were issued during the boom with 'teaser rates' were due for interest rate resets starting around 2010 through 2012. To pre-empt further collapse of the housing market and banks' loan books the US government actively suppressed interest rates to lighten loan servicing costs, and the Fed even announced they will keep rates low till 2014! Banks were allowed to do away with marking-to-market their bad MBS holdings to hide their loses.
To deflect world attention from the US 'refinancing problem', their media tried to focus on talks of a 'double dip' and debt problems in EU countries (like the PIIGS) as a way to spook people to stay away from stock markets and keep their money in cash and 'safe haven bonds' (meaning US bonds) which in effect reduces their borrowing cost. As result, in 2009 and 2010 I heard many people talking/advising others to 'keep cash'.
The bail out money and low interest rates in effect is 'money printing' and caused holders of US bonds like China to express concerns about the US Dollar's value, and Brazil to raise concerns of 'currency wars' (where governments compete to devalue their currencies to gain competitive advantage).
2009: US Fed started paying interest on 'excess reserves' banks put with US Fed. This allows US banks to earn interests from banks' excess cash. Bank excess cash comes from:
- 'loan loss reserves' (for bad loans)
- cash they cannot lend out due to lack of demand by people deleveraging
- cash from selling sub-prime assets to US Fed
2010 Q2-Q3: reports of US banks increasing substantially their interest rate swap (IRS) books to support low US bond interest rates and illusion of demand for US bonds and 'flight to US safety'.
2011 Q2: reports of US Fed selling put options on US bonds to support price of those bonds and keep interest rates low.
Rest of the World
In Europe and elsewhere in the world, similar housing bubbles appeared about the same time as the US housing bubble because other governments also expanded credit and money supply to 'match' the US as part of keeping their currencies from appreciating too much against USD.
In addition, the introduction of Euro in 2001 lowered cost of debt for less competitive European countries (like Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) which encouraged them to borrow more.
So when the US housing bubble collapsed, the same thing happened elsewhere to varying degrees. The government responses were also very similar all round the world - bank bail outs, reduction in interest rates, subsidies to promote consumption etc.
Europe's public debts were like the US. In addition, their banks were holding a lot of the US mortgage backed securities (MBS) 'backed' by US housing loans! (a sort of double whammy). Some of those MBS were also sold to other parts of the world.
Others in the world bought those US MBS because they were rated 'AAA' by rating agencies paid to do the rating by US banks that packaged them! In addition, all the 3 top rating agencies (S&P, Fitch, Moody's) were American! See how stupid the world is?
The first country to 'fall' was Iceland. Next was Ireland and then Greece. The top topic of the 'next one to go' was the weak PIIGS countries using the Euro: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Creece and Spain.
See separate writeup on 'Eurozone Crisis' - Europe has similar problem of over indebtedness by government and private sector as US and UK but are undertaking slightly different solutions due to their 'lack of fiscal union' and refusal to solve problem by 'money printing'.
http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eurozone-crisis.html
This crisis started in the US and spread to Europe. The whole world were affected but less so than those 2 regions.
WHY
Monetary expansion (by way of increase of credit or debt esp. in US and Europe) in early/mid 2000s caused bubbles to develop in various markets (like stock, housing, commodities) all over the world.
As prices of everything rose, more and more people used borrowed money to invest and profit from rising prices.
By 2007, shares in US and Europe for example were trading at PE of 20. Average US house prices ($230K) were more than 4 times median household income ($50K).
The US and European countries had huge amounts of private and public sector debts that were more than 200% of their countries' GDP. The UK is the worst with total debt of more than 500% GDP (85% government but 800% banks and private sector)!
Those governments used private consumption financed by debts as a way to keep their economies 'growing' but those growth were not from production.
Note: Since the start of 'modern' fractional banking system about 100 years ago, debt can be created almost unlimitedly. That is why there were so many crises in the past 100 years (one every 10 years or so).
WHAT HAPPENED
World Wide
From 1990s onwards, outsourcing and shifting of factories to lower cost countries (like China which was just admitted into WTO) reduced the number of jobs available in the US and Europe.
In addition, global economy slowed/shrank as a result of the bursting of the Internet Bubble in 2001-02. To re-inflate their economies, those governments increased public spending financed by government borrowings and lowered the cost of money to encourage their people and businesses to borrow money to spend and invest.
But because most of their productive industries had already moved out or had been decimated over the decades before that, there were fewer real investment options in the western countries. As a result, the increasing borrowings were directed into their housing and financial markets which went up in value and created the illusion of wealth.
In reality, they created ponzi-like bubbles that later burst. People who borrowed early on in the cycle made a lot of money but those that joined in late suffered huge losses.
Government debt growth were also aided by global banking 'regulations' (developed by the same governments) that encouraged banks to make loans to governments. Basel II regulations, for example, did not require banks to reserve capital for holdings of OECD government bonds because of the assumption they were 'risk-free'!
US
From 2002 onwards, their Federal Reserve lent money out at very low rates and as a result there were more money available than real business to invest them in.
(Note: the terrible state of their economy may be a reason behind 'Sept 11' where the World Trade Center buildings that house a lot of bank offices were 'attacked' and a 3rd building (Building 7) that housed many government offices from CIA, DOD to SEC were 'taken down'. Documents of those bodies including thousands of SEC cases were destroyed in Building 7. Their subsequent attack of Afghanistan and Iraq were to re-stimulate the economy - by increasing spending and employment in defense sector - and to control world oil)
Some people said the other reason for so much money floating around was because foreign governments with trade surplus were 'lending' them back to the US government (by buying US treasuries). But foreign countries had so much USD because the US were printing them to buy things from foreigners in the first place. Foreigners' fault were to stupidly accept them thinking that those USD will 'keep its value'.
Banks looking for borrowers then gave easy loans to people to buy houses. The government aided by passing new laws to promote house ownership with the idea that with people rushing to buy houses, rising prices will increase consumer 'wealth' and people will spend more thus supporting the economy. That started a bubble where rising house prices enticed more and more people (including those that cannot afford it known as 'sub-prime borrowers') to jump into the housing market in the hope of making easy money. It worked till 2006 when house prices peaked.
In 2007 the housing bubble burst & house prices fell causing US banks to start collapsing in 2008 because house owners stopped servicing and repaying their loans (many loan terms allowed people to get out by just returning the house keys without further penalty). The US government stepped in to arrange for other 'more healthier' banks to buy up the small ones like Countrywide, WaMu, Bear Stearns etc. and to help mortgage holders 'restructure' their loans to try and stop people from defaulting and abandoning their houses/loans (and thus making the problem worse).
Initially, they tried to say that it was just a 'sub-prime crisis' i.e. only people who had never been able to afford the loans that were defaulting.
But the problem worsened and the US government had to bail out the bigger 'too big to fail' banks like Citibank, BOA, etc too firstly by buying the mortgage backed securities (MBS, backed by those bad housing loans) from those banks and then outright cash injection in return for share (e.g. Citibank).
In October 2008, the Fed refused to bail out Lehman Brothers and the bankruptcy of that bank triggered a huge liquidity problem in the banking system where huge amounts were withdrawn from banks (bank run) and banks refused to lend to each other for fear of being caught by another bankrupting bank.
The 'sub-prime crisis' had morphed to 'housing loan crisis' and then 'bank solvency crisis' and after that 'liquidity crisis'. Basically, all hell broke loose!
The housing bubble and banking collapse brought on a collapse of wealth and consumption thus affecting the whole economy and businesses started retrenching people to cut costs etc. Unemployment rate jumped to 10-20% depending on which measure/source is used.
Companies like GE, GM etc were also given government bailout money. Some critics called it 'iron rice bowl for the capitalists'.
To promote consumption to re-inflate the economy the government even subsidised car purchases ('Cash for Clunkers' programme). In Q4 2011, car purchases jumped 50% because of easy loans. The country just moved from easy loans to buy houses to easy loans to buy cars (car sales is 20% of total US retail sales). 45% of borrowers were 'sub-prime' (again)!
With shrinking tax from abandoned houses (housing tax is quite high in US), high unemployment and collapsing economy, municipal, state and central government revenues collapsed resulting in their inability to service their already high public debts. Again, their Fed stepped in to 'bail out'.
They were bailing out everyone but in doing that the government had effectively transferred all the bad debts previously held by banks and companies into the 'country's books' meaning the whole country (instead of bank and company shareholders) ended up having to pay for those bad debts.
All those crises above had morphed into 'sovereign debt crisis'.
The bailing out of mortgage holders, banks, companies and state/municpal/central governments by the Federal Reserve caused the US central government debt level and the country's money base (and balance sheet) to soar. The already high US federal debt increased by $4-5T (from $9T to $14.5T) and money base grew from 800B in 2008 to 2.4T in 2012.
In addition, most of the adjustable rate or ARM housing loans (esp. those by subprime borrowers) which were issued during the boom with 'teaser rates' were due for interest rate resets starting around 2010 through 2012. To pre-empt further collapse of the housing market and banks' loan books the US government actively suppressed interest rates to lighten loan servicing costs, and the Fed even announced they will keep rates low till 2014! Banks were allowed to do away with marking-to-market their bad MBS holdings to hide their loses.
To deflect world attention from the US 'refinancing problem', their media tried to focus on talks of a 'double dip' and debt problems in EU countries (like the PIIGS) as a way to spook people to stay away from stock markets and keep their money in cash and 'safe haven bonds' (meaning US bonds) which in effect reduces their borrowing cost. As result, in 2009 and 2010 I heard many people talking/advising others to 'keep cash'.
The bail out money and low interest rates in effect is 'money printing' and caused holders of US bonds like China to express concerns about the US Dollar's value, and Brazil to raise concerns of 'currency wars' (where governments compete to devalue their currencies to gain competitive advantage).
2009: US Fed started paying interest on 'excess reserves' banks put with US Fed. This allows US banks to earn interests from banks' excess cash. Bank excess cash comes from:
- 'loan loss reserves' (for bad loans)
- cash they cannot lend out due to lack of demand by people deleveraging
- cash from selling sub-prime assets to US Fed
2010 Q2-Q3: reports of US banks increasing substantially their interest rate swap (IRS) books to support low US bond interest rates and illusion of demand for US bonds and 'flight to US safety'.
2011 Q2: reports of US Fed selling put options on US bonds to support price of those bonds and keep interest rates low.
Rest of the World
In Europe and elsewhere in the world, similar housing bubbles appeared about the same time as the US housing bubble because other governments also expanded credit and money supply to 'match' the US as part of keeping their currencies from appreciating too much against USD.
In addition, the introduction of Euro in 2001 lowered cost of debt for less competitive European countries (like Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) which encouraged them to borrow more.
So when the US housing bubble collapsed, the same thing happened elsewhere to varying degrees. The government responses were also very similar all round the world - bank bail outs, reduction in interest rates, subsidies to promote consumption etc.
Europe's public debts were like the US. In addition, their banks were holding a lot of the US mortgage backed securities (MBS) 'backed' by US housing loans! (a sort of double whammy). Some of those MBS were also sold to other parts of the world.
Others in the world bought those US MBS because they were rated 'AAA' by rating agencies paid to do the rating by US banks that packaged them! In addition, all the 3 top rating agencies (S&P, Fitch, Moody's) were American! See how stupid the world is?
The first country to 'fall' was Iceland. Next was Ireland and then Greece. The top topic of the 'next one to go' was the weak PIIGS countries using the Euro: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Creece and Spain.
See separate writeup on 'Eurozone Crisis' - Europe has similar problem of over indebtedness by government and private sector as US and UK but are undertaking slightly different solutions due to their 'lack of fiscal union' and refusal to solve problem by 'money printing'.
http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/eurozone-crisis.html
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Survival Guide
Water Purification Methods
1. Solar Disinfection (SODIS)
Materials: glass or PET bottle, piece of cloth
How:
- Filter off larger dissolved matter from water using cloth filter.
- Fill bottle with water and leave bottle in sun for 12 hours. UV rays will kill all bacteria in bottle
Note: this method is the simplest but does not remove dissolved harmful chemicals
2. Solar Powered Distillation
Materials: black painted bottle with long capillary tube attached to cap; collection bottle
How:
- Fill bottle with water. Black paint increase heat absorption.
- Place bottle on platform under the sun so that it is higher than collection bottle
- Place capillary tube and collection bottle under shade (to help with steam condensation)
3. Sand Filter
Materials:
How:
-
-
4. Wheat Grass
1. Solar Disinfection (SODIS)
Materials: glass or PET bottle, piece of cloth
How:
- Filter off larger dissolved matter from water using cloth filter.
- Fill bottle with water and leave bottle in sun for 12 hours. UV rays will kill all bacteria in bottle
Note: this method is the simplest but does not remove dissolved harmful chemicals
2. Solar Powered Distillation
Materials: black painted bottle with long capillary tube attached to cap; collection bottle
How:
- Fill bottle with water. Black paint increase heat absorption.
- Place bottle on platform under the sun so that it is higher than collection bottle
- Place capillary tube and collection bottle under shade (to help with steam condensation)
3. Sand Filter
Materials:
How:
-
-
4. Wheat Grass
Wednesday, March 07, 2012
Sources of News and Views
See notes at bottom of article on how to use links here and why they are important.
CURRENT AFFAIRS
Global News (Radio) - when on the road, listen to BBC World Service
Global News (Online Channels)
Note: If picture is not smooth, set video quality to Low or Medium where possible
http://www.euronews.net/news/streaming-live/ (EuroNews)
http://mediacenter.dw.de/english/live/ (Deustche Welle Germany)
http://rt.com/on-air/ (Russia Times)
http://www.aljazeera.com/watch_now/ (Al Jazeera - Middle East)
http://english.cntv.cn/live/index.shtml (China CCTV 5)
http://live.indiatimes.com/ (India Times Now)
http://www.ndtv.com/video/live/channel/ndtv24x7 (NDTV India)
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/ (NHK Japan)
http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ (US Bloomberg)
http://www.thedailyshow.com/ (watch The Daily Show for funny perspectives on US current affairs)
Global News (Text)
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ (China Daily)
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/bizarticlelist/1898055.cms (India Times)
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/default.asp (Indian Analyses)
http://www.presstv.ir/ (Iranian TV)
http://www.aljazeera.com/ (Al Jazeera Middle East)
http://mg.co.za/ (Mail & Guardian South Africa)
http://www.businessday.co.za/ (Business Day South Africa)
http://www.euronews.net/ (EuroNews)
http://www.dw.de/dw/home/0,,266,00.html (Deutsche Welle Germany)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/ (Spiegel Germany)
http://www.neurope.eu/world (New Europe)
http://www.neurope.eu/eu-update (New Europe)
http://edition.cnn.com/ (CNN US)
http://www.news.az/ (Azerbaijan - Central Asia)
American Analysis & Contrarian Views
http://www.theglobalist.com/
http://www.infowars.com/
http://www.salon.com/
http://open.salon.com/cover
Singapore News (Text)
http://www.todayonline.com/index ('Today' newspaper)
http://www.straitstimes.com/ (Straits Times newspaper)
http://news.xin.msn.com/en/business/ (XIN MSN Singapore News)
http://sg.yahoo.com/?p=us (Yahoo Singapore News)
DAILY MARKET NEWS
http://www.dailyfinance.com/
http://www.marketwatch.com/?link=MW_Nav_FP
http://www.businessweek.com/
http://www.forbes.com/opinions/
http://money.cnn.com/
http://www.bloomberg.com/
STOCK NEWS
http://www.investorplace.com/
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
Follow link http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/key-market-indicators.html
SOURCES OF ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Austrian & European economics views
http://mises.org/
http://www.leap2020.eu/English_r25.html
http://www.cesifo-group.de/cesifo/newsletter/CESifoNewsletter28.htm
http://www.voxeu.org/
British economic views
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/
American economic views
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/
http://www.financialsense.com/
http://www.safehaven.com/
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://www.munknee.com/newsletter/
http://www.zerohedge.com/
http://www.biiwii.com/analysis.htm
http://seekingalpha.com/
http://www.marketskeptics.com/
http://www.europac.net/
http://boombustblog.com/
Commodities
http://www.stockresearchportal.com/default.aspx (Commodities News)
http://www.miningfeeds.com/ (Mining News)
SINGAPORE MARKET NEWS & FORUMS
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/reports_singapore/
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/news_singapore/
http://www.shareking.com/index.php
http://www.valuebuddies.com/
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/forumdisplay.php?19-Market-Talk
What Singapore Insiders are Doing (set date range of 3-6 months) :
http://www.shareking.com/modules/Insider_Trade/index.php?company=&sy=2011&sm=09&sd=14&ey=2012&em=12&ed=16&insider=
http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/company_disclosure/company_announcements
MALAYSIA NEWS
http://thestar.com.my/
http://malaysianshares.blogspot.com/
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/reports_malaysia/
Malaysian Politics
http://www.youtube.com/user/mediarakyat (YouTube Online - Media Rakyat)
http://www.malaysia-today.net/
http://themalaysianinsider.com/
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/
GREATER CHINA NEWS
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/
http://www.cnanalyst.com/analystactions/
http://thechinaperspective.com/
China Stock Info Search
http://www.chinesestock.org/hklistd.asp?id=HKG:1207
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/09/03/100203550/index.htm?postversion=2007082805 (China's Top Companies as of 2007 by CNN)
HK Stock Info Search
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/advancedsearch/search_active_main.asp (HKSE)
http://hk.finance.yahoo.com/ (Yahoo Finance HK)
http://www.quamir.com/quamir/monthlyReturnsearchdetail.action?coId=876
http://www.aastocks.com/EN/Stock/CompanyFundamental.aspx?CFType=9&symbol=00214
RUSSIA NEWS
http://rt.com/on-air/
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/news_russia/
http://eng.investfunds.ru/
http://www.news.az/articles/economy
http://www.russia-briefing.com/
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/news_russia/
http://www.rustocks.com/index.phtml/Pressreleases/
http://russia-briefing.com/news/category/industry/oil-gas-petroleum/
http://www.gazprom.com/
Some useful links to search for INDIVIDUAL COMPANY share price history, financials, announcements & news
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=h02.si
http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI#
http://www.transnationale.org/countries/idns.php (Global Company Database - Very Good)
http://www.adrbnymellon.com/dr_industry_profile.jsp?industry=BNK (BONY ADR database)
How to Use the Links provided above:
1. Keep this link in your internet browser's favorite folder
2. Know What is Happening in the World (CURRENT AFFAIRS): Everyday watch online news channels anytime of day, and read text news from the various global and Singapore sources listed. When you are on the road, tune to news radio channels like the BBC World Service which gives good update on current affairs, history and developments in science etc.
3. Know What is Happening in World Economy (DAILY MARKET NEWS, ECONOMIC ANALYSES): Everyday visit some of the sites listed (over time you would know which site is your favourite)
4. Scan Titles for Big Picture: Scan titles of news or articles for new or interesting topics. Read the interesting ones. There are too many articles to read all everyday. Look out for 'Macro Economic Linkages' (how one event is related to other events elsewhere) http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/macro-economic-linkages.html
5. Know More Details (KEY MARKET INDICATORS, COUNTRY specific news): Once a while, take a look at some key economic and market indicators (for big picture view) or go to country specific sections when you need more details from/about that country.
6. Company Details: Last section provide links to sites where you can get information about individual companies around the world like share price history, company financials, etc.
Caution:
1. Remember 'Elephant and Blindmen' - never believe what is said in any one article or source from a country, always check other sources from other parts of the world and think!
2. History is the key. News reports are just snapshots of what happened yesterday. Just like a 1 second snippet from a 2 hour movie, one cannot tell the true story by just looking at the snippet. 'Daily news' are of little value for people without 'big picture' and knowledge of history.
Notes:
1. Key Economic Indicators of US listed above are just indicators on state of US economy and is not applicable to the whole world! They are watched because the US is (was) the world largest consumer and buy things from all round the world. When their economy is not doing well, others who sell to them MAY suffer along. But that will not be the case in future when the US becomes less relevant to the world.
2. Each news source is like a different window to the world, each allows you to look at the outside at a different angle. It is your responsibility to put those different perspectives together to form the best picture.
3. Powerful people use the press to manipulate public opinions to their favour. That is why all governments want to control the newspapers in their countries by either directly owning them or issuing printing licenses to people who support them.
Quotes:
Those who don't read newspapers are under-informed, those who do are mis-informed - Mark Twain
Freedom of the press is limited to those who own one - AJ Liebling
Men who do not know history will forever be boys - Tacitus (Roman Historian)
CURRENT AFFAIRS
Global News (Radio) - when on the road, listen to BBC World Service
Global News (Online Channels)
Note: If picture is not smooth, set video quality to Low or Medium where possible
http://www.euronews.net/news/streaming-live/ (EuroNews)
http://mediacenter.dw.de/english/live/ (Deustche Welle Germany)
http://rt.com/on-air/ (Russia Times)
http://www.aljazeera.com/watch_now/ (Al Jazeera - Middle East)
http://english.cntv.cn/live/index.shtml (China CCTV 5)
http://live.indiatimes.com/ (India Times Now)
http://www.ndtv.com/video/live/channel/ndtv24x7 (NDTV India)
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/ (NHK Japan)
http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/ (US Bloomberg)
http://www.thedailyshow.com/ (watch The Daily Show for funny perspectives on US current affairs)
Global News (Text)
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ (China Daily)
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/bizarticlelist/1898055.cms (India Times)
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/default.asp (Indian Analyses)
http://www.presstv.ir/ (Iranian TV)
http://www.aljazeera.com/ (Al Jazeera Middle East)
http://mg.co.za/ (Mail & Guardian South Africa)
http://www.businessday.co.za/ (Business Day South Africa)
http://www.euronews.net/ (EuroNews)
http://www.dw.de/dw/home/0,,266,00.html (Deutsche Welle Germany)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/ (Spiegel Germany)
http://www.neurope.eu/world (New Europe)
http://www.neurope.eu/eu-update (New Europe)
http://edition.cnn.com/ (CNN US)
http://www.news.az/ (Azerbaijan - Central Asia)
American Analysis & Contrarian Views
http://www.theglobalist.com/
http://www.infowars.com/
http://www.salon.com/
http://open.salon.com/cover
Singapore News (Text)
http://www.todayonline.com/index ('Today' newspaper)
http://www.straitstimes.com/ (Straits Times newspaper)
http://news.xin.msn.com/en/business/ (XIN MSN Singapore News)
http://sg.yahoo.com/?p=us (Yahoo Singapore News)
DAILY MARKET NEWS
http://www.dailyfinance.com/
http://www.marketwatch.com/?link=MW_Nav_FP
http://www.businessweek.com/
http://www.forbes.com/opinions/
http://money.cnn.com/
http://www.bloomberg.com/
STOCK NEWS
http://www.investorplace.com/
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
Follow link http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/key-market-indicators.html
SOURCES OF ECONOMIC ANALYSES
Austrian & European economics views
http://mises.org/
http://www.leap2020.eu/English_r25.html
http://www.cesifo-group.de/cesifo/newsletter/CESifoNewsletter28.htm
http://www.voxeu.org/
British economic views
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/
American economic views
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/
http://www.financialsense.com/
http://www.safehaven.com/
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://www.munknee.com/newsletter/
http://www.zerohedge.com/
http://www.biiwii.com/analysis.htm
http://seekingalpha.com/
http://www.marketskeptics.com/
http://www.europac.net/
http://boombustblog.com/
Commodities
http://www.stockresearchportal.com/default.aspx (Commodities News)
http://www.miningfeeds.com/ (Mining News)
SINGAPORE MARKET NEWS & FORUMS
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/reports_singapore/
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/news_singapore/
http://www.shareking.com/index.php
http://www.valuebuddies.com/
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/forumdisplay.php?19-Market-Talk
What Singapore Insiders are Doing (set date range of 3-6 months) :
http://www.shareking.com/modules/Insider_Trade/index.php?company=&sy=2011&sm=09&sd=14&ey=2012&em=12&ed=16&insider=
http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/company_disclosure/company_announcements
MALAYSIA NEWS
http://thestar.com.my/
http://malaysianshares.blogspot.com/
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/reports_malaysia/
Malaysian Politics
http://www.youtube.com/user/mediarakyat (YouTube Online - Media Rakyat)
http://www.malaysia-today.net/
http://themalaysianinsider.com/
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/
GREATER CHINA NEWS
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/
http://www.cnanalyst.com/analystactions/
http://thechinaperspective.com/
China Stock Info Search
http://www.chinesestock.org/hklistd.asp?id=HKG:1207
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/09/03/100203550/index.htm?postversion=2007082805 (China's Top Companies as of 2007 by CNN)
HK Stock Info Search
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/advancedsearch/search_active_main.asp (HKSE)
http://hk.finance.yahoo.com/ (Yahoo Finance HK)
http://www.quamir.com/quamir/monthlyReturnsearchdetail.action?coId=876
http://www.aastocks.com/EN/Stock/CompanyFundamental.aspx?CFType=9&symbol=00214
RUSSIA NEWS
http://rt.com/on-air/
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/news_russia/
http://eng.investfunds.ru/
http://www.news.az/articles/economy
http://www.russia-briefing.com/
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/news_russia/
http://www.rustocks.com/index.phtml/Pressreleases/
http://russia-briefing.com/news/category/industry/oil-gas-petroleum/
http://www.gazprom.com/
Some useful links to search for INDIVIDUAL COMPANY share price history, financials, announcements & news
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=h02.si
http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI#
http://www.transnationale.org/countries/idns.php (Global Company Database - Very Good)
http://www.adrbnymellon.com/dr_industry_profile.jsp?industry=BNK (BONY ADR database)
How to Use the Links provided above:
1. Keep this link in your internet browser's favorite folder
2. Know What is Happening in the World (CURRENT AFFAIRS): Everyday watch online news channels anytime of day, and read text news from the various global and Singapore sources listed. When you are on the road, tune to news radio channels like the BBC World Service which gives good update on current affairs, history and developments in science etc.
3. Know What is Happening in World Economy (DAILY MARKET NEWS, ECONOMIC ANALYSES): Everyday visit some of the sites listed (over time you would know which site is your favourite)
4. Scan Titles for Big Picture: Scan titles of news or articles for new or interesting topics. Read the interesting ones. There are too many articles to read all everyday. Look out for 'Macro Economic Linkages' (how one event is related to other events elsewhere) http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/macro-economic-linkages.html
5. Know More Details (KEY MARKET INDICATORS, COUNTRY specific news): Once a while, take a look at some key economic and market indicators (for big picture view) or go to country specific sections when you need more details from/about that country.
6. Company Details: Last section provide links to sites where you can get information about individual companies around the world like share price history, company financials, etc.
Caution:
1. Remember 'Elephant and Blindmen' - never believe what is said in any one article or source from a country, always check other sources from other parts of the world and think!
2. History is the key. News reports are just snapshots of what happened yesterday. Just like a 1 second snippet from a 2 hour movie, one cannot tell the true story by just looking at the snippet. 'Daily news' are of little value for people without 'big picture' and knowledge of history.
Notes:
1. Key Economic Indicators of US listed above are just indicators on state of US economy and is not applicable to the whole world! They are watched because the US is (was) the world largest consumer and buy things from all round the world. When their economy is not doing well, others who sell to them MAY suffer along. But that will not be the case in future when the US becomes less relevant to the world.
2. Each news source is like a different window to the world, each allows you to look at the outside at a different angle. It is your responsibility to put those different perspectives together to form the best picture.
3. Powerful people use the press to manipulate public opinions to their favour. That is why all governments want to control the newspapers in their countries by either directly owning them or issuing printing licenses to people who support them.
Quotes:
Those who don't read newspapers are under-informed, those who do are mis-informed - Mark Twain
Freedom of the press is limited to those who own one - AJ Liebling
Men who do not know history will forever be boys - Tacitus (Roman Historian)
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
By Gold
Article by Jeff Clark of Casey Research dated 26 Feb 2012
Have you ever had any doubts about gold? Does it sometimes feel like it should be performing better? Are you concerned about its volatility? Do you worry about how it might perform in the future? Have you ever wondered about its true purchasing power? Maybe you’re nervous about a big drop in price again? I decided to go directly to the source to address these concerns: Gold himself. He put his arm around me and asked me to tell you a few things...— Jeff Clark, Casey Research
I hear that you’ve had some worries about me. I understand. Your world is a very uncertain place right now. And when it comes to money, it looks as though your leaders don’t understand some basic monetary principles, making things even more unsettling.
But I want you to know that the problems you’re experiencing are actually nothing new. I’ve seen these monetary, fiscal, and economic difficulties many times before. And I can tell you this: you’re safe with me. That’s a bold proclamation, but I’ve provided monetary protection numerous times throughout history — too many to count, in fact. I’ve served all kinds of people over the centuries, from kings and counts to serfs and servants.
To put your mind at ease, let’s review my core characteristics, along with some history, to show how I can protect you against the monetary danger that’s likely to worsen in your near future. We’ll also take a look at your peculiar set of circumstances to see how I can be of service. By the time we’re done, I think you’ll feel much better about my ability to help your portfolio withstand whatever is thrown its way.
Enduring Characteristics
Let’s start with the basics. I have some characteristics that no other matter on Earth has...
I cannot be:
And by the way, don’t fret about those who say I’m not as good an asset as an income-producing vehicle. They misunderstand my role. I’m not trying to be a stock, for example. My function is as money and a store of value, so the proper comparison is to your dollars, or what you call Treasury Bills (of similar nominal value). And here is where I excel and serve my purpose: since 1913, the US dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power. I have lost none.
Remember, I am the only financial asset that is not simultaneously someone else’s liability. I don’t require the backing of any bank or government.
The History Lesson
Because I am eons old, I’ve observed something throughout history that you may not be aware of: government fiat currencies are a relatively new invention, and none has endured.
Eventually, they have all failed. Me? I’ve never been defaulted on or worth zero. Remember this the next time you have any doubts about my long-term worth.
You can rest assured that over time, I will hold my value. And when you near the end of your life, you can pass me on to your loved ones, knowing full well they will have something that cannot be devalued, debased, or destroyed.
What Color Is Your Money?
Like you, I’m concerned about the current state of fiscal and monetary affairs. It seems your government leaders have boxed themselves into a corner. They’ve incurred too much debt and are spending too much money. It’s important that you understand some lessons from history about this kind of behavior so that you’re certain of what I can do for you.
The common denominators that lead to the downfall of every fiat currency are the two big Ds: debts and deficits. With that in mind, consider the following:
This is also the reason why I’m not in a bubble, as some have tried to claim. It is your central banks and bond markets that are in a bubble. The fact that my price is rising is a warning that what your leaders are doing is unsustainable and potentially dangerous to your currency.
Think about this: the US has debt backed by debt, based on debt, dependent on debt, and leveraged with debt. You can, for example, buy a bond (i.e., lend money) on margin (i.e., with borrowed money). This is not a sound way to run financial markets.
Meanwhile, the warning bells continue to sound regarding Europe’s debt crisis. In just the past 30 days:
Once again, I encourage you to use me to protect some of your wealth.
How Much Is Enough?
Given the state of your monetary system, you should accumulate me (and silver) on a regular basis. Just buy some every month and put it in a safe place. After what I’ve witnessed throughout history, and based on the current path your government leaders insist on pursuing, I suggest using me as your savings vehicle instead of putting dollars in a bank.
If you don’t own enough of me when these fiscal troubles really accelerate, I fear you will regret it. I’ve warned many in the past about the dilution of nations’ currencies, and those who didn’t heed my warnings experienced severe financial pain. Excuses won’t pay the mortgage nor feed the family when the effects of currency debasement hit your home and pocketbook.
Make sure you own enough of me to make a difference to your portfolio. This means having more than a couple coins or a few shares of GLD, the latter of which is only a proxy for my price.
How do you know if you own enough? Ask yourself:
Buy a sufficient amount so that as your currency continues to lose value, your portfolio won’t. If you do your part, I promise I’ll do mine.
Your monetary friend,
Gold
Have you ever had any doubts about gold? Does it sometimes feel like it should be performing better? Are you concerned about its volatility? Do you worry about how it might perform in the future? Have you ever wondered about its true purchasing power? Maybe you’re nervous about a big drop in price again? I decided to go directly to the source to address these concerns: Gold himself. He put his arm around me and asked me to tell you a few things...— Jeff Clark, Casey Research
I hear that you’ve had some worries about me. I understand. Your world is a very uncertain place right now. And when it comes to money, it looks as though your leaders don’t understand some basic monetary principles, making things even more unsettling.
But I want you to know that the problems you’re experiencing are actually nothing new. I’ve seen these monetary, fiscal, and economic difficulties many times before. And I can tell you this: you’re safe with me. That’s a bold proclamation, but I’ve provided monetary protection numerous times throughout history — too many to count, in fact. I’ve served all kinds of people over the centuries, from kings and counts to serfs and servants.
To put your mind at ease, let’s review my core characteristics, along with some history, to show how I can protect you against the monetary danger that’s likely to worsen in your near future. We’ll also take a look at your peculiar set of circumstances to see how I can be of service. By the time we’re done, I think you’ll feel much better about my ability to help your portfolio withstand whatever is thrown its way.
Enduring Characteristics
Let’s start with the basics. I have some characteristics that no other matter on Earth has...
I cannot be:
- Printed (ask a miner how long it takes to find me and dig me up)
- Counterfeited (you can try, but a scale will catch it every time)
- Inflated (I can’t be reproduced)
- Fire (it takes heat at least 1945.4 degrees F. to melt me)
- Water (I don’t rust or tarnish)
- Time (my coins remain recognizable after a thousand years)
- Feeding (like cattle)
- Fertilizer (like corn)
- Maintenance (like printing presses)
- Time limit (most metal is still in existence)
- Counterparty risk (remember MF Global?)
- Shelf life (I never expire)
- Malleable (I spread without cracking)
- Ductile (I stretch without breaking)
- Beautiful (I am the ultimate accessory)
- Liquid (easily convertible to cash)
- Portable (you can conveniently hold $30,000 in one hand)
- Divisible (you can use me in tiny fractions)
- Consistent (I am the same in any quantity, at any place)
- Private (no one has to know you own me)
And by the way, don’t fret about those who say I’m not as good an asset as an income-producing vehicle. They misunderstand my role. I’m not trying to be a stock, for example. My function is as money and a store of value, so the proper comparison is to your dollars, or what you call Treasury Bills (of similar nominal value). And here is where I excel and serve my purpose: since 1913, the US dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power. I have lost none.
Remember, I am the only financial asset that is not simultaneously someone else’s liability. I don’t require the backing of any bank or government.
The History Lesson
Because I am eons old, I’ve observed something throughout history that you may not be aware of: government fiat currencies are a relatively new invention, and none has endured.
Eventually, they have all failed. Me? I’ve never been defaulted on or worth zero. Remember this the next time you have any doubts about my long-term worth.
You can rest assured that over time, I will hold my value. And when you near the end of your life, you can pass me on to your loved ones, knowing full well they will have something that cannot be devalued, debased, or destroyed.
What Color Is Your Money?
Like you, I’m concerned about the current state of fiscal and monetary affairs. It seems your government leaders have boxed themselves into a corner. They’ve incurred too much debt and are spending too much money. It’s important that you understand some lessons from history about this kind of behavior so that you’re certain of what I can do for you.
The common denominators that lead to the downfall of every fiat currency are the two big Ds: debts and deficits. With that in mind, consider the following:
- Detailed studies of government debt levels over the past 100 years show that debts have never been repaid (in original currency units) when they have exceeded 80% of GDP. US government debt will exceed 100% of GDP this year.
- Investment legend Marc Faber reports that once a country’s payments on debt exceed 30% of tax revenue, the currency is “done for.” By some estimates, the US will hit that ratio this year.
- Peter Bernholz, a leading expert on hyperinflation, states unequivocally that “hyperinflation is caused by government budget deficits.” Next year’s US budget deficit is projected to be $1.3 trillion.
This is also the reason why I’m not in a bubble, as some have tried to claim. It is your central banks and bond markets that are in a bubble. The fact that my price is rising is a warning that what your leaders are doing is unsustainable and potentially dangerous to your currency.
Think about this: the US has debt backed by debt, based on debt, dependent on debt, and leveraged with debt. You can, for example, buy a bond (i.e., lend money) on margin (i.e., with borrowed money). This is not a sound way to run financial markets.
Meanwhile, the warning bells continue to sound regarding Europe’s debt crisis. In just the past 30 days:
- Moody’s cautioned that it may cut the triple-A status of France, Austria, and the UK; and it downgraded six other European nations including Italy, Spain, and Portugal.
- Standard & Poor’s cut the triple-A status of France and Austria, while Italy, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Malta, Slovakia, and Slovenia were downgraded.
- Fitch downgraded Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia, and Spain, and stated there was a 50% chance of further cuts in the next two years.
- Standard & Poor’s downgraded 34 of Italy’s 37 banks.
- Moody’s warned just last week that it may cut the credit ratings of 17 global financial institutions and 114 European ones.
Once again, I encourage you to use me to protect some of your wealth.
How Much Is Enough?
Given the state of your monetary system, you should accumulate me (and silver) on a regular basis. Just buy some every month and put it in a safe place. After what I’ve witnessed throughout history, and based on the current path your government leaders insist on pursuing, I suggest using me as your savings vehicle instead of putting dollars in a bank.
If you don’t own enough of me when these fiscal troubles really accelerate, I fear you will regret it. I’ve warned many in the past about the dilution of nations’ currencies, and those who didn’t heed my warnings experienced severe financial pain. Excuses won’t pay the mortgage nor feed the family when the effects of currency debasement hit your home and pocketbook.
Make sure you own enough of me to make a difference to your portfolio. This means having more than a couple coins or a few shares of GLD, the latter of which is only a proxy for my price.
How do you know if you own enough? Ask yourself:
- If inflation returns, or even hyperinflation hits...
- If the economy is flat...
- If uncertainty and fear continue around the globe...
- If stock markets languish...
- If the amount of spending from the world’s governments proves futile...
- If government interference in the economy continues to increase...
- If the value of the US dollar takes a major fall...
- If the world enters a recession or depression...
- If you wonder if you have enough “safe” money...
Buy a sufficient amount so that as your currency continues to lose value, your portfolio won’t. If you do your part, I promise I’ll do mine.
Your monetary friend,
Gold
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Price Trend & Technical Indicators
Notes on technical indicators:
- Since many people use them, they can be self-fulfilling since everyone will react the same way- Use indicators over 3, 6 and 12 months time horizon
- Do not rely on only one indicator but watch out for multiple indicators to confirm
- Always look out for divergences (see below)
- Final decision must be based on fundamentals of economy, the company and its industry
- Review Market Indicators to set big picture before using technical indicators
http://cckplanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/key-market-indicators.html
| BUY or UP Indicator | SELL or DOWN Indicator | |
| LEI (US only) | Hit bottom (< -5) and turns upward | Down trend & go below 0 |
| VIX (US mainly) | VIX > 30-40 and hits bottom of Wide VIX Bollinger Band | VIX < 20 and spikes up from Narrow VIX Bollinger Band |
| Margin of Safety | PE < 8; Dividend > 8% | PE > 20; Dividend < 3% |
| P/FCF < 6, P/OCF < 3 P/Rev < 0.7 P/Book < 0.7, NAV discount 30% | P/FCF > 15, P/OCF > 6 P/Rev > 2.5 P/Book > 2, NAV premium 100% | |
| Insider Actions Industry | Insiders buying continuously Company not in Sunset industry Not narrow/niche/hype market | Insiders selling continuously Company in Sunset industry In narrow/niche/hype market |
| BUY or UP Indicator | SELL or DOWN Indicator | |
Divergences Cross-Road Capitulation | As price trend down: - volume go down - MACD with higher lows - W%R >80 then turn up - RSI >70 & higher lows Doji (indecision) appear Gap between falling daily candles 3-4 days in a row | As price trend up: - volume go down - MACD with lower highs - W%R <20 then turn down - RSI <30 & lower peaks Doji (indecision) appear |
| Bollinger Band & Trade Volume MACD (3-6 months) | After price loss, band narrows & flattens, and volume drops (not many sellers left) Low MACD turn up AND higher bottoms as price go down, | After price gain, band narrows & flattens, and volume drops (not many buyers) High MACD turn down AND lower highs as price up |
| Moving Average | 20D MA bottom & go abv 50DMA 50D MA bottom & go abv 90/200D | 20D MA top & go below 50D MA 50D MA top & go below 90/200D |
| Williams %R (3-6 months) | Price trend down but %R bottoms trend up fr below -80 (oversold) AND %R Spike UP to above 50 (suddenly lots of buying at low price) | Price trend up but %R tops trend down fr -20 (overbot) AND/OR %R Dive DOWN sharply from -20 (suddenly lots of selling at high price) |
| Slow Stochastic (3-6 months) Rate of Change | Below 20 (oversold) & %K go above %D Below -50 & turn up | Above 80 (overbot) & %K go above %D Above +100 & then go below 50 |
| (60 day) | ||
| Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) Money Flow Index (3-6 months) | Below 30 (oversold) Hit below 20 (oversold) and bottoms trend up as price go lower or flat | Above 70 (overbot) Hit above 80 (overbot) and tops trend down as price go higher or flat |
| Advance-Decline Line (for mkt indices) | both index and A/D line uptrend | index up but A/D line turn down |
| Doubles | Double Bottoms | Double Tops |
| Triples | Triple bottoms | Triple tops |
| Rounded bottoms | Wide bottom U-shape, bowl | |
| Head & Shoulders | Inverted H&S and goes above neckline | H&S and goes below neckline |
| Wedge | Falling wedge | Upward wedge |
| break upwards from descending triangle | break downwards from ascending triangle |
P/FCF (Price Over Free Cash Flow)
What is it: How much net cash is generated per share by company vs price of share
FCF is more indicative of actual income of company (vs accounting profit) because FCF includes depreciation and amortisation which are not real but 'accounting expenses'.
See also other close equivalents: Operating Cash Flow, Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortisation (OIBDA)
VIX (volatility index) http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX#symbol=%5Evix;range=1y;compare=;indicator=bollinger+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
What is it: Calculated figure derived from option prices of S&P stocks that indicate potential S&P price change within next 12 months. E.g. VIX 15 means S&P price may move by 15% within 12 months. When index is low it indicates people expect prices to be relatively stable for next 12 months.
How to use:
- When S&P is cheap, VIX high (above 40) and CLEARLY retrace down to 20-30, time to buy
- When S&P is expensive, VIX low (low teens) and start STEEP climb above 20, time to sell
MACD (Moving Average) http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FSSTI:IND/chart
What is it: Shows moving average price for previous 20, 50, 90 or 200 days.
How to use (example):
- When 20ma cross above 50ma, and price trend up: bottom reached, price likely to go higher (buy)
- When 20ma cross below 50ma, and price trend down: top reached, price likely to go lower (sell)
INSIDER ACTIONS
What is it: Shows what insiders who know the company best are doing. Insiders may be senior staff, director, majority owners or substantial shareholders.
How to use (example):
- When insiders keep buying, buy
- When insiders keep selling, sell
Singapore: http://www.shareking.com/modules/Insider_Trade/
US: http://www.insidermonkey.com/insider-trading/
May 2013 http://www.munknee.com/2013/06/timing-the-market-using-trend-indicators/
By: Lorimer Wilson (www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com) and editor of www.munKNEE.com.
(Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article reposting with a link* to the article source to avoid copyright infringement.)
There are over 80 market indicators divided into 6 categories (trend, momentum, volatility, market strength, support/resistance and cycle). That being said some are very technical, some are infrequently used and some are more effective than others. The most popular indicators, and also available for use free at online charting service such as stockcharts.com and/or bigcharts.com, are those regarding:
- market trends
- market momentum (see here for a description of use of these indicators) and
- market strength and volatility (see here)
It is always hard to know what to buy or sell let alone just when to do so. Thank goodness there are indicators available that provide such information. Below are descriptions of the 7 most popular trend indicators: Crossovers; Moving Average Convergence Divergence; Percentage Price Oscillator; Keltner Channels; Parabolic SAR; Traders’ Index; and Advance/Decline Line.
Trend Indicators
The price movement of a security over time is most easily analyzed by observing how its moving averages are trending. Either a simple moving average (where the movement during a specific time period is divided by the days of that time period) or an exponential moving average (where a mathematical formula gives greater emphasis to the more recent price movement) can be used and any period of time (up to 360 days on the various fine charting sites) can be studied.
The most common short-term time period is 20- or 21-days using an exponential moving average (ema), while the most popular medium-term periods are the 39- or 40- and 50-day using a simple moving average (ma).
To observe the long-term trend of the price movement of a security a 200-day ma is usually used and occasionally a 100-day ma. That being said, a large number of variations have been developed to satisfy particular needs and situations.
7 of the most popular trend indicators are as follows:
1. Crossovers
- used to forecast the future movements in the price of a stock such as when a stock or index moves above (bullish) or below (bearish) its 20-day moving average.
When a security’s long-term moving average (e.g. 50-day ma or ema) moves above its short-term moving average (e.g. 20-day ma or ema) it is referred to as a Death Cross and indicates a bear market on the immediate horizon, especially when it is reinforced by high trading volumes. Conversely, when a security’s short-term moving average moves above its long-term moving average, coupled with high trading volumes, it is referred to as a Golden Cross and indicates a bull market on the immediate horizon.
2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
- a trend-following momentum indicator of the exponential moving average (ema) of a stock or index which is used to identify short-term momentum. Specifically, the 26-day ema of a stock or index is subtracted from the 12-day ema to show an intermediate trend line. A 9-day ema, the ‘signal line,’ is then plotted over that intermediate term line to identify when to buy or sell the stock or index. When the resultant MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal, which indicates that it may be time to sell.
Conversely, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggests that the price of the asset is likely to experience upward momentum. Many traders wait for a confirmed cross above the signal line before buying or selling to avoid doing so too early and thereby avoid being ‘faked out’.
Traders also watch for a move above or below the zero line because this signals the position of the short-term average relative to the intermediate-term average. When the MACD is above zero, the short-term average is above the intermediate-term average, which signals upward momentum. The opposite is true when the MACD is below zero. The zero line often acts as an area of support and resistance for the indicator.
3. Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO)
- similar to the MACD but while the MACD shows the simple difference between the 2 exponential moving averages the PPO expresses this difference as a percentage which allows a trader to compare stocks with different prices more easily.
For example, regardless of the stock’s price, a PPO result of 10 means the short-term average is 10% above the intermediate-term average. That makes it much easier to choose one stock over another should the need arise.
4. Keltner Channels
- moving average bands/channels where the upper line represents the average high of a security over a 10-day period; the lower band the average low of a security over a 10-day period and the centre line the closing price of a security over the same 10-day period.
The trader is to sell the security when the closing price exceeds the upper band and to buy the security when the closing price falls outside the lower band. Like the other indicators mentioned it is best to add two or three other indicators to one’s charts to confirm any buy/sell signal.
5. Parabolic SAR
- used to determine the direction of a security’s momentum and the point in time when this momentum has a higher-than-normal probability of switching directions.
The parabolic SAR is shown as a series of dots placed either below a security’s price on a chart (a bullish signal causing traders to expect the momentum to remain in the upward direction) or above (a signal that the bears are in control and that the momentum is likely to remain downward).
As the price of the security rises, the dots will rise as well, first slowly (i.e. spaced well apart) and then picking up speed (i.e. getting closer and closer together) and accelerating with the trend. This accelerating system allows the investor to watch the trend develop and establish itself. The SAR starts to move a little faster as the trend develops and the dots soon catch up to the price line and that is when it is time to buy the security. A sell signal is triggered when the price line moves below the lower dot enabling an investor to position a stop-loss order.
The ability for the parabolic SAR to respond to changing conditions removes all human emotion and allows the trader to be disciplined. On the other hand, while the SAR works extremely well when a security is trending, it can lead to many false signals when the price moves sideways or is trading in a choppy market. That being the case, it is paramount that other indicators such as the stochastic oscillator, moving averages, etc. be used to ensure that all information is being considered.
6. Traders’ Index (TRIN)
- a short-term breadth indicator which measures the ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks and compares it to the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume.
When advancing volume exhibits discordance with the raw number of advancing stocks, the all-important sell signal is given. Conversely, when volume on the downside increases out of proportion with the number of declining stocks, an upside reversal is said to be imminent.
It is important to note that TRIN is handled differently in each of the different market conditions. In a bull market, the overbought line is placed at 0.65 or 0.70 but in a bear market at 0.70 or 0.75. The oversold line is placed at 0.90 or 0.95 in a bull market and at 1.00 or 1.10 in bear markets. Assuming the market has been correctly identified as a bull or a bear and the overbought and oversold lines have been correctly placed you should buy when the current TRIN crosses above its oversold line and sell when TRIN sinks below its upper overbought line.
When interpreted properly, TRIN can be one of the most powerful and accurate means of assessing the psychology of the market.
7. Advance/Decline Line (A/D)
- used to confirm the strength of a current trend and its likelihood of reversing. If the markets are up but the A/D line is sloping downwards, it’s usually a sign that the markets are losing their breadth and may be setting up to head in the other direction. If the slope of the A/D line is up and the market is trending upward then the market is said to be healthy.
Remember, the trend is your friend and now you have an arsenal of such indicators to make an extensive and in-depth assessment of whether you should be buying or selling. If ever there was a “cut and save” investment advisory this article is it.
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